Wilt Chamberlain scoring highlights 1960-1968

[QUOTE=fpliii]This post, right?

[url]http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9461568&postcount=247[/url]

(Apologies, I changed over to 40 posts displayed per page in the User CP, so links to specific pages of a thread don't work for me.)

I think based on the swarming defense/multiple defenders, it backs up what I said in my next post in (1) and (2). His poor FT shooting made fouling him an option, while his lack of shooters and second scorers (on the Warriors at least) made it a viable option.[/QUOTE]

As you can see, it was Wilt vs. BOSTON in those H2H's. And it applied at the OTHER end, as well. For instance, (and these are just two examples), in game four of the '64 Finals, Russell tips in the winning basket, BUT, Wilt had jumped out to alter Tommy Heinsohn's shot. And in game seven of the '62 EDF's, Sam Jones hit the game-winning basket...over Wilt's out-stretched fingertips.

Wilt was as close to a one-man team as the league has ever seen. In fact, his teammates often had a negative impact. I have posted them before, but here they are again...

[QUOTE]

Wilt's HOF Teammate's Playoff FG%'s...

'60 Arizin .431 Gola .412
'61 Arizin .325 Gola .206
'62 Arizin .375 Gola .271
'63 Gola...played 21 games and was shipped out
'64 Thurmond .438
'65 Greer .455 Walker .480
'66 Greer .352 Cunningham .161 Walker .375
'67 Greer .429 Walker .467 Cunningham .376
'68 Greer .432 Walker .410 Cunningham broke wrist in first round (played 3 games)
'69 West .469 Baylor .385
'70 West .469 Baylor .466
'71 West and Baylor...both injured and do not play in playoffs. Goodrich .425
'72 Baylor retires after 9 nine games. West .376. Goodrich .445
'73 West .449 Goodrich .448

'62 Meschery was NOT an all-star. Shoots .397 in playoffs.
'63 Meschery (* All Star. Played 64 games. 16 ppg .425 FG% during season.)
'63 Rodgers (shoots .387 in regular season.
'64 Rodgers .329 in post-season.
'65 Jackson .338 in playoffs[/QUOTE]

And here were his teammates collective eFG%'s (minus Wilt's) in those post-seasons:

[QUOTE]'60 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .380 from the field. Lose game six of EDF's.

'61 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .332 from the field. Lose in 1st round.

'62 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .354 from the field. Lose in game seven of EDF's.

'64 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .383 from the field. Lose in game five of Finals.

'65 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .413 from the field. Lose in game seven of EDF's.

'66 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .352 from the field. Lose in game five of EDF's.

'67 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .428 from the field. Wins Title

'68 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .416 from the field. Lose in game seven of EDF's.

'69 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .421 from the field. Lose game seven of Finals.

'70 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .469 from the field. Lose game seven of Finals.

'71 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .446 from the field. Lose game five of WCF's.

'72 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .414 from the field. Wins Title.

'73 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .446 from the field. Lose game five of Finals.[/QUOTE]

Those are pretty bad percentages. Since we're only dealing with volume scoring Wilt in the playoffs here:

'60 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .380 from the field. Lose game six of EDF's.

'61 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .332 from the field. Lose in 1st round.

'62 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .354 from the field. Lose in game seven of EDF's.

'64 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .383 from the field. Lose in game five of Finals.

'65 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .413 from the field. Lose in game seven of EDF's.

'66 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .352 from the field. Lose in game five of EDF's.

League average in those seasons:

60 .410
61 .415
62 .426
64 .433
65 .426
66 .433

Well below average (playoff defenses are harder and they faced Boston, but those are terrible nonethless). So that means of my two theories, (2) is at least in part correct. I'm still working on the spreadsheet for fouling, which might help explain (1) (but part of it is stylistic, so we'll need more anecdotes of double teams and CavsFTW's scouting video).

And again, this "post-season means all" crap is pretty ridiculous.

Giving Oscar's post-seasons in which he played just five games, some kind of preference over Chamberlain's entire regular seasons, and then multiple playoff series, is just laughable.

Yep...let's just throw out 90% of an entire season, and with at least a solid share of those games having playoff implications...and just use five playoff games as THE true indication of a great scorer.

My god, Bernard King's 5 game series against the Pistons in 83-84, in which he averaged 42.6 ppg on an eFG% of .604, and a TS% of .644 would make him the all-time GOAT scorer. Let's just forget about the rest of his entire career, though, and use that ONE five game series, as THE measuring stick.

Luckily for Elway, Unitas, Jim Brown, and Willie Mays, that those guys's careers were not ranked solely on post-season play.

