NBA Gambling Discussion Thread

[QUOTE=tpols;14771694]I see what you're saying but in my personal betting experience it seems like over time when I bet pregame coinflip odds I maintain a flatline balance...win, lose, win, lose over and over. Like a hamster wheel. But when I bet bigger money on favorites my bankroll grows. Especially if I can spot a tell. (Like ref bias)

I'm starting to frequent the sportbook sub reddit though and trying to reevaluate my strategy / throw some other strategies into the mix.

I do get what your saying though. Courage is a big deal in gambling but it's a fine line between that and being dumb with it and overextending yourself.[/QUOTE]

because now you made 33% of your stake and bet a line that was like 75% favorable and it turned into a 50/50 shootout, at times more likely to lose than win (harden save). so if you get this kind of bet right 3 times but wrong once, youre dead even.

starting with 600 and being at 1400 is good though.

when you have less bankroll which you usually do at the start as you dont wanna make any big losses with your capital but only bet won money to get you going, betting is a lot more difficult. ive been there. i mainly buit myself up with small parlays.

eventually raising my stakes more and more.

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater;14771700]because now you made 33% of your stake and bet a line that was like 75% favorable and it turned into a 50/50 shootout, at times more likely to lose than win (harden save). so if you get this kind of bet right 3 times but wrong once, youre dead even.

starting with 600 and being at 1400 is good though.

when you have less bankroll which you usually do at the start as you dont wanna make any big losses with your capital but only bet won money to get you going, betting is a lot more difficult. ive been there. i mainly buit myself up with small parlays.

eventually raising my stakes more and more.[/QUOTE]

I knew a guy who used to exclusively do like 8-9 leg parlays and meltdown when 1 of the legs would inevitably fail.

He also was huge into underdog betting and put a bet on that vikings colts game from a few months ago when the vikings came back by like 30+ points. Guy was damn near flipping tables over in his adrenaline rush.

I don't have the balls to place bets like that so I usually play it safe but am trying to learn new strategies and mix it up.

[QUOTE=tpols;14771711]I knew a guy who used to exclusively do like 8-9 leg parlays and meltdown when 1 of the legs would inevitably fail.

He also was huge into underdog betting and put a bet on that vikings colts game from a few months ago when the vikings came back by like 30+ points. Guy was damn near flipping tables over in his adrenaline rush.

I don't have the balls to place bets like that so I usually play it safe but am trying to learn new strategies and mix it up.[/QUOTE]

well like i said those big parlays are sucker bets and bookies love them cause 1-2 legs always fail. so if you do them they should be very low risk/stake, which is what i used to do.

also cashing out, out of principle always kills your winnings. you will never get even if you cash out for principle as soon as you are up just to "be safe". if you have a tell, do it. other than that, bookies love cash outs.

i woud advise if you get your bankroll up to 2000 in your acc to take the 600 out, so ideally you are only ever betting with won money.

its possible you will have to re-finance but thats the ideal. i started with like 200-300 back in 2016, i got up a k, back down.. up 2 ks, back to 0... all in all i had to load up my acc with new money about 5-6 times i think. ever since 2019 ive been playing with won money only, never made a new deposit, and am in the plus big time for life.

ill say this its not for everyone. no false illusions. only 2-3% make money with betting longterm. so be careful out there fellas

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater;14771720]ill say this its not for everyone. no false illusions. only 2-3% make money with betting longterm. so be careful out there fellas[/QUOTE]

Sometimes I do just want to cash out because betting makes watching sports stressful. Instead of just kicking back and enjoying the game you have to be hyper obsessed with a particular outcome. I'm platinum in yahoo fantasy football but think I'm gonna quit because of how stressful it made Sundays.

[QUOTE=tpols;14771733]Sometimes I do just want to cash out because betting makes watching sports stressful. Instead of just kicking back and enjoying the game you have to be hyper obsessed with a particular outcome. I'm platinum in yahoo fantasy football but think I'm gonna quit because of how stressful it made Sundays.[/QUOTE]

yea thats not good. thats not how it feels for me. prob cause youre playing with more of your capital.

occasionally i will bet shit just for the thrill lol. so ill sit down and watch a tennis match with some money on it.

Big drip arby.

[IMG]https://i.postimg.cc/hPDxxbS5/Screenshot-20230513-005156-Fan-Duel-Sportsbook.jpg[/IMG]

:pimp:

Been on a spree recently.

