Now that Harris has done interviews, Trump appears to be the favorite at the moment

[QUOTE=ZenMaster;14949497]It's most definitely opinion.[/QUOTE]
No it isn't, you're ****ing delusional. No President ever has truly given power to the working class.

[QUOTE=Bill Gates;14949168][url]https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx924r4d5yno[/url]

Here are her positions on all of the top issues. You should consider reading them instead of pretending they don't exist.[/QUOTE]


A BBC Article? :D


Didnt she at first copy Bidens policies onto her Website?


Intentional ineptitude, and you go along lol.

This is pretty bad, polymarket currently has it at 62/38 in favor of Trump.

Most betting sites have him at 60/40 as well.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950271]This is pretty bad, polymarket currently has it at 62/38 in favor of Trump.

Most betting sites have him at 60/40 as well.[/QUOTE]

[url]https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qt4vTGjj4mwAMwDsr/the-mysterious-trump-buyers-on-polymarket[/url]

It was shifted to that by just 4 people.

If you want accurate odds look at Nate Silver

[QUOTE=Bill Gates;14950274][url]https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qt4vTGjj4mwAMwDsr/the-mysterious-trump-buyers-on-polymarket[/url]

It was shifted to that by just 4 people.

If you want accurate odds look at Nate Silver[/QUOTE]


[url]https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president[/url]

Every betting site has it at 60/40 in favor of Trump.

New polls in Pennsylvania has Trump winning that state by +3.

But it's hilarious seeing Trump haters coping in this thread.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950275][url]https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president[/url]

Every betting site has it at 60/40 in favor of Trump.

New polls in Pennsylvania has Trump winning that state by +3.

But it's hilarious seeing Trump haters coping in this thread.[/QUOTE]

Nate Silver has Trump in the lead too. I'm just saying that those gambling odds are 100% based on who is voting for what and that is it. Those odds aren't based on anything real. Nate Silver is a stat expert who knows which polls to take seriously and which to ignore. Creating more realistic odds.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950275]

New polls in Pennsylvania has Trump winning that state by +3.
[/QUOTE]
[url]https://x.com/VoteHubUS/status/1847360005416071510[/url]

Here are the actual early vote numbers for Pennsylvania BTW.

[QUOTE=Bill Gates;14950280][url]https://x.com/VoteHubUS/status/1847360005416071510[/url]

Here are the actual early vote numbers for Pennsylvania BTW.[/QUOTE]

Democrats tend to vote earlier than Republicans, this is nothing new.

I remember a big Hillary supporter back in 2016 making threads how she is crushing Trump in early voting, how did that turn out?

And Nate Silver gave Hillary like a 70% chance of winning in 2016.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950283]Democrats tend to vote earlier than Republicans, this is nothing new.

I remember a big Hillary supporter back in 2016 making threads how she is crushing Trump in early voting, how did that turn out?

[b]And Nate Silver gave Hillary like a 70% chance of winning in 2016[/b].[/QUOTE]
[I]Cause he's an expert who knows which polls to take seriously.[/I]

[QUOTE=Hey Yo;14950285][I]Cause he's an expert who knows which polls to take serious[/I][/QUOTE]

He currently has Trump leading.

But that was when he was with 538, he has since gutted a lot of the polls he used then seeing that they are flawed.

[QUOTE=Hey Yo;14950285][I]Cause he's an expert who knows which polls to take seriously.[/I][/QUOTE]

:roll:

[QUOTE=rmt;14949181]Just like the jobs numbers being revised downward, FBI revises crime numbers UPWARD (a [B]6.6% swing[/B]) but not a word about it - smh.

[url]https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2024/10/16/stealth_edit_fbi_quietly_revises_violent_crime_stats_1065396.html[/url]

When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate [B]fell by 2.1%[/B]. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.

But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime [B]increased in 2022 by 4.5%[/B]. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.

