My definitive clutch discussion of Bran, Kobe, Curry, Jordan, etc

1996-97: Jordan, Pippen
1997-98: Jordan, Pippen, Stockton, Malone
1998-99: Duncan, Robinson
1999-2000: Bryant, Shaq
2000-2001: Bryant, Shaq, and Iverson
2001-2002: Bryant, Shaq, Kidd
2002-2003: Robinson, Duncan, Kidd
2003-2004: Bryant, Shaq
2004-2005: Duncan
2005-2006: Wade, Nowitzki
2006-2007: Lebron, Duncan
2007-2008: Bryant, Gasol, Garnett
2008-2009: Bryant, Gasol, Howard
2009-2010: Bryant, Gasol, Garnett
2010-2011: Dirk, Lebron, Wade
2011-2012: Russ, Durant, Lebron, Wade
2012-2013: Duncan, Lebron, Wade
2013-2014: Duncan, Lebron, Wade
2014-2015: Curry, Lebron

*If I didn’t include someone on this list it is because they didn’t have anything that great (under 15% PIE AND not someone people generally include in top 20 of all time discussion, such as the Glove).
**I only included players that made it to the finals that year.
***This is for the entire playoffs from that year (meaning, not just finals).

The filters are:
5 point differential or less
Last 5 minutes of the game or OT

(Player Impact Estimate) - Shows what % of a game’s (clutch part of the game’s as described above) events did that player impact:

1. Dirk Nowitzki (10-11): 51.3%
2. Michael Jordan (96-97): 41.2%
3. Dwyane Wade (05-06): 40.4%
4. Lebron James (06-07): 39.5%
5. Kobe Bryant (07-08): 35.5%
6. Lebron James (11-12): 32.2%
7. Kobe Bryant (00-01): 31.4%
8. Allen Iverson (00-01): 31.0%
9. Tim Duncan (06-07): 30.6%
10. Shaquille O’neal (99-00): 30.2%

Kobe Bryant (99-00): 29.9%
Kevin Durant (11-12): 29.0%
Kobe Bryant (09-10): 28.3%
Michael Jordan (97-98): 27.8%
Lebron James (12-13): 27.3
Stephen Curry (14-15): 26.9%
Pau Gasol (08-09): 26.2%
Shaquille O’neal (00-01): 25.8%
Shaquille O’neal (01-02): 25.5%
Pau Gasol (09-10): 25.2%
Dirk Nowiztki (05-06): 24.3%
Tim Duncan (13-14): 23.6%
Lebron James (13-14): 22.2%
Karl Malone (97-98): 20.8%
Kobe Bryant (08-09): 19.7%
Tim Duncan (02-03): 19.7%
Dwyane Wade (11-12): 19.5%
Lebron James (10-11): 19.2%
Jason Kidd (01-02): 18.6%
David Robinson (98-99): 18.5%
Pau Gasol (07-08): 17.7%
David Robinson (02-03): 17%
Tim Duncan (98-99): 16.7%
Jason Kidd (02-03): 16.3%
Scottie Pippen (96-97): 17.1%
Dwyane Wade (10-11): 17.1%
Kobe Bryant (01-02): 17.0%
Lebron James (14-15): 16.5%
Dwyane Wade (13-14): 15.1%
Tim Duncan: (04-05): 14.4%
Dwight Howard (08-09): 14.4%
John Stockton (97-98): 14.0%
Tim Duncan (12-13): 12.9%
Kevin Garnett (07-08): 10.2%
Shaquille O’neal (03-04): 7.2%
Kobe Bryant (03-04): 6.8%
Scottie Pippen (97-98): 6.1%
Dwyane Wade (12-13): 3.7%
Kevin Garnett (09-10): 0.8%
Russell Westbrook (11-12): -1.3%

Net Rating (in the clutch as defined above) is Offensive Rating – Defensive Rating:

1. Dirk Nowitzki (10-11): +71.8
2. David Robinson (98-99): +62.5
3. Tim Duncan (98-99): +54.3
4. Shaquille O’neal (01-02): +50.3
5. Lebron James (13-14): +49.8
6. Kobe Bryant (01-02): +44.4
7. Scottie Pippen (96-97): +40.5
8. Michael Jordan (96-97): +39.7
9. Tim Duncan (13-14): +39.4
10. Lebron James (06-07): +37.3