[IMG]https://i.postimg.cc/qvF6dkJ4/Screenshot-20230513-082223-Fan-Duel-Sportsbook.jpg[/IMG]

Very nice my man, very nice.

:pimp:

[IMG]https://i.gyazo.com/94eddc3164c96f528e88341972faafcc.png[/IMG]




[IMG]https://i.pinimg.com/736x/ea/33/ac/ea33ac15a322e96a1405cd21faa3be34--seinfeld-cigars.jpg[/IMG]

Still up, but this series is tough because the odds are ridiculous in Denvers favor. -390 isn't worth it unless betting in game and the outcome looks certain.

Spread is -/+ 9 which is crazy blowout type spread. Honestly I think with Miamis lack of rest, Denver altitude, and Denver being fully rested and prime to pop off the spread on Game 1 may be worth it. I could see Denver winning by 15+ points.

[QUOTE=tpols;14791287]Still up, but this series is tough because the odds are ridiculous in Denvers favor. -390 isn't worth it unless betting in game and the outcome looks certain.

Spread is -/+ 9 which is crazy blowout type spread. Honestly I think with Miamis lack of rest, Denver altitude, and Denver being fully rested and prime to pop off the spread on Game 1 may be worth it. I could see Denver winning by 15+ points.[/QUOTE]

Put your money where your mouth is player. Nuggets could come out, out of sync. Heat picking up where they left off.


Bet $1800 on Nuggets covering.

[QUOTE=AlternativeAcc.;14791291]Put your money where your mouth is player. Nuggets could come out, out of sync. Heat picking up where they left off.


Bet $1800 on Nuggets covering.[/QUOTE]

:roll:

You just want to see me lose my bankroll.

Sorry son, until I get a feel for the series I'm not betting anything big.

100 bucks is all I'll put on a spread like that but I need to see how the action looks in the 1st quarter. If Miami looks slow and tired I may up the ante. They're coming off a brutally draining series.

I'm pissing your blood pressure. because the earth is flat.

[QUOTE=tpols;14791295]:roll:

You just want to see me lose my bankroll.

Sorry son, until I get a feel for the series I'm not betting anything big.

100 bucks is all I'll put on a spread like that but I need to see how the action looks in the 1st quarter. If Miami looks slow and tired I may up the ante. They're coming off a brutally draining series.[/QUOTE]

Kinda risky for a team like the Heat who linger and fight back. You'd get worse odds if they show up poorly in the first half of the 1st quarter, only for them to turn it on later

I'd go all in from Denver. Don't be a bitch bro.

[QUOTE=AlternativeAcc.;14791306]Kinda risky for a team like the Heat who linger and fight back. You'd get worse odds if they show up poorly in the first half of the 1st quarter, only for them to turn it on later

I'd go all in from Denver. Don't be a bitch bro.[/QUOTE]

Generally speaking you've been wrong on almost every prediction you've made this post season while I've lost some but won more than I lost.

If it were up to your intellect being correct the Suns or Celtics or Lakers would be in the Finals right now.

I could probably profit on simply doing the opposite of what you say. :oldlol:

Am I crazy or is 1.6 a crazy line for the Sixers? The Sixers are an absolute banker to win game 6 to me.


Cause 1.6 is crazy high. Id put them at 1.3. Theres no way they lose game 6 after how game 5 ended.


I put a k on it.

Half a band on the Clipps tonight. Harden better make it rain.

[QUOTE=brownmamba00;14905981]Half a band on the Clipps tonight. Harden better make it rain.[/QUOTE]

I like it but the thing with PG and Harden is, Im not sure how long they can carry a team. They def can chime in with huge games, but to count on them for an entire series? I wouldnt be surprised if there wont be much tonight from them.

Although PG has carried the Clips for a significant stretch in the 2021 WCF.

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater;14905982]I like it but the thing with PG and Harden is, Im not sure how long they can carry a team. They def can chime in with huge games, but to count on them for an entire series? I wouldnt be surprised if there wont be much tonight from them.

Although PG has carried the Clips for a significant stretch in the 2021 WCF.[/QUOTE]

PG can carry. They still got Brody off the bench.

2-0 without Kawhi he stalls the offense anyway with his ISO mid range crap. They play better with Harden running point.

[QUOTE=brownmamba00;14905983]PG can carry. They still got Brody off the bench.

2-0 without Kawhi he stalls the offense anyway with his ISO mid range crap. They play better with Harden running point.[/QUOTE]


They might, its not an insane take.