For the advanced stats nerds:

[URL="http://basketballjournalist.blogspot.com/2011/08/best-defensive-centers-of-all-time.html"]http://basketballjournalist.blogspot.com/2011/08/best-defensive-centers-of-all-time.html[/URL]

:bowdown:

[QUOTE=fpliii]Those are pretty bad percentages. Since we're only dealing with volume scoring Wilt in the playoffs here:

'60 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .380 from the field. Lose game six of EDF's.

'61 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .332 from the field. Lose in 1st round.

'62 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .354 from the field. Lose in game seven of EDF's.

'64 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .383 from the field. Lose in game five of Finals.

'65 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .413 from the field. Lose in game seven of EDF's.

'66 Playoffs. Teammates collectively shoot .352 from the field. Lose in game five of EDF's.

[B]League average in those seasons[/B]:

[B]60 .410[/B]
[B]61 .415[/B]
[B]62 .426[/B]
[B]64 .433[/B]
[B]65 .426[/B]
[B]66 .433[/B]

Well below average (playoff defenses are harder and they faced Boston, but those are terrible nonethless). So that means of my two theories, (2) is at least in part correct. I'm still working on the spreadsheet for fouling, which might help explain (1) (but part of it is stylistic, so we'll need more anecdotes of double teams and CavsFTW's scouting video).[/QUOTE]


You were right, of course, post-season eFG% were a little tougher overall...

'60. .402
'61. .403
'62. .411
'64. .420
'65. .429
'66. .441.

BTW, here were Wilt's eFG%'s in those six post-seasons...

'60. .496 (and 30.5 ppg on a .500 eFG% against Russell)

'61. .469

'62. .467 (33.6 ppg on a .468 eFG% against Russell)

'64. .543 (29.2 ppg on a .517 eFG% against Russell) And 38.6 ppg on a .559 eFG% against the Hawks.

'65. .530 (30.1 ppg on a .555 eFG% against Russell)

'66. .509 (28.0 ppg on a .509 eFG% against Russell.)

And let's throw in his '67 as well.

Post-season League eFG% was .428.

Against the Royals, 28.0 ppg on a .617 eFG%
Against the Celtics, 21.6 ppg on a .556 eFG%
Against the Warriors, 17.5 ppg on a .560 eFG%.

I also like Wilt's '68 playoff series against Bellamy (and he held Bellamy to .421 BTW...in a season in which Bellamy shot .541 against the NBA) In a post-season that shot .446, Chamberlain averaged 25.0 ppg on a .584 eFG%.

[QUOTE=Audio One]For the advanced stats nerds:

[URL="http://basketballjournalist.blogspot.com/2011/08/best-defensive-centers-of-all-time.html"]http://basketballjournalist.blogspot.com/2011/08/best-defensive-centers-of-all-time.html[/URL]

:bowdown:[/QUOTE]

Yep...no real surprise there, except perhaps Thurmond seems a bit low. But then again, he seldom won a playoff series. He certainly had Kareem's number in their three post-season H2H's.

Wow, good find Lazeruss, you were right about the difference in TS% being too low.

I just found a huge error in my 3-for-2 research. When calculating % of the time in the penalty, I used:

4

[QUOTE=fpliii]Wow, good find Lazeruss, you were right about the difference in TS% being too low.

I just found a huge error in my 3-for-2 research. When calculating % of the time in the penalty, I used:

4

[QUOTE=LAZERUSS]You are so far ahead of me, you might as well type that formula in Russian.

BTW, those two formulas look identical to me.

I wish I had even a tenth of your mathematical ability.

Glad it's you and not me tasked with this research.

In any case, it is greatly appreciated.[/QUOTE]
Oops sorry, fixed it. The second one (fixed version) does not have x.875.

It's time we move on to a more competitive, more entertaining era of basketball.

[QUOTE=fpliii]Oops sorry, fixed it. The second one (fixed version) does not have x.875.[/QUOTE]

Of course, I had no idea what I was really looking at, but glad you do.

So it's not a massive difference, but it's still quite big:

[code] sPF% tTS% tTSA ∆
1960 0.22 0.492 38.6 0.5%
1961 0.25 0.523 37.2 0.7%
1962 0.23 0.539 47.2 0.5%
1963 0.23 0.555 40.8 0.5%
1964 0.25 0.543 34.4 0.7%
1965tot 0.23 0.519 33.8 0.6%
1965sfw 0.23 0.501 39.3 0.6%
1965phi 0.23 0.547 27.8 0.6%
1966 0.24 0.556 30.5 0.7%
1967 0.39 0.656 19.0 2.1%
1968 0.39 0.579 21.6 1.7%
1969 0.37 0.581 18.3 1.8%
1970 0.36 0.564 25.0 1.6%
1971 0.34 0.562 18.8 1.2%
1972 0.32 0.614 12.4 1.6%
1973 0.30 0.650 10.5 1.9%
1960P 0.22 0.497 33.8 0.6%
1961P 0.25 0.495 37.8 0.6%
1962P 0.23 0.510 34.6 0.5%
1964P 0.25 0.549 32.0 0.7%
1965P 0.23 0.560 26.5 0.8%
1966P 0.24 0.511 27.9 0.9%
1967P 0.39 0.562 20.0 1.8%
1968P 0.39 0.531 23.0 1.6%
1969P 0.37 0.536 13.4 1.9%
1970P 0.36 0.538 21.2 1.6%
1971P 0.34 0.483 19.4 1.0%
1972P 0.32 0.566 13.4 1.7%
1973P 0.30 0.523 10.3 1.7%[/code]

