Zach Edey update: 8 positive +/- games in a row, league-leading ORB%, positive on/off

Zach has turned things around after a rough start to the season. Over the last nine games, he has averaged:

[INDENT]- 22.5 minutes per game
- 13.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 0.9 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.2 bpg
- 64.4% FG, 67.8% eFG, 83.3% 3PT (0.7 3pa/g), 82.6% FT (2.6 fta/g), and 71.0% TS.
- 18.0 ORB%, 2.2 STL%, 5.2 BLK%[/INDENT]

He has grown more comfortable with each passing game, adjusting to the pace, style, and officiating of the pro game. The most surprising thing about his play in my opinion isn't the three-point shooting but the steals on defense. He has a knack for getting his long arms in the passing lanes.

The last eight games have all been positive +/- performances. He now has both a positive on-court rating and on/off rating.

[INDENT][B]Basketball Reference:[/B]

- 267 minutes played
- +6.8 on-court
- +0.7 on/off[/INDENT]

[INDENT][B]Cleaning the Glass:[/B]

- 249 minutes played
- +9.2 on-court
- +2.3 on/off[/INDENT]

I believe CTG excludes garbage time minutes.

When you dig into the numbers, it's clear that Zach's biggest strength is offensive rebounding.

He's leading the entire NBA in ORB% (16.4) and, according to CTG, Memphis has a 100th percentile +39.2 ORB% when Edey's on the court. That team ORB% drops by 9.2 when he's on the bench, which equates to a 99th percentile +9.2 ORB% on/off.

His other offensive strengths include a strong combination of scoring volume and efficiency (roughly 20 points per 75 and 68.3% selfORB adjusted TS/10% selfORB adjusted rTS) and space creation via screening and sealing off the paint.

His biggest offensive limitation right now is the turnovers. Memphis has struggled to leverage Edey's post-up game, accumulating too many lost balls and bad passes. Zach has to be better at reading the help defense and putting the ball on the floor.

Clean up the turnovers, improve non-restricted area 2pt % and he becomes a serious offensive weapon.

Defense has gotten steadily better. His pure rim protection needs to improve but his overall shot contesting has been good. Solid defensive rebounding and a top steal rate for a center have strengthened his on-court defensive rating. Memphis has a 111.0 DRtg/-2.1 rDRtg (Basketball Reference) / 109.5 DRtg/-4.3 rDRtg (Cleaning the Glass) with Edey on the court.

It's early days but lots to like.

Rooting for Edey to win ROTY

Last 3 ROTY centers weren’t “TRUE BIG MEN”, who physically were the largest player on the court, in both height/length, and/or strength/weight, and who played a style in which physical dominance in the paint on both ends, was the crux of their on-court value:

Wemby - plays like a skinny, weak, slow shooting guard with an 8-foot wingspan.
Towns - plays like a huge lazy/slow, soft small-forward.
Okafor - offensive end lacking, undersized center.

Edey would be the first “True big man” to win ROTY since:

Shaq
Robinson
Ewing

As far as ROTY goes, I think currently Jared McCain is the clear favorite. Edey and the rest are way behind.

First game back from injury:

- 24 minutes played
- 13 points, 10 rebounds (8 offensive), 1 assist, 1 steal, 1 block, 0 turnovers
- 6/8 FG, 1-1 FT
- +12

Probably going to win ROY now that McCain went down.

Would be huge for bball if he wins roy. Doubt it. Man he works hard. A senior in college, true big in nba. Old skool thru and thru.

I hope he can get a start role on a good team. Do it like they did with old Shaq, let him start and set tone, maybe get fouls.

-Smak

11/7 gets you ROTY this year?

Gotta be the worst draft of all time.

He's already almost doing prime Boban-style numbers on a per-minute/per-possession basis, but he's already playing like 2x as many minutes per game as Boban would.

Update:

Maybe his second-best game tonight. 21 points, 16 rebounds (9 offensive), 2 assists, and 2 blocks. 9-15 FG, 1-5 3PT, 2-5 FT. All in 27 minutes and a team-high +29.

That's now 14 positive +/- games in a row. Memphis has gone 9-5 in those games, so they haven't won them all. Memphis is +215 over these 14 games, including +160 during Edey's 329 minutes and just +55 in 344 minutes without him. He's been a +/- outlier even in the games they've lost.

[QUOTE=ralph_i_el;14963764]He's already almost doing prime Boban-style numbers on a per-minute/per-possession basis, but he's already playing like 2x as many minutes per game as Boban would.[/QUOTE]

Pretty much. He gives you about 20-25 minutes a game of Boban-esque scoring, Steven Adams-esque offensive rebounding, and positive defense.

The best part is there's so much room for improvement. His post-up game has been rough. But he's so big he's just a monster in the dunker's spot finishing plays and crashing the offensive boards.

Some more stuff:

[B]Cleaning the Glass (excludes garbage time minutes)[/B]

- +14.3 on-court net rating (97th percentile)
- +5.1 on-off net rating (75th percentile)

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING

- 39.6% on-court ORB% (100th percentile)
- +10.0% on-off ORB% (99th percentile)

DEFENSE

- 104.3 on-court DRtg (96th percentile)
- -4.9 on-off DRtg (79th percentile)

Another great game tonight. 14 points, 9 rebounds (3 offensive), 2 assists, 1 steal, and 2 blocks on 5-6 FG, 0-1 3PT, 4-5 FT. Only one turnover, 27 minutes played, and +5.

Wasn't going to update but Edey has tied Marc Gasol and Tayshaun Prince for a Memphis record: 15 straight positive +/- games in a row.

[url]https://stathead.com/tiny/6IxLA[/url]

Pretty incredible stuff considering Memphis is 10-5 W/L over those games. For comparison, Gasol and Prince's 15-game streak was during a 14-1 W/L period.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CskBem7MblE[/url]

Had to scroll for an Edey thread. Getm.

-Smak