Could James Harden lead a playoff caliber team as the lead player/scorer?

Still can't believe he wouldn't take OKC's deal.

Dis gon b good.


Harden has many doubters now after his performance in the finals. But I think he will shine in Houston. I see him averaging anywhere from 21 to 24 ppg. And best case is leading the Rockets to a playoff spot in the tough west.

[QUOTE=BuffaloBill]Dis gon b good.


Harden has many doubters now after his performance in the finals. But I think he will shine in Houston. I see him averaging anywhere from 21 to 24 ppg. And best case is leading the Rockets to a playoff spot in the tough west.[/QUOTE]
They're gonna need him to average around 24 PPG if they want a playoff spot.

Lin won't average more than 16 PPG. Same with Asik (15 and 12 type guy).

Toni Kukoc

[QUOTE=Jacks3]Yes. Look at his numbers with Durant/Westbrook on the bench. Still ridiculously good.[/QUOTE]
Harden and the bench mob last year without Durant or Westbrook were +14.6 pts per 100 possessions, better than the starting lineup of OKC which was something like 7.9

Starters obviously play against better talent but it's still a solid number for OKC's bench mob led by Harden

Where are all of Houston's shots gonna come from? Harden is more a playmaker not a shot taker like Kevin Martin. Add in Lin's turnovers and that is going to be one [B]offensively anemic team[/B].

Asik is a beast but he's only ~10 PPG.

By the way, Harden is one greedy mofo to leave a guaranteed championship contender for several years over 5 million out of 60 million dollars over 4 years.

This makes the Jeff Green deal look like a steal, since they are going to average similar numbers just at different positions this year. Harden doesn't deserve a max deal.[B] Only players who could be at least your second best player on a championship team ever deserve a max deal[/B]. That's my thinking.

Rockets 22 wins.

[QUOTE=Pushxx]Where are all of Houston's shots gonna come from? Harden is more a playmaker not a shot taker like Kevin Martin. Add in Lin's turnovers and that is going to be one [B]offensively anemic team[/B].

Asik is a beast but he's only ~10 PPG.

By the way, Harden is one greedy mofo to leave a guaranteed championship contender for several years over 5 million out of 60 million dollars over 4 years.

This makes the Jeff Green deal look like a steal, since they are going to average similar numbers just at different positions this year. Harden doesn't deserve a max deal.[B] Only players who could be at least your second best player on a championship team ever deserve a max deal[/B]. That's my thinking.

Rockets [B]22[/B] wins.[/QUOTE]



:oldlol:



They won 34 last year, in 66 games.


Anyway, Harden is an all-around player. He scores. He's going to score. And they have a ton of solid players all over the roster.

say what? just last week i said Harden would have to be the next breakout SG, now he's on a weaker team to get that chance. Plus he can make Jeremy Lin even more popular. :eek:

This is gonna make Lin so much more effective. Takes away the pressure of having to play point because Harden is so skilled. Now Houston has three play makes on the wings. They will play a very exciting style of ball. Should be fun watching Fox games this year.

Yeah you can be an amazing talent and not want to be the lead guy. He's not a lead guy, I don't think... you have to be a special person to really take a team on your back. There are so many guys that won't.

Think of Tim Duncan, for instance... people will slay me for saying this, but he's not a lead guy. He's got Manu and Parker who can come out and just chuck the game away and it's like damn you guys ****ed up... oh well.

Very few players can go out there (and this is one thing to Kobe's credit) and chuck a game away and be okay the next game. I don't think Harden is one of them. Unfortunately, the Rockets need him to be...

He has to shoot. If he stops shooting, his team will suffer. He can continue to get efficient stats, but it will affect the other players who NEED someone to be that go-to guy. He has to be a 25 ppg scorer IMO. He is capable, but is he mentally tough to shrug off those games where he gets 18 points on 30 shots?

-Smak

[QUOTE=daily]Harden and the bench mob last year without Durant or Westbrook were +14.6 pts per 100 possessions, better than the starting lineup of OKC which was something like 7.9

Starters obviously play against better talent but it's still a solid number for OKC's bench mob led by Harden[/QUOTE]

Yea but when you are on the bench it's not the same as knowing you HAVE to play well or you lose. coming out and knowing the first play will put the ball in your hands and you have to set the tone is much different than being in a "bench mob."

Hell Toni Kukoc was a beast off the bench.

-Smak

[QUOTE=ILLsmak]

Think of Tim Duncan, for instance... people will slay me for saying this, but he's not a lead guy. He's got Manu and Parker who can come out and just chuck the game away and it's like damn you guys ****ed up... oh well.
[/QUOTE]

Quite obvious Timmy's not the same player he once was. Hasn't been for awhile. Don't think you'd get slayed for saying that.