The Bureau – which has been at the center of partisan storms – made no mention of these revisions in its September 2024 press release.[/QUOTE]

This should have had it's own post. The amount of times people like OTC and bladed has pointed out that crime going up is a fake republican talking point or Russian disinformation, it's sad stuff.

In the end, betting markets and polls tell you so much, the betting sites 1987_Lakers loves to quote were way off in 2016 and two years ago. Having said that, Trump is in the best position he's ever been two weeks from the election which should be very worrisome to Democrats he SHOULD be considered the favorite as I have said here many times before but Harris has a historical lead for Democrats with women, mid teens lead and there are more women than men voters...

I still say high turnout favor the Democrats...if the turnout ain't there, Trump got this.

Whomever wins doesn't matter, but suck a bag of *****.

[QUOTE=Off the Court;14947507]Okay but, my entire point was that having a 51/49 Vegas odds edge means little to nothing. I mean you clearly have your hopes up as though that 1 percentage point means Trump will win, but the reality is that the gamblers are saying this is a virtual coin flip.

[B]If the odds were shifting 75/25 or even 60/40 then okay, that is a clear lead. But these two have been teetering over tiny amounts.[/B]

Also the major pollsters claim to have adjusted their systems to fit the mishaps of 2020 and 2016. I don't trust that is actually the case, but FWIW that is what they are claiming.[/QUOTE]

65/35 today on polymarket, 60/40 on most regular betting sites.

[QUOTE=TheMan;14950426]In the end, betting markets and polls tell you so much, the betting sites 1987_Lakers loves to quote were way off in 2016 and two years ago. Having said that, Trump is in the best position he's ever been two weeks from the election which should be very worrisome to Democrats he SHOULD be considered the favorite as I have said here many times before but Harris has a historical lead for Democrats with women, mid teens lead and there are more women than men voters...

I still say high turnout favor the Democrats...if the turnout ain't there, Trump got this.

Whomever wins doesn't matter, but suck a bag of *****.[/QUOTE]

Looks like you are slowly completing the 7 stages of grief.

[QUOTE=Off the Court;14947316]Harris is still the favorite to win :confusedshrug:

[url]https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president[/url]

Honestly though being 51/49 favorite for either of these candidates doesn't mean much, that is still a virtual coin flip. Both have a clear chance at winning.[/QUOTE]

This link now has it at +21 for Trump. Ouch

[IMG]https://media.patriots.win/post/EVRGxfbNWxaE.png[/IMG]

If the polls are correct, I honestly can't remember a presidential candidate losing so much ground in the final month before the election.

October has been disastrous for Kamala.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950443]If the polls are correct, I honestly can't remember a presidential candidate losing so much ground in the final month before the election.

October has been disastrous for Kamala.[/QUOTE]

Are you kidding? She's ahead in the polls and only lost tiny percentages.
[url]https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/[/url]

They've been neck and neck this entire time. A coin flip.


Or did you mean to say betting odds?

538

:roll:

Kamala is about to get demolished. There is no way she is winning.

[url]https://adfontesmedia.com/fivethirtyeight-bias-and-reliability/[/url]

[I]"Ad Fontes Media rates FiveThirtyEight in the Skews Left category of bias"[/I]

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950453]538

:roll:[/QUOTE]

You said "If the polls are correct, I honestly can't remember a presidential candidate losing so much ground in the final month before the election."

538 is all of "the polls".


what polls where you talking about that are the biggest drop you can remember?

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950431]Looks like you are slowly completing the 7 stages of grief.[/QUOTE]

Nah, I have no dog in this race, I'm just giving my opinion on the state of the race, you on the other hand will be suicidal if your boy winds up losing, which is still quite the possibility.

Gonna suck to be you if the Don loses.

[QUOTE=Patrick Chewing;14950456]Kamala is about to get demolished. There is no way she is winning.[/QUOTE]

The same guy who said there was gonna be a Red Wave in '22.

