ESPN Insider Request:JOHN HOLLINGER'S Player Ratings

Found his description. He describes it better than I did (obviously, he made the damn system):

[quote]By this point some of you are probably wondering how I created the projections.

It's not, as some suspect, by pulling numbers out of the air. Nor was my secret yet pervasive bias against your favorite team a factor, much as commenters like to feel otherwise.

I base the projections on a tool called similarity scores.

For each player, I use as a comparison the players from the past 20 years who are the most similar, based on age, height and stats over the past three seasons. Some players will have more comparables than others, depending on how unusual they are -- guys with freak heights (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Nate Robinson), freak ages (Shaquille O'Neal) or freak stats (Andrei Kirilenko) will have relatively few, while a more generic player like Al Harrington or Devin Brown could have over a hundred.

From that point, I see what their most similar players did a year later, and project those changes onto the stats of the player being studied. So, for example, the reason that Andrew Bynum's PER is projected to rise sharply this year is because the most similar players also saw their PERs increase sharply at the same age; similarly, Jason Terry is expected to tank because a number of similar players hit the wall at his age.

Of course, any number of other factors can be relevant to a player's performance -- how hard he trains, for instance, and injuries, coaching, and so on. But consider these numbers a median estimate for what the player might be likely to do this coming season, other things being equal. And then, if other things aren't equal, apply your own logic from there.
[/quote] From [url]http://espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=3055049[/url]

[QUOTE][B]Watching Blair makes me want to have my ACLs removed.[/B] He is just spectacular on the offensive glass, pulling down 16.0 percent of his team's missed shots for the second-best rate in the league (see chart). And while he has no jump shot whatsoever, he was so active off the ball that he averaged 17.1 points per 40 minutes -- one of the better rates at his position.
[/QUOTE]

That made me laugh. :P

[QUOTE=ZenMaster]So which part of his analysis don't you agree with?[/QUOTE]
DANNY GRANGER-25.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min

KOBE BRYANT-26.3 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.8 ast per 40 min

ANTHONY RANDOLPH-23.6 pts, 11.9 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min

AMARE STOUDEMIRE-24.2 pts, 9.6 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min

[QUOTE=Willkill24]DANNY GRANGER-25.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min

KOBE BRYANT-26.3 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.8 ast per 40 min

ANTHONY RANDOLPH-23.6 pts, 11.9 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min

AMARE STOUDEMIRE-24.2 pts, 9.6 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min[/QUOTE]
What don't you agree with? Those per 40 minute stats are too high? Too low? What?

[QUOTE=Droid101]What don't you agree with? Those per 40 minute stats are too high? Too low? What?[/QUOTE]
So Granger is spoused to be almost as good as Kobe and Randolph better than Amare.:confusedshrug:

[QUOTE=Willkill24]So Granger is spoused to be almost as good as Kobe and Randolph better than Amare.:confusedshrug:[/QUOTE]
Randolph never got playing time under Nelly, so he averaged like 10 points in 17 minutes or something around that. That's why his per 40 are so high. and that's actually how good Granger is. It's just no one outside Indy sees that. Granted there's a difference between the two but those are his real numbers.

[QUOTE=Rose]
[B][U]MICHAEL BEASLEY, PF
Projection: 22.9 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.9 ast per 40 min; 18.75 PER | Player card

Yeah Rose can you do Memphis

thanks dude i gonna[COLOR="Green"] repp[/COLOR] u now

[QUOTE=OnceInADECADE]Yeah Rose can you do Memphis

thanks dude i gonna[COLOR="Green"] repp[/COLOR] u now[/QUOTE]


maybad bro i cant
[QUOTE]You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Rose again.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=OnceInADECADE]Yeah Rose can you do Memphis

thanks dude i gonna[COLOR="Green"] repp[/COLOR] u now[/QUOTE]
One second.

MIKE CONLEY, PG
Projection: 16.4 pts, 3.0 reb, 5.8 ast per 40 min; 15.15 PER | Player card

XAVIER HENRY, SG
Player card

Who's your Haddadi! One of my fav. players in the league. He can rebound the shit out of the ball.

thanks bro i[COLOR="Green"] repp [/COLOR]u when i can

[QUOTE=Willkill24]So Granger is spoused to be almost as good as Kobe and Randolph better than Amare.:confusedshrug:[/QUOTE]
Well, why not compare their 09-10 seasons?

Kobe, per 40 minutes: P 27.8 R 5.5 A 5.1
Danny G, per 40 minutes: P 26.3 R 6.0 A 3.0

Looks like his program projects Kobe will decrease (since he's so old) and Granger will increase (since he's about to enter his prime). Plus Granger plays a lot at the 3, Kobe plays at the 2 (hence the rebounding differential). doesn't look too far off, to me (of course his numbers always hit Kobe harder because he's old).