[QUOTE=ILLsmak]Yea but when you are on the bench it's not the same as knowing you HAVE to play well or you lose. coming out and knowing the first play will put the ball in your hands and you have to set the tone is much different than being in a "bench mob."

Hell Toni Kukoc was a beast off the bench.

-Smak[/QUOTE]:lol Get out of here with that new age mumbo jumbo. it's basketball. Ball, hole, play, Harden will be fine as a starter.

[QUOTE=ILLsmak]Yea but when you are on the bench it's not the same as knowing you HAVE to play well or you lose. coming out and knowing the first play will put the ball in your hands and you have to set the tone is much different than being in a "bench mob."

Hell Toni Kukoc was a beast off the bench.

-Smak[/QUOTE]
Harden is going to draw much more attention from defenses aswell, he doesn't have WB and KD to space the floor for him.

[QUOTE=daily]Harden and the bench mob last year without Durant or Westbrook were +14.6 pts per 100 possessions, better than the starting lineup of OKC which was something like 7.9

Starters obviously play against better talent but it's still a solid number for OKC's bench mob led by Harden[/QUOTE]

Yup.

OKC offense w/James Harden: 114.96 points per 100 possessions
OKC offense w/o James Harden: 100.84 points per 100 possessions

PLAYOFFS

OKC offense w/James Harden: 115.13 points per 100 possessions
OKC offense w/o James Harden: 102.46 points per 100 possessions

League average offense: 104.6 points per 100 possessions
Leauge best offense: 110.9 points per 100 possesions

Harden is basically a more durable version of Manu.

What a dumb move by Presti.

[QUOTE=Jacks3]Yup.

OKC offense w/James Harden: 114.96 points per 100 possessions
OKC offense w/o James Harden: 100.84 points per 100 possessions

PLAYOFFS

OKC offense w/James Harden: 115.13 points per 100 possessions
OKC offense w/o James Harden: 102.46 points per 100 possessions

League average offense: 104.6 points per 100 possessions
Leauge best offense: 110.9 points per 100 possesions

Harden is basically a more durable version of Manu.

What a dumb move by Presti.[/QUOTE]

Those numbers are ridiculous, even though I think the trade was fair, those numbers are crazy.

The Rockets are going to need offensive focus I think. It should be interesting to watch this team grow. :oldlol:

didn't see a thread on this...

i say 22/5/5/45%. i think he struggles a bit at first before finding his footing. i see FG% taking the biggest dip. can't say he'll be a superstar but eventual all-star is likely...he's really going to have to work on his mid-range game.

22/5/4/58-60% TS. Awesome advanced stats. Huge +/- numbers.

I dont know about next season, but this season he will get 15 to 25 shots a game in Houston. He could average 24 to 26 a game this season

If Arron Brooks could average 19 on the Rockets, I'm putting Harden at 23/4/5

Harden goes left, Lin goes right

double penetration! :djparty

Who would have thought Harden was traded after making this thread. Most people's opinion seems to be that Harden couldn't be the lead dog... well, we're about to find out. I doubt the Rockets have any chance at the playoffs out West though.

Lets now see and we will find out soon...

harden's stats with westbrook on/off the court:

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#James-Harden-vs-Russell-Westbrook|201935,201566;year=201112;season=r

as you can see, harden actually scores more on a higher % when westbrook is on the bench. close to 37% of harden's minutes come with westbrook on the bench.

now for his stats with durant on/off the court:

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#James-Harden-vs-Kevin-Durant|201935,201142;year=201112;season=r

again, his points and FG% increase while he effectively gets to the line. about 25% of harden's minutes come with durant on the bench (and westbrook overlaps w/ durant a lot).

this kind of shoots down the theory that harden is only a product of playing next to durant/wb.

you also see how much they all make each other better with the +/-. durant's +/- drop differential is actually greater than harden's without durant. same with westbrook...his + status goes way down when harden hits the bench.

could it be that many of harden's possessions lead to points, assists or FTs? hmm....

There probably needs to be clarity about what is meant by "lead" and "playoff caliber".

Assuming what is meant is "be the best player" and "a team that makes the playoffs" then yes, easily. Danny Granger did it, for example. [url]http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2011.html[/url]

Some people don't seem to get how good James Harden is.

Here's a list of the (all-time) guards who have been in Harden (last year)'s ballpark in terms of shooting.

