Is Dirk Nowitzki an Underachiever?

[QUOTE=aj1987]Come on, dude. Peak Dirk wasn't on prime LeBron's level. Prime/peak LeBron/Wade the among the best scorers and defenders in the league, while also being elite passers.

Also, it's quite difficult to quantify Wade's offense with ORtg, as he has never really played with on a good team (outside his prime and without Shaq/LeBron).


Actually, Wade was ranked 10th in respect rating and Dirk 47th.

To recap, gravity score measures how closely a player's defender sticks to him off the ball. Higher gravity scores generally belong to bigs because their primary defender must stay close and also protect the basket. On the other hand, guards typically have lower gravity scores simply because defenders have more liberty to shade off their guy on the perimeter. But elite shooters typically generate more attention off the ball.

Then there's distraction score, which quantifies how much a player's defender is willing to help off the ball to stop the ball handler. The worse he is as a shooter, the more likely his defender will be distracted by the ball handler. To identify the most effective floor-spacers in the NBA, I created a composite score that combines the two metrics. The result is what I've called "respect rating," which has now been translated to a 1-to-100 scale with 100 being the most magnetic (think sharpshooters) and 1 being least magnetic (think non-scoring bigs).

1. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors | Respect rating: 97.9
Gravity score: 97.3 | Distraction score: 98.4

2. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks | Respect rating: 96.0
Gravity score: 92.3 | Distraction score: 99.7

3. Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors | Respect rating: 94.4
Gravity score: 89.6 | Distraction score: 99.1

4. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies | Respect rating: 87.5
Gravity score: 79.3 | Distraction score: 95.7

5. Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz | Respect rating: 84.0
Gravity score: 72.1 | Distraction score: 95.9

6. James Harden, Houston Rockets | Respect rating: 83.3
Gravity score: 67.2 | Distraction score: 99.3

7. J.R. Smith, New York Knicks | Respect rating: 83.0
Gravity score: 89.0 | Distraction score: 76.9

8. Jamal Crawford, Los Angeles Clippers | Respect rating: 81.6
Gravity score: 67.9 | Distraction score: 95.2

9. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs | Respect rating: 81.4
Gravity score: 65.4 | Distraction score: 97.3

10. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat | Respect rating: 79.7
Gravity score: 82.2 | Distraction score: 77.1

Once again, Wade is the interesting outlier to the idea that it's typically 3pt shooters dominating this list, because he's such a crafty and opportunistic off-ball slasher and defenses key in on him even more with LeBron gone. JR Smith might be small-sample-size noise (he's barely above the 500 minute cut-off and ranked 118th last year).

Curry, Korver, and Klay are just in a class of their own in Gravity score (aside from JR's probably fluke-ish score), with Curry being even significantly higher than the other two. But Curry's only 4th in "Distraction" score; no one touches Korver there and so far it's actually Harden whom defenses have been second least likely to help off of.

He theorizes that the max contracts may have something to do with Klay's (only up 5 spots but definitely on another tier now) and Hayward's (24th to 5th) leaps up the rankings, though I disagree because we know Klay's taken his game to another level and Hayward's been much better from downtown. Plus, I don't know where he ranked before but Chandler Parsons is waaaaay down the list (see below). He also notes drop-offs from Chris Paul and JJ Redick from the top 20 last year to outside of the top 50 in Gravity (possibly due to a big increase in long 2s from Griffin)

Notables: Kobe Bryant (13th); Derrick Rose (14th); Carmelo Anthony (31st); Russell Westbrook (39th); Chris Paul (45th); Dirk Nowitzki (47th); LaMarcus Aldridge (72nd); LeBron James (73rd); Tony Parker (77th); Chris Bosh (86th); Kyrie Irving (97th); Lance Stephenson (99th); Anthony Davis (114th); Monta Ellis (168th); Kevin Love (177th); Rajon Rondo (182nd); Tony Allen (188th); Chandler Parsons (211st); Elfrid Payton (223rd).

Heck, Wade was getting doubled and tripled a hella lot even in the PO's last season. A completely out of his prime Wade.


If you picked them in a vacuum and were told to build teams around them to win a ring, it'd be easier to build around Malone. Malone is an elite scorer, rebounder, defender, and is actually quite a capable passer as well. He's a more well rounded player than Dirk.[/QUOTE]

well I said Dirk wasn't on peak Lebron's level to kind of agree with you about Dirk's supporting cast not being shit.

I agree, it is hard to judge Wade off offensive rating since he's had shit teams but Kobe leading the Lakers to 8th in 06 and Tmac leading the Magic to 10th in 03 are things to keep in mind since most people find those supporting casts comparable.

Seeing how Curry, Korver, and Klay are at the top, these scores are most likely from the past 2 years. I'm far more interested in seeing what Dirk and Wade's gravity scores were in their primes(doubt they exist). Author also mentioned how Wade gets more respect with lebron gone so ofc there's context that needs to be taken into account.

Can't really argue with your logic for Malone but I was asking more, who would you take as just an offensive player.

[QUOTE=kuniva_dAMiGhTy]Underachiever? Historically?

Nah.

A few of his teams have underachieved though. Don't see how anybody rational can dispute that.[/QUOTE]


yup i agree with this

[QUOTE=NBAGOAT]well I said Dirk wasn't on peak Lebron's level to kind of agree with you about Dirk's supporting cast not being shit.

I agree, it is hard to judge Wade off offensive rating since he's had shit teams but Kobe leading the Lakers to 8th in 06 and Tmac leading the Magic to 10th in 03 are things to keep in mind since most people find those supporting casts comparable. [/quote]
Sure, as I said, "advanced" metrics are not particularly kind towards Wade (except PER). Also, LO on the '06 Lakers was better than any player than Wade had. The TEAMS had better ORtg, but when you look at the players' ORtg:

Wade in '09 & '10 - 114
McGrady in '03 - 116
Kobe in '06 - 114

None of them have particularly good ORtg's. Never topped 120 in their careers either.

[QUOTE=NBAGOAT]Seeing how Curry, Korver, and Klay are at the top, these scores are most likely from the past 2 years. I'm far more interested in seeing what Dirk and Wade's gravity scores were in their primes(doubt they exist). Author also mentioned how Wade gets more respect with lebron gone so ofc there's context that needs to be taken into account.[/quote]
That list is from '14. Wade was past him prime as well and was limited. Dude also made 9 3's the entire season. Dirk topped that within the first 5 games of the season and went on to average 22 on 60% TS. Even then, Wade was garnering more defensive attention than Dirk.

Yeah, I do agree with you though. I wish there was this for all seasons, dating back to '00.

[QUOTE=NBAGOAT]Can't really argue with your logic for Malone but I was asking more, who would you take as just an offensive player.[/QUOTE]
Over Dirk and in today's game? It's really close but probably not. Dirk would be more valuable with his 3pt shot, IMO. In the '90's? Malone in a heartbeat. Of course, this is ignoring their defense, rebounding, and passing.

Maybe he is.....

I'll just leave this here.... a 38 year old Dirk getting ready for the season.

[url]https://twitter.com/tim_cato/status/790966235991113728[/url]

[QUOTE=Locked_Up_Tonight]Maybe he is.....

I'll just leave this here.... a 38 year old Dirk getting ready for the season.

[url]https://twitter.com/tim_cato/status/790966235991113728[/url][/QUOTE]
Well, he is arguably the GOAT midrange shooter. Dude has something like a 47% career average from midrange, peaking at 53%. :eek: :eek: