Dunking Data For 1988-1993: MJ is the Goat In-Game Dunker for Wing Players

What I see here is Lebron getting spacing from 3-point shooters Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen so he gets a wide open dunk... and there is no big man waiting to shot-block because of defensive 3 seconds and floor-spacing.

And of course, this is about the furthest thing from chest-to-chest as you can get.

[IMG]http://i.minus.com/ib1aU0A8thSath.gif[/IMG]


Otoh, a stark contrast to virtually everything just said above.. Do you see any 3-point-shooting floor spreaders??... so no spacing, to go along with no defensive 3 seconds.... and WITH a shot-blocking big waiting at the rim.

[IMG]http://gifsforum.com/images_new/gif/other/grand/ed34bb98401bb69ad56a198f948f25b5.gif[/IMG]

Also, the scrambling schemes used today to cover the extra ground are only necessary to COMPENSATE for the fact that defenders can't go in the paint anymore.

Like, in order to MAKE UP for the fact that defenders have to cover more ground due to 3-point shooting and can't go in the paint anymore, today's defenses need scrambling schemes that they didn't previously need.

Does that make today's defenses more effective at contesting shots?... Absolutely not... it just makes them capable of covering the extra ground and defending without going in the paint for more than 3 seconds...

But back when they didn't have to cover that extra ground and were allowed to stay in the paint indefinitely, they didn't need the scrambling schemes, and contested shots a lot better.

The NBA gave offenses some advantages (defensive 3 seconds, no hand-checking, and the 3-point shot which began to be used), so the defense naturally has to compensate... but without the NBA granting offenses those advantages, the defense doesn't need to compensate.
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[QUOTE=DatAsh]Ehh, it's just different. Teams now put far more emphasis on defending the 3 and less on protecting the rim.[/QUOTE]

Yet as the OP showed, guys are getting more dunks now and we know it's easier for guys to get into the paint and have less contested shots AND teams are shooting 22 3s per game. A guy like Curry is getting 8 attempts per game, Harden 7, even a big like Love is getting 6ish per game.

In fact, the highest league wide eFG% in league History happened this past season, the second highest was last season. Actually, the only none mid 2000s+ teams in the top 10 are the 2 seasons in the mid 90s where the 3 pt line was shortened and I think '83-'84.

[QUOTE]Someone like Wade would probably find it harder to score back then, but good three point shooters like Durant/Curry would feast on the 3-defense of the 80s/90s.[/QUOTE]

Funny, I think it's the opposite :lol

Wade has the skills and athleticism to get to the basket (which is why when healthy he was the best among his peers against top tier defenses) and he has a mid range game. Doesn't rely on the 3 (neither did Jordan and neither does Tony Parker, how many finals appearances and championships do they have between them?). I think a guy like Curry or Harden is a product of his era. Harden would not be waltzing into the lane to draw fouls in bulk like he does now. And if you watch tape of perimeter defense in the lates 80s-90s, you'll notice that many time hand checking forced players to back down starting at the half court line. It's much easier now for a guy like Curry to just dribble up untouched and launch as many shots as his heart desires.

Back in the day, in order to get a guy like Reggie Miller an open shot you'd have to run multiple screens for him. Now guys have all the space in the world to operate, hence why they're chucking 3s like it's going out of business.

In today's game, the offense has the advantage (spacing, defensive 3 seconds, no hand-checking) and the defense has to compensate (scrambling schemes that weren't previously necessary).

In previous eras, the defense had the advantage (no spacing, no defensive 3 seconds, hand-checking), so the offense had to compensate (positions other than PG were good at creating their own shot).

With the defense having the advantage in previous eras via the ability to hand-check, coupled with no spacing and no defensive 3 seconds, it shouldn't be surprising that dunks were a lot harder to come by.
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[QUOTE=3ball]in today's game, the offense has the advantage (spacing, defensive 3 seconds, no hand-checking) and the defense has to compensate (scrambling schemes that weren't previously necessary).

in previous eras, the defense had the advantage (no spacing, no defensive 3 seconds, hand-checking), so the offense had to compensate (positions other than PG were good at creating their own shot... different types of players were developed that had individual-unique offensive ability to mitigate a paint-camping defense - magic, kareem, mcadoo, gervin, dantley, english, bird - guys with individually unique offensive ability).
.[/QUOTE]

Even back then, they were using many schemes/methods that were technically illegal as documented ere:

[url]http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=345176[/url]

Even with the gif of the Jordan dunk on the Heat/Seikaly, here's the entire play from the inbounds (awful quality :oldlol: ):

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CE2hU-OaIo[/url]

How does the commentator characterize the defensive scheme the Heat are employing?

[QUOTE=fpliii]I want to be very precise and confident in our analysis.

As I've said plenty of times, I can't stand LeBron, and prefer watching MJ. I also think MJ is the superior dunker. But I want to be very confident that we're correct, not leaving room for error.

We very likely may reach the same conclusion, but there's no downside to doing extensive, detailed analysis (except the time spent of course, but time spent watching ball is time well spent IMO).[/QUOTE]
What was the point in getting the numbers if once we get them, you are going to say they don't mean anything?

Are you seriously saying that the numbers aren't good because the dunk wasn't prevalent until Jordan started doing it?

How do you explain why dunking all of a sudden got harder again in 2000?.. did players get unathletic again or did the dunk become unpopular again?

[QUOTE=DonDadda59]Even back then, they were using many schemes/methods that were technically illegal as documented ere:

[url]http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=345176[/url]

Even with the gif of the Jordan dunk on the Heat/Seikaly, here's the entire play from the inbounds (awful quality :oldlol: ):

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CE2hU-OaIo[/url]

How does the commentator characterize the defensive scheme the Heat are employing?[/QUOTE]
Awesome finds... just case in point after case in point..