[url]http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&qual=&c1stat=ts_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=.650&c2stat=mp&c2comp=gt&c2val=200&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=per&c4comp=gt&c4val=-1000&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws_per_48#stats::30[/url]

Most were specialist shooters on low usage and low minutes. The best comp seems to be Manu, a super efficient scorer, who gets to the line and a very well rounded player who contributes in all areas. The difference is that theres a fair chance Harden can be a 36+ mpg player whilst Manu could/can only ever play a max of 32 minutes. Now obviously %s fluctuate significantly year to year but Harden's career ts% is over .600 so I can't see him doing badly in that area. He may even end up getting more calls now that he's his team's star.

Harden is a max player (certainly now the max is lower). It will be interesting to see how he does taking on more shots but based on what we've seen thus far he should be fine.

[QUOTE=Owl]There probably needs to be clarity about what is meant by "lead" and "playoff caliber".

Assuming what is meant is "be the best player" and "a team that makes the playoffs" then yes, easily. Danny Granger did it, for example. [url]http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2011.html[/url]

Some people don't seem to get how good James Harden is.

Here's a list of the (all-time) guards who have been in Harden (last year)'s ballpark in terms of shooting.

[url]http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&qual=&c1stat=ts_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=.650&c2stat=mp&c2comp=gt&c2val=200&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=per&c4comp=gt&c4val=-1000&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws_per_48#stats::30[/url]

Most were specialist shooters on low usage and low minutes. The best comp seems to be Manu, a super efficient scorer, who gets to the line and a very well rounded player who contributes in all areas. The difference is that theres a fair chance Harden can be a 36+ mpg player whilst Manu could/can only ever play a max of 32 minutes. Now obviously %s fluctuate significantly year to year but Harden's career ts% is over .600 so I can't see him doing badly in that area. He may even end up getting more calls now that he's his team's star.

Harden is a max player (certainly now the max is lower). It will be interesting to see how he does taking on more shots but based on what we've seen thus far he should be fine.[/QUOTE]

well said. i didn't want to bring up manu even though the comparison is almost inevitable. manu only played 30 mpg twice in his whole career yet people want to say he was a solid #1 option. he never scored 20 ppg or had 5 apg or 5 rpg.

chalk it up to pop's minutes if you want but i think if you look at manu's per 36, that's about where harden will get at. even the TO's tend to add up.

[QUOTE=ILLsmak]Yeah you can be an amazing talent and not want to be the lead guy. He's not a lead guy, I don't think... you have to be a special person to really take a team on your back. There are so many guys that won't.

Very few players can go out there (and this is one thing to Kobe's credit) and chuck a game away and be okay the next game. I don't think Harden is one of them. Unfortunately, the Rockets need him to be...

He has to shoot. If he stops shooting, his team will suffer. He can continue to get efficient stats, but it will affect the other players who NEED someone to be that go-to guy. He has to be a 25 ppg scorer IMO. He is capable, but is he mentally tough to shrug off those games where he gets 18 points on 30 shots?

-Smak[/QUOTE]

I watched Harden virtually ever game of his college career, and that has always been my take on the guy. Lots of talent and ability, but not what the NFL calls the "Cornerback/quarterback" mentality" : the ability to handle all the pressure to produce, night in and night out, along with the selective amnesia to forget those halves/nights when you don't.

He's a few years older and has established some NBA comfort level, but I'll personally be surprised if he can be the unquestioned lead guy on a team that's anything but mediocre.

[QUOTE=blacknapalm]harden's stats with westbrook on/off the court:

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#James-Harden-vs-Russell-Westbrook|201935,201566;year=201112;season=r

as you can see, harden actually scores more on a higher % when westbrook is on the bench. close to 37% of harden's minutes come with westbrook on the bench.

now for his stats with durant on/off the court:

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#James-Harden-vs-Kevin-Durant|201935,201142;year=201112;season=r

again, his points and FG% increase while he effectively gets to the line. about 25% of harden's minutes come with durant on the bench (and westbrook overlaps w/ durant a lot).

this kind of shoots down the theory that harden is only a product of playing next to durant/wb.

you also see how much they all make each other better with the +/-. durant's +/- drop differential is actually greater than harden's without durant. same with westbrook...his + status goes way down when harden hits the bench.

could it be that many of harden's possessions lead to points, assists or FTs? hmm....[/QUOTE]

Did you account for the fact that 95% of the time Harden was playing with Durant/Westbrook on the bench he was playing against other teams' 2nd unit?

[QUOTE=Whoah10115]:oldlol:



They won 34 last year, in 66 games.