But Brody off the bench is an insane take. Dudes ass.

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater;14905989]They might, its not an insane take.

But Brody off the bench is an insane take. Dudes ass.[/QUOTE]

2.2 I'll take the risk

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater;14905978]Am I crazy or is 1.6 a crazy line for the Sixers? The Sixers are an absolute banker to win game 6 to me.


Cause 1.6 is crazy high. Id put them at 1.3. Theres no way they lose game 6 after how game 5 ended.


I put a k on it.[/QUOTE]


Not just did this fail, but I had 100 on Embiid for top scorer, which failed cause Brunson got fouled with 7 seconds left... fml :lol

I know Sixers have sucked but should they be dogs against Magic without Banchero, in Orlando?

Theyre without Maxey but they still have a much more impressive team.

Isnt the Nuggets at 15 to 1 way too high?


I would have felt even better about this value had they traded Murray for LaVine.

Memphis Grizzlies are big underdogs @ +245 tonight while Warriors are at -300. Vegas wants all the sucker's to bet Golden State, and I do think they can win but these margins are silly. I've noticed I make more money off spotting these type of under dog bets rather than just going blindly with the favorite. The line shouldn't be this far apart with both curry and butler banged up. And Memphis having top seed talent before coach firing. Those guys are all still here.

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater;14771720]ill say this its not for everyone. no false illusions. only 2-3% make money with betting longterm. so be careful out there fellas[/QUOTE]

Wow rare moment this dyckhead makes sense

[QUOTE=tpols;14992620]Memphis Grizzlies are big underdogs @ +245 tonight while Warriors are at -300. Vegas wants all the sucker's to bet Golden State, and I do think they can win but these margins are silly. I've noticed I make more money off spotting these type of under dog bets rather than just going blindly with the favorite. The line shouldn't be this far apart with both curry and butler banged up. And Memphis having top seed talent before coach firing. Those guys are all still here.[/QUOTE]

Could be closer, but I do just see GS win this. Have Memphis had a single big win this year? Feels like they lose every game against elite teams.

1st play of the playoffs, 1st win.

150 on the Nuggets at 2.5 ish for +210. Mid 3rd quarter down 6 I did not see why they should be dogs.

Momentum had switched. You could see them turning it.


[IMG]https://i.gyazo.com/6520265659c7616352fa482125ade8df.png[/IMG]
[IMG]https://i.gyazo.com/3ee0b22adecaf37dd054d03e1af77708.png[/IMG]
[IMG]https://i.gyazo.com/0f8d931c03f0f2aac65dce0b213e972d.png[/IMG]

Didnt bet basketball during the RS.


Gonna try to track all postseason bets here. Tennis is where I make my money.

Clippers just cost me $60.

I'm so sick of betting, I took a few months off because I was losing everything. What the hell

[QUOTE=fsvr54;14993767]Clippers just cost me $60.

I'm so sick of betting, I took a few months off because I was losing everything. What the hell[/QUOTE]


Shit, you should have seen the writing on the wall at the end of the first half and cashed it...

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater;14993770]Shit, you should have seen the writing on the wall at the end of the first half and cashed it...[/QUOTE]

I don't watch games I bet on because it's infuriating

[QUOTE=fsvr54;14993778]I don't watch games I bet on because it's infuriating[/QUOTE]

You didnt even watch this? lmao bro dont let it take away from one of your pastimes and enjoyable viewing experiences. This was a hell of a game.

60$ was the stake or payout?

Surprised to see GSW as underdogs, but I prob do believe they lose game 1 and win game 2.

My 2nd bet is taking the Nuggets again for game 2 at 2.0.

Think they win more clearly this time

OKC handicap could be considered, I think they win big tonight.

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater;14994093]OKC handicap could be considered, I think they win big tonight.[/QUOTE]


Damn, didnt notice it had started.


Knew theyd smash the handicap and 1st quarter handicap.

I def expected the Nuggets to win Game 7, just didnt expect/know the odds to be so close.

So I def missed out on one.

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater;15000365]I def expected the Nuggets to win Game 7, just didnt expect/know the odds to be so close.

So I def missed out on one.[/QUOTE]

I hit on that in the 2Q when Denver went up. Should've bet spread at -3.5 but didn't think Denver would rock them that hard.

[IMG]https://i.postimg.cc/G20bzFy5/Screenshot-20250504-095059-Fan-Duel-Sportsbook.jpg[/IMG]