Just mailed my ballot in today.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950453]538

:roll:[/QUOTE]
Selling them what they want to hear when they’re down in the dumps… not the worst business model for such a time/situation.

[QUOTE=Patrick Chewing;14950456]Kamala is about to get demolished. There is no way she is winning.[/QUOTE]

In an “all counts finish at midnight per time zone.” Election, Trump could easily see 320 electoral votes. As it stands, with plentiful “new rules” and plenty of bending rules in swing states, he probably won’t see 300, but will def get over 280

[QUOTE=TheMan;14950502]Nah, I have no dog in this race[/QUOTE]

Keep telling yourself that.

[QUOTE=bladefd;14950624]Just mailed my ballots in today.[/QUOTE]

Cheating SOB :mad:

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950640]Keep telling yourself that.[/QUOTE]

TheMan is so full of shit. Homeboy has been so far up Kamala’s ass while dissing Trump this whole time. I’m coming for his ass first on election night.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950640]Keep telling yourself that.[/QUOTE]

Keep believing that. I'm not creating thread after thread trashing Trump, I think he's ass, but I also think Harris is ass...it just so happens that IMO Trump is actually worse.

[QUOTE=Patrick Chewing;14950659]TheMan is so full of shit. Homeboy has been so far up Kamala’s ass while dissing Trump this whole time. I’m coming for his ass first on election night.[/QUOTE]

Both Trump and Harris are awful, name one thread/post where I say she's my candidate. I thought Biden was awful too but I predicted he'd beat Trump in 2020...I dare you to find ONE post during the last 4 years of me defending Biden.

Sanders would be curbstomping your chump rn. It's gonna be hilarious if awful Camel Toe beats Trump though :roll:

[QUOTE=TheMan;14950713]Both Trump and Harris are awful, name one thread/post where I say she's my candidate. I thought Biden was awful too but I predicted he'd beat Trump in 2020...I dare you to find ONE post during the last 4 years of me defending Biden.

Sanders would be curbstomping your chump rn. It's gonna be hilarious if awful Camel Toe beats Trump though :roll:[/QUOTE]

This thread title disturbed you so much that you immediately made this thread to take the spotlight off of it.

[url]http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?518968-2024-US-Elections-thread[/url]

"Anyways, post polls, opinions, takes, predictions"

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950723]This thread title disturbed you so much that you immediately made this thread to take the spotlight off of it.

[url]http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?518968-2024-US-Elections-thread[/url]

"Anyways, post polls, opinions, takes, predictions"[/QUOTE]

I made that thread because we always have a general election thread, I know it's your first time voting but it's kind of a thing here...and I purposely made it exactly one month out. You make anti Harris threads almost daily, you have KDS, seek help. OTOH I trash Trump for the idiot he is but not everyday and I certainly ain't making anti Trump threads.

[QUOTE=bladefd;14950624]Just mailed my ballot in today.[/QUOTE]
Who'd you vote for?

[QUOTE=SouBeachTalents;14950754]Who'd you vote for?[/QUOTE]

Definitely not Jill Stein :oldlol:

[QUOTE=TheMan;14950753]I made that thread because we always have a general election thread, I know it's your first time voting but it's kind of a thing here...and I purposely made it exactly one month out. You make anti Harris threads almost daily, you have KDS, seek help. OTOH I trash Trump for the idiot he is but not everyday and I certainly ain't making anti Trump threads.[/QUOTE]

How mad are you that this turned out to be the election thread instead of your thread?

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950640]Keep telling yourself that.[/QUOTE]

Video of TheMan not supporting Kamala [URL="https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1849054388137972032"]https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1849054388137972032[/URL]

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14950780]How mad are you that this turned out to be the election thread instead of your thread?[/QUOTE]

This isn't the general election thread, it will be when we get to it :cheers: Again, we know this is your first time voting, never seen you post before in prior GE threads but since you have your head so far up Trump's ass, you aren't seeing nor thinking clearly.