But here's the TSA/TS% data against Boston and other opponents in the playoffs:

[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/3OIGAXx.png[/IMG]

So against Boston 28.9 TSA on .528 TS%, against everyone else 24.5 TSA on .522 TS%, or 4.5 fewer TSA on +.006 TS% against the Celtics.

[QUOTE=fpliii]So it's not a massive difference, but it's still quite big:

[code] sPF% tTS% tTSA ∆
1960 0.22 0.492 38.6 0.5%
1961 0.25 0.523 37.2 0.7%
1962 0.23 0.539 47.2 0.5%
1963 0.23 0.555 40.8 0.5%
1964 0.25 0.543 34.4 0.7%
1965tot 0.23 0.519 33.8 0.6%
1965sfw 0.23 0.501 39.3 0.6%
1965phi 0.23 0.547 27.8 0.6%
1966 0.24 0.556 30.5 0.7%
1967 0.39 0.656 19.0 2.1%
1968 0.39 0.579 21.6 1.7%
1969 0.37 0.581 18.3 1.8%
1970 0.36 0.564 25.0 1.6%
1971 0.34 0.562 18.8 1.2%
1972 0.32 0.614 12.4 1.6%
1973 0.30 0.650 10.5 1.9%
1960P 0.22 0.497 33.8 0.6%
1961P 0.25 0.495 37.8 0.6%
1962P 0.23 0.510 34.6 0.5%
1964P 0.25 0.549 32.0 0.7%
1965P 0.23 0.560 26.5 0.8%
1966P 0.24 0.511 27.9 0.9%
1967P 0.39 0.562 20.0 1.8%
1968P 0.39 0.531 23.0 1.6%
1969P 0.37 0.536 13.4 1.9%
1970P 0.36 0.538 21.2 1.6%
1971P 0.34 0.483 19.4 1.0%
1972P 0.32 0.566 13.4 1.7%
1973P 0.30 0.523 10.3 1.7%[/code]

But here's the TSA/TS% data against Boston and other opponents in the playoffs:

[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/3OIGAXx.png[/IMG]

So against Boston 28.9 TSA on .528 TS%, against everyone else 24.5 TSA on .522 TS%, or 4.5 fewer TSA on +.006 TS% against the Celtics.[/QUOTE]


Not sure exactly what I am looking at (no surprise there of course), but what do you come up with Wilt's total effective TS%'s?

In other words, we know that his actual listed '60 playoff TS% was .498, so does your research indicate a .519? Or about a full 2% higher?

Or are you using a TRUE TS%, instead of the .44 TS%? In which case, you would have to adjust your numbers a little higher.

[QUOTE=LAZERUSS]Not sure exactly what I am looking at (no surprise there of course), but what do you come up with Wilt's total effective TS%'s?

In other words, we know that his actual listed '60 playoff TS% was .498, so does your research indicate a .519? Or about a full 2% higher?[/QUOTE]
Ah sorry, there are two pieces of data here, a table and a picture.

The table is for entire playoff runs or seasons, and has four columns:

sPF% = % of time his team was in the penalty
tTS% = true TS%
tTSA = true TSA
∆ = difference from basketball-reference.com TS%

The graphic is a screenshot of my spreadsheet with numbers and information. Again, tTS% and tTSA are the valuable data here, but I left the numbers from my calculations in, along with the number of games from each year and opponent. Of the columns that aren't obvious:

%poss = percentage of free throw attempts which are possessional (i.e. not penalties, etc.)
coeff = coefficient in TS% (.44 is used typically, but there's some variation from season-to-season based on foul rates on FGA)
aTS% = what WOULD be TS% if his opponent was in the penalty 100 of the time
PF = average personal fouls by his opponents per game (these aren't whole numbers, I just truncated it from displaying decimals)

[QUOTE=LAZERUSS]Or are you using a TRUE TS%, instead of the .44 TS%? In which case, you would have to adjust your numbers a little higher.[/QUOTE]
I'm not sure what TRUE TS% is, but here are the values if I change the coefficient to .44 for every playoff series:

[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/Xl8zCPC.png[/IMG]