Tim Duncan (06-07): +36.8
David Robinson (02-03): +35.0
Kobe Bryant (08-09): +32.2
Pau Gasol (08-09): +32.2
Kobe Bryant (99-00): +29.5
Shaquille O’neal (99-00): +29.2
Stephen Curry (14-15): +29.1
Dwyane Wade (13-14): +28.5
Dwyane Wade (05-06): +27.6
Kobe Bryant (00-01): +20.9
Allen Iverson (00-01): +20.7
Kobe Bryant (07-08): +20.3
Lebron James (11-12): +20.2
Dwyane Wade (10-11): +19.2
Lebron James (10-11): +19.2
Tim Duncan (04-05): +18.9
Pau Gasol (07-08): +18.4
Kobe Bryant (09-10): +17.3
Pau Gasol (09-10): +17.3
Scottie Pippen (97-98): +16.3
Michael Jordan (97-98): +16.1
Dwyane Wade (11-12): +13.1
Kevin Durant (11-12): +11.2
Russell Westbrook (11-12): +11.2
Shaquille O’neal (03-04): +10.8
Tim Duncan (02-03): +5.0
Kobe Bryant (03-04): 2.8
Lebron James (14-15): +1.8
Jason Kidd (02-03): +0.0
Shaquille O’neal (00-01): -0.7
Karl Malone (97-98): -0.8
Dirk Nowiztki (05-06): -1.0
John Stockton (97-98): -1.8
Lebron James (12-13): -6.7
Tim Duncan (12-13): -8.0
Kevin Garnett (07-08): -10.2
Dwyane Wade (12-13): -10.4
Jason Kidd (01-02): -10.9
Dwight Howard (08-09): -17.9
Kevin Garnett (09-10): -24.2


This data really shows just how special Dirk’s 2011 run was.

Kobe was the only player with two top 10 finishes for PIE (player’s impact on game events in the clutch). The caveat being that only two of Jordan’s playoff runs are included so he would of most likely changed up the rankings a bit had the data been available for the other four prior years.

Lebron and Duncan both had two top 10 finishes for Net Rating (offensive rating – defensive rating in the clutch) – again Jordan caveat as stated above.

The Admiral had a surprisingly large impact during that championship run in the clutch.

well, lebron ranks dead last, so your method works :cheers:

Why did you pick '97 out of all the Bulls championship years?

[QUOTE=SouBeachTalents]Why did you pick '97 out of all the Bulls championship years?[/QUOTE]

That is the furthest the NBA stats program goes back to. I wanted to pick his 92-93 season.

Source?

[QUOTE=sundizz]That is the furthest the NBA stats program goes back to. I wanted to pick his 92-93 season.[/QUOTE]

Gotchya. You mind adding others, would definitely like to see Shaq's '00, Duncan's '03, and LeBron's '12 or '13

Source: [URL="http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/"]http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/[/URL]
*You'll have to learn how to play with a little bit (click the widget looking thing to filter)

And sure, I can add more. I'm using this as my break for studying so I'll update the OP with more. I'll likely end up just going through it year by year actually (from 96 to 15).

the stats are incomplete because you don't account for volume

Kobe IIRC has taken more clutch shots than any other player in history, and he does have the most made game-winners in league history.

You should be able to use logic to help determine the most clutch players. Jordan, Kobe, Wade, Dirk and Shaq had that killer instinct when it came to winning time. They always seemed to be money when it was needed the most and they had some unbeliveable stretches in 4th quarters.

Plus, with the exception of Shaq, you should also consider their skillsets. Kobe, Dirk and Jordan are the 3 of the GOAT shooters from mid-range and in the post, Lebron's offensive arsenal pales in comparison. While Lebron in his prime was able to get to the rim a lot in late situations and use his body to get easy shots/go to the line, he's always seemed to miss his jump shots, like we saw in the 2015 Finals. You know he can't be that clutch when most of the fans expect him to miss that long range jumper in the 4th.

Or maybe, clutch is just a myth and all of their results were random luck.

wow, this thread is gonna be marked. for all the dirk haters.

man.....


Dirk....:bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :applause: :applause: :applause:

[QUOTE=ImKobe]the stats are incomplete because you don't account for volume

Kobe IIRC has taken more clutch shots than any other player in history, and he does have the most made game-winners in league history.

You should be able to use logic to help determine the most clutch players. Jordan, Kobe, Wade, Dirk and Shaq had that killer instinct when it came to winning time. They always seemed to be money when it was needed the most and they had some unbeliveable stretches in 4th quarters.

Plus, with the exception of Shaq, you should also consider their skillsets. Kobe, Dirk and Jordan are the 3 of the GOAT shooters from mid-range and in the post, Lebron's offensive arsenal pales in comparison. While Lebron in his prime was able to get to the rim a lot in late situations and use his body to get easy shots/go to the line, he's always seemed to miss his jump shots, like we saw in the 2015 Finals. You know he can't be that clutch when most of the fans expect him to miss that long range jumper in the 4th.