"Bulls are in a 2-2-1 zone defense here..." Not that playing a zone is an advantage... but regardless, they did that back then too anyway.
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[QUOTE=DonDadda59]

Funny, I think it's the opposite :lol

Wade has the skills and athleticism to get to the basket (which is why when healthy he was the best among his peers against top tier defenses) and he has a mid range game. Doesn't rely on the 3 (neither did Jordan and neither does Tony Parker, how many finals appearances and championships do they have between them?). I think a guy like Curry or Harden is a product of his era. Harden would not be waltzing into the lane to draw fouls in bulk like he does now. And if you watch tape of perimeter defense in the lates 80s-90s, you'll notice that many time hand checking forced players to back down starting at the half court line. It's much easier now for a guy like Curry to just dribble up untouched and launch as many shots as his heart desires.

Back in the day, in order to get a guy like Reggie Miller an open shot you'd have to run multiple screens for him. Now guys have all the space in the world to operate, hence why they're chucking 3s like it's going out of business.[/QUOTE]

If slashing to them was harder then than it is now, then players who score a lot by slashing to the rim would struggle more in the 90s than they would now.

If teams today defend the 3 better than they did back then, then players who score a lot of points off 3s will struggle more today that they would back in the 90s.

That's all I really meant.

[QUOTE=3ball]What was the point in getting the numbers if once we get them, you are going to say they don't mean anything?

Are you seriously saying that the numbers aren't good because the dunk wasn't prevalent until Jordan started doing it?

How do you explain why dunking all of a sudden got harder again in 2000?.. did players get unathletic again or did the dunk become unpopular again?[/QUOTE]
They do mean something, they tell us a good deal.

The numbers tell us *what* happened, but not *why*. It's up to us to do detailed analysis to explain the numbers.

The prevalence of the dunk was one of the possibilities.

With regards to 2000, I'm not sure if it was noise in the data, something due to rules, or whatever else.

As I said though, I don't like dealing in hypotheticals. Now that we have the dunking data, we can use that as a starting point for our investigation.

[QUOTE=fpliii]They do mean something, they tell us a good deal.

The numbers tell us *what* happened, but not *why*. It's up to us to do detailed analysis to explain the numbers.

The prevalence of the dunk was one of the possibilities.

With regards to 2000, I'm not sure if it was noise in the data, something due to rules, or whatever else.

As I said though, I don't like dealing in hypotheticals. Now that we have the dunking data, we can use that as a starting point for our investigation.[/QUOTE]
So the options for why the FGA/Dunk stat declined are:

1) The dunk was not prevalent until 1992

2) Players became athletic in 1992

3) 1 and 2 above

[QUOTE=3ball]So the options for why the FGA/Dunk stat declined are:

1) The dunk was not prevalent until 1992

2) Players became athletic in 1992

3) 1 and 2 above[/QUOTE]
No, it's also possible it became easier to dunk. Those are just alternative hypotheses.

I think players simply seeking the dunk more now has something to do with it.

[QUOTE=DatAsh]If slashing to them was harder then than it is now, then players who score a lot by slashing to the rim would struggle more in the 90s than they would now.[/QUOTE]

Indeed. But Wade is similar to a 80s Jordan, just shorter and less athletic/skilled but still good enough to be impactful. He wouldn't be setting finals FT records like he did in '06 but he could be like a Drexler type, maybe less effective due to his lack of size.

[QUOTE][B]If teams today defend the 3 better than they did back then[/B], then players who score a lot of points off 3s will struggle more today that they would back in the 90s.[/QUOTE]

Do they though? Like I said, this past season teams were taking 22 3s per game (record) and had the highest league wide eFG% ever. Look at how much space a 6'3" Curry (24 PPG, taking 8 3s per game for 42.4%) was getting on his shots this past season:

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnEEClCcSp8[/url]

Paying special attention to his 3 shooting, notice how he can just dribble up and shoot basically any time he wants. Notice how much space he has to operate. Basically the only form of resistance the defense can muster is waving hello at him :lol

Then look at how Pippen played Magic in the '91 Finals. Forced him to basically back down like he was posting up from the half court line. That's what hand checking does to perimeter players, especially PGs.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eibq7MpTAvE[/url]

Can't just dribble up and launch whenever you feel like it with all the space you want. Watch game tape from the 80s-90s and watch for that, perimeter players dribbling with their backs to the basket at the 3 point line because of hand checking. Guys had to fight off screens to get open for 3s ala Reggie Miller (or catch the defense sleeping of course).

Physicality is not conducive to 3 point shooting. That's why since the '05 rule changes (even earlier handcheck curtailing rules too), 3 point attempts have steadily gone up through the seasons.

[QUOTE=fpliii]No, it's also possible it became easier to dunk. Those are just alternative hypotheses.[/QUOTE]
The increase in the FGA/Dunk stat up to previous levels didn't occur just in 2000, it went from 20.3 in 1998 to 24.2 in 1999, and then up to 26.2 in 2000.

Would that mean it is athleticism and/or prevalence of the dunk declined during this time?

[QUOTE=DonDadda59]
Do they though? Like I said, this past season teams were taking 22 3s per game (record) and had the highest league wide eFG% ever. Look at how much space a 6'3" Curry (24 PPG, taking 8 3s per game for 42.4%) was getting on his shots this past season:
[/QUOTE]

We also need to consider that on average, players are much better 3 point shooters than they were in the 80s and 90s.