Anyway, Harden is an all-around player. He scores. He's going to score. And they have a ton of solid players all over the roster.[/QUOTE]


Before Harden I had them as a sub-20 win team. Sure they won about half their games last year but their roster is almost entirely different.

It just looked like the worst roster in the league to me. Even worse than the Magic and Bobcats.

[QUOTE=Pushxx]Before Harden I had them as a sub-20 win team. Sure they won about half their games last year but their roster is almost entirely different.

It just looked like the worst roster in the league to me. Even worse than the Magic and Bobcats.[/QUOTE]




The worst? Don't get me wrong, they have an odd mix. They just have lots and lots of players. But, all of their players can play. It was just a mishmash before. They just got rid of 2 SG's and they're bringing in Harden. The team is suddenly a lot better.



[QUOTE=Owl]The difference is that theres a fair chance Harden can be a 36+ mpg player whilst Manu could/can only ever play a max of 32 minutes. [/QUOTE]



This does not tell the story. Tony Parker doesn't play many minutes either. Never has.

Parker has played 36Min exactly 0 times. His career average is 32.9.


That's just the way the Spurs go. Even Duncan, before he started declining, had minutes reduced. After he won his 2nd MVP his minutes dropped to 36.6 and after that he never played 35Min again.

[QUOTE=blacknapalm]

this kind of shoots down the theory that harden is only a product of playing next to durant/wb.

[/QUOTE]

OK, but let's remember many of Harden's minutes are against other teams 2nd unit......so.........now he'll be competing against other teams starters .:confusedshrug:

[QUOTE=AK47DR91]They're gonna need him to average around 24 PPG if they want a playoff spot.

Lin won't average more than 16 PPG. Same with Asik (15 and 12 type guy).[/QUOTE]
What on earth has given you the impression that Omer Asik can average 15 PPG?

[QUOTE=bagelred]OK, but let's remember many of Harden's minutes are against other teams 2nd unit......so.........now he'll be competing against other teams starters .:confusedshrug:[/QUOTE]

oh certainly. actually played my own devil's advocate and brought that up in another thread. still think it's a fairly telling stat

typing from cell phone...

this deal tells me okc didnt feel he was wortg more than ibaka. also tells me they want flexibility n westbrook and durant are cornerstones whick makes sense. i see them wanting westbrook to handle the ball. i also see them wanting eric maynor to run a traditional second unit and pj3 has impressed.

hardens play in finals influenced okc,to not spend,tge bank on him.

He could be nr1 scorer and go to guy in the clutch, but I expect rockets wont be too much dependent on the beard. With our young guys developing, in a few years I see strong team fighting for top spots.

[QUOTE=bmulls]Did you account for the fact that 95% of the time Harden was playing with Durant/Westbrook on the bench he was playing against other teams' 2nd unit?[/QUOTE]

Exaaaaactly. Harden isn't suddenly going to go beast mode against every teams best wing defender.

[QUOTE=bmulls]Did you account for the fact that 95% of the time Harden was playing with Durant/Westbrook on the bench he was playing against other teams' 2nd unit?[/QUOTE]
That's a bunch of BS. Google before you type. from looking at it it's safe to say that it;s closer to 95% of the time Harden was on the floor with Durant and Westbrook

Number one most seen combination on the floor for 688 minutes last season, Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins

Number two most seen combination on the floor last year 408 minutes, Westbrook-[B]Harden[/B]-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins

#5 Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Ibaka-Collison
#6 Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Collison-Perkins
#7 Westbrook-Harden-Sefolosha-Durant
*8 Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Collison

Number one offensive combination on the floor last year, Westbrook-[B]Harden[/B]-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins

Of the top 10 win% of player combos (OKC used 20 different variations last season) Harden is in 8 of the top 10 combinations

[QUOTE=daily]That's a bunch of BS. Google before you type. from looking at it it's safe to say that it;s closer to 95% of the time Harden was on the floor with Durant and Westbrook

Number one most seen combination on the floor for 688 minutes last season, Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins

Number two most seen combination on the floor last year 408 minutes, Westbrook-[B]Harden[/B]-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins

#5 Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Ibaka-Collison
#6 Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Collison-Perkins
#7 Westbrook-Harden-Sefolosha-Durant
*8 Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Collison

Number one offensive combination on the floor last year, Westbrook-[B]Harden[/B]-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins

Of the top 10 win% of player combos (OKC used 20 different variations last season) Harden is in 8 of the top 10 combinations[/QUOTE]

:applause:

Harden didn't face other teams benchs 95% of the time, simple math would tell you that.
He averaged 31 minutes a game, starters usually play 35 minutes a game so that leaves about 13 minutes for the bench players to play.