[B]Or maybe, clutch is just a myth and all of their results were random luck.[/B][/QUOTE]

I think there are some instances of clutch/unclutch play that are random luck, but eventually over a players career a pattern will form. There's no way you could consider the careers of Peyton, A-Rod and Romo as "random luck" after so many seasons of similar results in clutch games & situations

Thank you, OP, for finally dispelling the myth that Duncan wasn't the best player in the '07 and '14 play offs.

:applause:

Excellent post, thanks for taking the time to crunch the numbers.

The case of LeBron being clutch can officially be put to bed; the evidence is irrefutable.

Dirk is the most clutch player since Michael Jordan. Fact.

[url]http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/5/11/8584749/lebron-james-michael-jordan-game-winning-shots[/url]
End thread, another shit post by another shit user.
Im only here to enlighten people but you guys just dont understand basketball.

[QUOTE=LeFraud James]Excellent post, thanks for taking the time to crunch the numbers.

The case of LeBron being clutch can officially be put to bed; the evidence is irrefutable.[/QUOTE]
[url]http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/5/11/8584749/lebron-james-michael-jordan-game-winning-shots[/url]
You have autism

[QUOTE=nzahir][url]http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/5/11/8584749/lebron-james-michael-jordan-game-winning-shots[/url]
End thread, another shit post by another shit user.
Im only here to enlighten people but you guys just dont understand basketball.[/QUOTE]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

I know you're probably too dense to understand the point I'm trying to make though, since you're using an article as a means of attempting to disprove actual stats.

[QUOTE=LeFraud James]Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

I know you're probably too dense to understand the point I'm trying to make though, since you're using an article as a means of attempting to disprove actual stats.[/QUOTE]
Too bad the article has ACTUAL stats in it

GAWDBE LEAVING A MARK WHERE IT MATTERED THE MOST.

:bowdown: :bowdown:

and DIRKULEZ RUNS THIS TOWN!

:bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown:

five minutes left to the game, 300 seconds,
divided by 24, and you have about 12.5 possessions
with time outs, not counting fouls, we leave it to around the average of 18

now, I'll be coming at you with a full agenda right at this clutch stat

would you say that your ranking also shows that players perhaps had the least amount of movement prior to the last five minutes of the game.

since Shaq and Allen Iverson were included, and Dirk as your number 1
I would be hard pressed not to include height/weight in this say calculation

How about you do playoffs entirely? shocking reveal: MJ, Dirk, Bron have been the most consistently clutch in the final 5 minutes, 2 minutes, last second shots.... it doesn't matter what, Kobetards yap about the criteria being the wrong one.

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater]How about you do playoffs entirely? shocking reveal: MJ, Dirk, Bron have been the most consistently clutch in the final 5 minutes, 2 minutes, last second shots.... it doesn't matter what, Kobetards yap about the criteria being the wrong one.[/QUOTE]

What are you talking bout you clown?

This was for the entire playoffs, and uses the common sense clutch time frame of 5 minutes left in the game when the game is within 5.

did you use data for one season per player or something?

So you basically chose small sample size, out of an already small sample size, to try to fit your agenda?

How about using data for their whole career, regular and postseason ?

[QUOTE=ISHGoat]did you use data for one season per player or something?

So you basically chose small sample size, out of an already small sample size, to try to fit your agenda?

How about using data for their whole career, regular and postseason ?[/QUOTE]

They are all great players.

I did it for all postseasons where they got to the finals. How much more data is there than that?

For Bron this was 6 postseasons of data, Kobe had 7 postseasons of data, Shaq had 6...etc.

It is quite broad I'd say. What agenda would you like to promote? I didnt even put anything agenda driven in the information. It is all facts. The only definitive, non questionable conclusion is that Dirk was an all time great clutch performer in 2011. Everything else can be interpreted multiple ways.

Dirk, MJ and Kobe :applause:

It's funny that even before looking at this thread, I figured them to be clutch beasts. MJ especially obv.

Huge LOL @ '15 LeBron turning out dead last in these categories. Why am I not surprised? :oldlol:

[QUOTE=sundizz]They are all great players.

I did it for all postseasons where they got to the finals. How much more data is there than that?

For Bron this was 6 postseasons of data, Kobe had 7 postseasons of data, Shaq had 6...etc.

