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Hey guyz, I know we're at the start of the 2016 Finals now but I have this odds analysis that was done 100 games ago. Should we include the 100 games into our Finals odds calculation or just ignore it and use the calculation that was done 100 games ago (82+18)?
:lol
[QUOTE=dankok8;14503106]^ I wish we had betting odds data prior to 1984-85 so I could extend this analysis further back to include Russell, Wilt, Kareem etc.[/QUOTE]
I have read thousands of articles about Wilt from a variety of newspapers: “The New York Times,” the Boston papers, the “LA Times” and the then three Philly dailies, “The Bulletin,” “The Inquirer” and the “Daily News.”
Even in the Philly papers, Wilt’s teams, pre-season, were not favoured to win the Eastern division title from Boston nor, in the playoff, where they favoured to defeat Boston.
That even in the Philly papers that the Warriors or the Sixers were not picked to defeat Boston was not shocking to me.
The exception was in 1966-67 when Wilt’s team did win and in 1967-68, when they blew a 3-1 lead.
[QUOTE=dankok8;14502712]There is a lot of discussion on online forums, barber shops etc. talk about how certain athletes exceed expectations while others underachieve but there has never been a way to quantify this. I have recently realized that Preseason Odds on Basketball-Reference can be used to estimate championship odds for teams of certain players. Here is the methodology.
Say player X had a five year career and his teams had Preseason Odds of +800, +250, +300, +1200, and +10000 to win titles in those years. Those betting lines can be converted to implied odds which is probability of winning using an application like this.
[url]https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html[/url]
This is the data that we get for player X:
Year 1: 11.1% —> 0.111 expected titles
Year 2: 28.6% —> 0.286 expected titles
Year 3: 25.0% —> 0.250 expected titles
Year 4: 7.7% —> 0.077 expected titles
Year 5: 1.0% —> 0.010 expected titles
Total: 0.734 expected titles
Dividing the percentages by 100 gives us expected titles won for that particular year. So for instance in year 3, the player has 0.250 expected titles. If we add up all five years we get 0.734 expected titles meaning that this player should reasonably be expected to win 0.734 titles in that 5-year span. This methodology also makes intuitive sense. For example, if a team has 50% chance of winning a title two years in a row then they are expected to win one championship. If the same team has a 50% chance of winning for four years then they are expected to win two championships.
Preseason title odds are available for the NBA since the 1984-85 season. Comparing expected titles with the number of championships the player actually won we can get an idea if said player’s teams overachieved or underachieved. Here are some of the biggest legends ranked in order of titles above expected. A high positive score is obviously the best while a negative score is bad and indicates underachieving.
[B]Titles Above Expected of Some Legends: 1984-85 to 2020-21[/B]
[IMG]https://i.postimg.cc/ncTRJ7LN/Expected-Championships.png[/IMG]
See the attached link to download the PDF for year-by-year numbers of each player.
[URL="https://file.io/lPxc8SCh7Zpa"]https://file.io/lPxc8SCh7Zpa[/URL][/QUOTE]
Great Stuff!
Why this?
[url]https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2011_preseason_odds.html[/url] (Dallas 7th)
[url]https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2014_preseason_odds.html[/url] (San Antonio 6th)
[url]https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015_preseason_odds.html[/url] (Golden State 8th)
[url]https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2019_preseason_odds.html[/url] (Raptors 5th)
[url]https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2021_preseason_odds.html[/url] (Lakers 1st)
[QUOTE=TheCorporation;14503600]Hey guyz, I know we're at the start of the 2016 Finals now but I have this odds analysis that was done 100 games ago. Should we include the 100 games into our Finals odds calculation or just ignore it and use the calculation that was done 100 games ago (82+18)?
:lol[/QUOTE]
:oldlol:
Let's ignore what acutally happened in the regular season and playoffs and go with the prediction made 100 games ago :roll:
[QUOTE=ELITEpower23;14504092]:oldlol:
Let's ignore what acutally happened in the regular season and playoffs and go with the prediction made 100 games ago :roll:[/QUOTE]
You mean the team’s actual incapacity to play their true potential?
[QUOTE=ELITEpower23;14504092]:oldlol:
Let's ignore what acutally happened in the regular season and playoffs and go with the prediction made 100 games ago :roll:[/QUOTE]
Both the #2 and #3 guy get injured and literally don't play in the playoffs/finals.
Sorry, no excuse for you. Look at your pre-season odds! :lol :oldlol: :roll:
[QUOTE=tpols;14503444]The Lakers underachieved in those years. Especially in 2013. Not sure what your point is.[/QUOTE]
Preseason odds do not account for injuries, chemistry, and a bunch of other stuff. I mean, you live for Kobe. Replace LeBron with Kobe on all of LeBron's teams, and they'd do significantly worse. They'd have worse preseason odds as well.
I'm working on another Titles Over Expected (TOE) metric but using postseason odds at the beginning of the playoffs. So far the results seem very similar with using preseason odds, not nearly the kind of differences that people expect. Some players are a bit higher or lower but nothing major. Anyways I think both metrics have their advantages and disadvantages. Preseason odds still reward maximizing team ceilings over the course of the entire season but are affected by injuries, trades (rare) etc. However postseason odds also have their downside namely what happens to teams that miss the playoffs entirely. They get a total pass because their title odds are obviously zero. And they still don't account for injuries that happen in the playoffs.
A piece of good news is that I can find postseason odds going back to at least the mid 70's so I can add Lakers Kareem, Moses, Dr J and do Magic and Bird's entire careers. I'd love to add Wilt and Russell as well but that will require some serious research through newspapers.
[QUOTE=ELITEpower23;14504092]:oldlol:
Let's ignore what acutally happened in the regular season and playoffs and go with the prediction made 100 games ago :roll:[/QUOTE]
:roll: Exactly
No one would talk about Lebron's Finals comp if the 2016 Finals was a meeting of 2 titans with close odds
But instead, Lebron's preseason favorite fell to massive Finals underdog, and then his fans complained about Finals comp..
Lebron had a super-team and the preseason favorite from 2011-2016, so he can't complain about being a Finals underdog those years.
This type of fraud is typical of Lebron's career because his resume would be shit without forming super-teams in a conference that Dwight was winning by himself, along with other 1-star teams (Iverson, Kidd).