As for the other two:

Randolph, per 40 minutes: P 20.5 R 11.5 A 2.2
Amare, per 40 minutes: P 26.7 R 10.3 A 1.2

Same story looks to me. His program projected a slight increase per 40 minutes for Randolph (he's so young) and a slight decrease for Amare (he's older). I doubt Randolph will play anywhere near 40 minutes, but I don't think the per 40 minute projection is way off for him. I expect Amare to score a bit more than that, but that's about it.

They don't seem that far fetched to me.

[QUOTE=OnceInADECADE]thanks bro i[COLOR="Green"] repp [/COLOR]u when i can[/QUOTE]
Covered, I repped him for you.

[QUOTE=Droid101]Covered, I repped him for you.[/QUOTE]
Unfortunately your rep is grey. But I appreciate the thought. I shall give your rep power within the next 24 hours!:cheers:

[QUOTE=Rose]Unfortunately your rep is grey. But I appreciate the thought. I shall give your rep power within the next 24 hours!:cheers:[/QUOTE]
Sonofabitch. I thought you only needed green to give green. I guess you need 10 points to give green (which, thanks to you, I now have!). :cheers:

[QUOTE=Droid101]Well, why not compare their 09-10 seasons?

Kobe, per 40 minutes: P 27.8 R 5.5 A 5.1
Danny G, per 40 minutes: P 26.3 R 6.0 A 3.0

Looks like his program projects Kobe will decrease (since he's so old) and Granger will increase (since he's about to enter his prime). Plus Granger plays a lot at the 3, Kobe plays at the 2 (hence the rebounding differential). doesn't look too far off, to me (of course his numbers always hit Kobe harder because he's old).

As for the other two:

Randolph, per 40 minutes: P 20.5 R 11.5 A 2.2
Amare, per 40 minutes: P 26.7 R 10.3 A 1.2

Same story looks to me. His program projected a slight increase per 40 minutes for Randolph (he's so young) and a slight decrease for Amare (he's older). I doubt Randolph will play anywhere near 40 minutes, but I don't think the per 40 minute projection is way off for him. I expect Amare to score a bit more than that, but that's about it.

They don't seem that far fetched to me.[/QUOTE]
Well if he's saying Kobe and Amere will decline, then i guess it's fine. Although he will probably be wrong about Kobe.:D

[QUOTE=Droid101]Sonofabitch. I thought you only needed green to give green. I guess you need 10 points to give green (which, thanks to you, I now have!). :cheers:[/QUOTE]
:cheers: I thought for awhile you did too. But then another guy I know on here couldn't give any rep, and then I figured out the problem.

[QUOTE=Droid101]Covered, I repped him for you.[/QUOTE]


thanks dude

Sam Young gets so many turnovers and is a poor dribbler because he is a tweener forward in the mould of Jamieson, but he is playing guard.

[QUOTE=G-train]Sam Young gets so many turnovers and is a poor dribbler because he is a tweener forward in the mould of Jamieson, but he is playing guard.[/QUOTE]
I agree with you.

It'd be great if u could post the Mavs' ratings, too! :rockon:

[QUOTE=creepingdeath]It'd be great if u could post the Mavs' ratings, too! :rockon:[/QUOTE]
Ask and you shall receive !

JASON KIDD, PG
Projection: 9.6 pts, 6.5 reb, 9.0 ast per 40 min; 13.16 PER | Player card

TYSON CHANDLER, C
Projection: 12.1 pts, 11.3 reb, 0.6 ast per 40 min; 13.35 PER | Player card

can anyone post it for atlanta or sactown?

40 odd rep points for the pistons please!

God dang, Kidd gets 10-10 basically, and only gets a 14 per? Hollinger's system really hates point guards.

ATL, sactown and Deeeeetroit coming on up

[QUOTE=magnax1]God dang, Kidd gets 10-10 basically, and only gets a 14 per? Hollinger's system really hates inefficient scorers.[/QUOTE]

FIFY. the reason his PER is so low is due to the fact his TS% has always been sub 50 which is essentially garbage.

JEFF TEAGUE, PG
Projection: 13.7 pts, 3.6 reb, 7.0 ast per 40 min; 12.16 PER | Player card

JAMAL CRAWFORD, G
Projection: 20.5 pts, 3.1 reb, 3.8 ast per 40 min; 16.02 PER | Player card

BENO UDRIH, PG
Projection: 15.9 pts, 3.6 reb, 5.8 ast per 40 min; 14.69 PER | Player card

DONTE GREENE, SF
Projection: 6.7 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.8 ast per 40 min; 11.84 PER | Player card

RODNEY STUCKEY, PG
Projection: 19.1 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.5 ast per 40 min; 15.73 PER | Player card

WILL BYNUM, PG
Projection: 15.3 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.5 ast per 40 min; 13.65 PER | Player card

Hollinger thinks Billups will average 22ppg?

[QUOTE=Copperhead]Hollinger thinks Billups will average 22ppg?[/QUOTE]
If he plays 40 minutes a game...yes.