It is quite broad I'd say. What agenda would you like to promote? I didnt even put anything agenda driven in the information. It is all facts. The only definitive, non questionable conclusion is that Dirk was an all time great clutch performer in 2011. Everything else can be interpreted multiple ways.[/QUOTE]

Nah good stuff. Its great that you pulled up these stats, because people get too carried away with walk off shots, not realizing THESE stats include not only walk off shots, but other waning moments in the 4th which MUST be accounted for.

What's Clark Kent without a telephone booth basically.. :applause:

[QUOTE=sundizz]They are all great players.

I did it for all postseasons where they got to the finals. How much more data is there than that?

For Bron this was 6 postseasons of data, Kobe had 7 postseasons of data, Shaq had 6...etc.

It is quite broad I'd say. What agenda would you like to promote? I didnt even put anything agenda driven in the information. It is all facts. The only definitive, non questionable conclusion is that Dirk was an all time great clutch performer in 2011. Everything else can be interpreted multiple ways.[/QUOTE]

in the OP you said

[QUOTE] The players that I took a look at were:

2014-2015: Curry and Bran
2010-2011: Dirk
2009-2010: Bryant
2005-2006: Wade
2000-2001: Bryant, Shaq, and Iverson
1996-97: Jordan and Pippen[/QUOTE]

So I thought you meant the stats were for 14-15 for bran, 10-11 for dirk, etc which is using 1 season per player. Did you mean you would use data[B] UP TO [/B]'10 for kobe, '06 for wade, '97 for jordan, as to only keep the data relevant to their primes?

If so, then I think it would make your data more meaningful if you also took away their pre-prime years, aka kobe benchwarmer years, mj 1-9 years, etc. But then the discussion digresses to "which years count as this player's prime?"

[QUOTE=kuniva_dAMiGhTy]Nah good stuff. Its great that you pulled up these stats, because people get too carried away with walk off shots, not realizing THESE stats include not only walk off shots, but other waning moments in the 4th which MUST be accounted for.

What's Clark Kent without a telephone booth basically.. :applause:[/QUOTE]

agreed, going down the wire all these things are essential...

[IMG]http://i.gyazo.com/977fb008956aa2ceec463b9199917d7e.png[/IMG]

LeBron James is 43/96 45% (great)

[IMG]http://i.gyazo.com/7b8fdd70fe33284e5b2ff46bb6c43e0a.png[/IMG]

Kobe Bryant is 30/88 34% (well below league average)

t's funny that even before checking those stats, I figured LeBron to be a clutch beast. Last second shots, 5 minutes, whole quarter, doesn't matter...
Huge LOL @ 'Kobe Bean... HE THRIVES IN THE CLUTCH DOE' turning out dead last in these categories. Why am I not surprised?

^Wait, shots to tie or take the lead? What would be the point of a 5 margin under that criteria?

Correct your lists, and maybe I'll take you seriously. Godspeed young foreigner. :cheers:

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater]agreed, going down the wire all these things are essential...

[IMG]http://i.gyazo.com/977fb008956aa2ceec463b9199917d7e.png[/IMG]

LeBron James is 43/96 45% (great)

[IMG]http://i.gyazo.com/7b8fdd70fe33284e5b2ff46bb6c43e0a.png[/IMG]

Kobe Bryant is 30/88 34% (well below league average)

t's funny that even before checking those stats, I figured LeBron to be a clutch beast. Last second shots, 5 minutes, whole quarter, doesn't matter...
Huge LOL @ 'Kobe Bean... HE THRIVES IN THE CLUTCH DOE' turning out dead last in these categories. Why am I not surprised?[/QUOTE]


[I]I love the east hehe[/I] - Chris Bosh in 2013

And don't forget the shameless statspadding.

[QUOTE=kuniva_dAMiGhTy]^Wait, shots to tie or take the lead? What would be the point of a 5 margin under that criteria?

Correct your lists, and maybe I'll take you seriously. Godspeed young foreigner. :cheers:[/QUOTE]

be honest, I got you :oldlol: :cheers: per usual

[IMG]http://i.gyazo.com/caaca88879a84c9e611507886ca8bdea.png[/IMG]

LeBron James is 108 of 253 43% (above league average)

[IMG]http://i.gyazo.com/0a1ac62b0294836836c34a703b02541f.png[/IMG]

Kobe Bryant is 88 of 238 37% (way below league average)

you just applauded someone clutch for no reason, padawan.

Why am I not surprised at you being this off?

don't make me do this to you again, native.

Arbitrary Water is right - Lebron James in general has been a pretty good clutch performer. I agree with that. That is why it annoys me that people think this last season of his was somehow "great or amazing". It sucked. He was quite awful I thought by the eye test (and the numbers also show it).

