How long will Tim Duncan remain an all-star?

[luigi>mario]

Tim is signed with the Spurs for 4 more seasons, through 2011-12.
I was hoping we can expect Tim to decline enough to let the Spurs turn into the perennial 7/8 seed. Comparing his numbers to some other greats:

Tim Duncan
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/tim_duncan/career_stats.html
Strong year in 01-02: he turned 26.
Looks to me like 04-05 was a small drop off: he turned 29 that year.
He turned 32 this year.


Kevin Garnet
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/kevin_garnett/career_stats.html
Strong year in 03-04: he turned 28.
Hard to mark a big step off, more gradual.
Same age as Duncan.


Olonzo Mourning
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/alonzo_mourning/career_stats.html
Had a hiccup at 00-01 (injury): he turned 31 that year.
Never fully came back. Probably not a good comparison.


Dikembe Mutombo
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/dikembe_mutombo/career_stats.html
Drop at 02-03: he turned 37 that year.
He is 42 now.


Shaquille O’Neal
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/shaquille_oneal/career_stats.html
Good year in 99-00: he turned 28.
It started in 03-04: he turned 32 then. Steady drop after that.
He is 36 now.


Karl Malone
http://www.nba.com/historical/playerfile/index.html?player=karl_malone
Strong year in 89-90: turned 27.
Slow decline through the rest. Rebounding drop at 95-96: tuned 33.


Moses Malone
http://www.nba.com/historical/playerfile/index.html?player=moses_malone
Good year in 81-82: turned 27.
I put stage 1 at 85-86: turned 31.
Looks like stage 2 at 90-91: turned 36.


David Robinson
http://www.nba.com/historical/playerfile/index.html?player=david_robinson
Strong year in 93-94: turned 29 at end of season.
Decline at 96-97(injury), came back, but not full: turned 32.


Patrick Ewing
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/patrick_ewing/career_stats.html
Good year in 89-90: turned 28 after season.
Decline in 97-98 (injury?): turned 36 after season.


Hakeem Olajuwan
http://www.nba.com/historical/playerfile/index.html?player=hakeem_olajuwon
Strong in 89-90: turned 27. Scoring went up later.
Drop off starts at 97-98: turned 35.

So, after looking at all of that, can we expect Duncan to become less effective immediately, or does he some good winning years left? Is it enough to get back to another title carried by Duncan?

[SayTownRy]

his style of play is conducive to being very successful for a few more years imo

sure others are going to put up better #'s, and he may be 2nd team all nba, instead of 1st team, but still... who would you rather have in a 7 game series? a 20/20 guy like dwight howard, or the best big man in the game, timmy d

on a side note, he did average a career playoff high in rebounding in the laker series. guy can still step his game up

[Denali]

Looks to me like 04-05 was a small drop off: he turned 29 that year.
He turned 32 this year.


Its worth nothing that that was the season where he was hampered by planter fasciatis in his foot all year long. even despite that the spurs took the mavs to the brink in the WCF, if it hadnt been for Duncan's injury, the Spurs very well could have made the finals and won, and history might look a lot different

[luigi>mario]

Its worth nothing that that was the season where he was hampered by planter fasciatis in his foot all year long. even despite that the spurs took the mavs to the brink in the WCF, if it hadnt been for Duncan's injury, the Spurs very well could have made the finals and won, and history might look a lot different

Good point. I totally forgot about the fasciatis.

[Lebron23]

It ends in 2010, when some young team in the Western Conference finally take the Spurs spot in the playoffs, and i don't think the fans will vote a player that is less effective in the first half of the regular season unless he is playing on a winning team.

[L.Kizzle]

With the West forwards now being himself, Melo, Dirk, Boozer, Jefferson, he'll continue to get voted in.

[luigi>mario]

With the West forwards now being himself, Melo, Dirk, Boozer, Jefferson, he'll continue to get voted in.
Don't forget Stoudemire.

Others (not saying they are threats, just possible one day threats) Gay, West, Odom, Artest. But you're right, the competition isn't overcoming him as soon as I had hoped. I respect the man, just tired of him killing my team.

[Myth]

Don't forget Stoudemire.

Others (not saying they are threats, just possible one day threats) Gay, West, Odom, Artest. But you're right, the competition isn't overcoming him as soon as I had hoped. I respect the man, just tired of him killing my team.

And Aldridge if Oden and Roy don't completely take away his spotlight (which they most likely will).

[e20dyl4n]

expect tim duncan to age like kareem did not like shaq. good news for spurs fans

[72-10]

With Duncan's style of play, I feel that he will be sticking around for a while. He won't be an All-Star starter for much longer, but he will make the reserves for a while and get some burn in those games. I'd like to see him break the All-Star career rebounding record.

[brandonislegend]

hes good for a while, plus hes adding onto his game with 3pters

[72-10]

hes good for a while, plus hes adding onto his game with 3pters

I hope that was a joke, do you actually watch basketball?

[brandonislegend]

of course it is ******* did you not watch the suns series...

some people still dont understand sarcasm -_-

[luigi>mario]

hes good for a while, plus hes adding onto his game with 3pters
:oldlol: , that was an insane shot.:applause:

I remeber watching Stockton/Malone age. They had a lot of good years and slowly trailered off. But even without it showing too much, that half step kept them out of the good half of the playoffs. The Spurs might be approaching that era soon, but maybe not too soon.

[72-10]

Stockton and Malone trained better than just about any athlete in the history of sport, just to keep in shape. I doubt that Duncan has the same work ethic.

[Junny]

Another 2 or 3 seasons, then he'll start dropping off. He doesn't have to rely on athleticism, so I think he'll last longer than how long the average player lasts.

[Collie]

I think he's done with the dominant regular season numbers. 18-10 should be the norm from now on.

The playoffs are a different matter entirely.

[Kobe_6/8]

At this rate he might be an all-star in his 40's.