If you look at Bron in comparison to Kobe and Wade (his only true competition in this era/data available) he has done far better when the conditions are:

5 minutes left or less
4th quarter or OT
shot to tie or take the lead

However, that is why I posted those advanced stats. They take into account all game events (not just shots). Being clutch is way different than simply making shots. For example, I was watching a Kobe vs. Durant video the other day of the 2010 G6 closing game. Kobe was the one that got a huge huge defensive rebound in traffic to give them the chance to win the game and close out the series.

These stats aren't the end all be all. There is stuff like "confidence" that is a real thing. Anyone that plays ball knows. It is hard to say, without being on the floor with these players, which one makes you confident in the ability to win a basketball game.

Out of all bball games I've seen in the playoffs, to this day, Bron's 48 point explosion was the greatest thing I've seen. However, from continued watching I always felt the pure confidence Kobe had inspired teammates a little bit better than the way Bron acts. I truly believe that is what made Pau great - he had all the tools, but was too much in his head (like most smart people). Kobe gave him that I don't give an eff attitude to become a champ. He did the same with scrubs like Kwame Brown, Jordan Farmar, Smush Parker, Lamar Odom, etc.

[quote=ArbitraryWater]LeBron clutch gawd blah blah[/quote]

If you had basic comprehension skills, you would have used OP's criteria to begin with, and not "shots to take the lead" or mere FG's to gauge impact.

What I "applauded" were Kobe, Dirk and MJ's percentages of impact estimated. What I laughed at were LeBron's figures in 2015...again not FG's made or attempted, or his stats from 2004-2014.

Do I need to put you in timeout again, Arby?

Being clutch actually is ALOT about making shots... whatever isolated events you're talking about (a rebound? really?) it doesn't bridge the gap of the facual events, I want you to admit that... hell, its not just about making shots? In 2013 LeBron averaged a damn triple double per 48 minutes in the clutch...

[QUOTE=kuniva_dAMiGhTy]If you had basic comprehension skills, you would have used OP's criteria to begin with, and not "shots to take the lead" or mere FG's to gauge impact.

What I applauded were Kobe, Dirk and MJ's percentages of impact estimated...again not FG's made or attempted.

Do I need to put you in timeout again, Arby?[/QUOTE]

I honestly thought you'd have enough pride to accept that L... this isn't about OP's criteria, this is about the criteria that makes sense... the traditional ones I posted. How do you dig his criteria, at the same time dislike stuff like win-shares or not because it does the same things (account for team performance), then ask me to do just what you wanted, and really respond with this.... for an adult this is quite immature.

Hey, I didn't invent those stats, you're trying to shoot the messenger.

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater]I honestly thought you'd have enough pride to accept that L... this isn't about OP's criteria, this is about the criteria that makes sense... the traditional ones I posted. How do you dig his criteria, at the same time dislike stuff like win-shares or not because it does the same things (account for team performance), then ask me to do just what you wanted, and really respond with this.... for an adult this is quite immature.

Hey, I didn't invent those stats, you're trying to shoot the messenger.[/QUOTE]

But I had to correct you, and make you post another chart.

There's no second chances in this. You had your shot...and came up short. Sort of like LeBron's 2/6 campaign. :oldlol:

No matter the amount of factual and appropriate data, I can't change your beliefs :cheers: You have your mind set on this and won't back off of that thought. Maybe next time.

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater]I honestly thought you'd have enough pride to accept that L[/QUOTE]

I think we had all hoped for this.

But Lebron stans only took a week off and then started to waste another summer.

Sad really.

I'm glad that you admitted you used your own criteria...after seeing OP expose LeBron's horrid 2015 season.

It was a good effort, Martin. Really it was. :cheers:

How many times are you gonna try to end this convo? You ain't folling no one with this 'calm and collected doe' attitude.. I have you on such a string that you spent so much thought into your post that you posted this

[url]http://i.gyazo.com/25caacdbff507e3f14a75ab2fefa4572.png[/url]

put the Martin in there, and then backtrack 2 minutes afterwards and edit it for a 2nd time :oldlol:

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater]How many times are you gonna try to end this convo? You ain't folling no one with this 'calm and collected doe' attitude.. I have you on such a string that you spent so much thought into your post that you posted this

[url]http://i.gyazo.com/25caacdbff507e3f14a75ab2fefa4572.png[/url]

put the Martin in there, and then backtrack 2 minutes afterwards and edit it for a 2nd time :oldlol:[/QUOTE]

Aww martin took a screen cap of my double post. Hang it up on your wall somewhere. You deserved it.

BTW, impact estimated =/= field goals made and attempted

I hope that you can discern the difference in the future :cheers: