ESPN Insider Request:JOHN HOLLINGER'S Player Ratings

[QUOTE=niko]What i don't get is some players improvement he sites as abberations, while others it will continue. He never cites why he feels this way. On the Knicks, Felton's shooting improvement is an abberation and Walker's is true growth.[/QUOTE]
I think it would mainly have to do with age/experience in the league. Walker's at the point in his career where natural improvement in numbers is accepted, if not expected. Whereas Felton has passed the point where you'll considerable improvement due to age and standing in the league, therefore if the numbers show an improvement in his numbers, it's likely to assume that it's an aberration of an uptick rather than continued progress (think Luke Ridnour last season). I'm not saying that it's necessarily right, but that's the line of thinking anyway.

A few other points:

Hollinger's model is regression based, so most of the projections are going to to skew towards the middle (which works both ways, high and low). The model doesn't really predict Lebron to continue at his insane pace that he had the last two seasons (although the model had his PER lower last season than it did this year). It's the same way with the team projections, if it seems a little low, think of it as the model hedging its bets (as in it's easier to think moderate than it is to go real high or real low).

Also, he uses per40 numbers for two reasons. 1. it's easier for comparison. If everyone is at the same level, it's easier to see where they differ. Obviously he expects his readers to be smart about the process and realize that someone like Mozgov isn't going to average anywhere close to 40 minutes a game and adjust accordingly (although that might be asking too much). If you read what he's writing, he's fully aware and points out the flaws that will keep them from being significant contributors in minutes. 2. it's extremely difficult to predict what a player is going to average in terms of minutes from season to season. There are several factors that change even during the season that will throw off a players minutes (how good a team is, injuries, etc...). So rather than try and figure out what their minutes might be (which really isn't the point he's trying to work with), it's just easier to put them all on a level playing field and then go into depth about what might/will hold them back.

DERRICK ROSE, PG
Projection: 23.5 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.6 ast per 40 min; 19.42 PER | Player card

JAMES JOHNSON, SF
Projection: 13.6 pts, 6.6 reb, 2.7 ast per 40 min; 11.36 PER | Player card

Someone wanna post Indy so I can add Hollinger to the list of national writers that knows jack shit about the team?

[QUOTE=InspiredLebowski]Someone wanna post Indy so I can add Hollinger to the list of national writers that knows jack shit about the team?[/QUOTE]
Lol Indy's is coming right up

STARTERS
DARREN COLLISON, PG
Projection: 18.7 pts, 3.4 reb, 7.9 ast per 40 min; 16.88 PER | Player card

T.J. FORD, PG
Projection: 17.0 pts, 4.7 reb, 6.3 ast per 40 min; 14.08 PER | Player card

[QUOTE=evilmonkey]You are right but like i said again... you have to understand that he never had these kindof caliber of teammates before, he will pass much more and will be more of a "point-forward" and his teammates will finish of his passes more.

Magic Johnson for example averaged MUCH less possessions than Lebron, Nash, Deron and so on average much less ball dominating possessions aswell... but they still averaged more assists? Why? Because they passed more...

Heat will have MUCH more faster pace than Lebrons former team aswell, which will also create more possessions....

Spoelstra said numerous times Lebron/Wade will be used as main ballhandlers most of the time... and we all know how ball dominant Lebron is... and im sure Wade wouldnt mind it considering he will get much more scoring oppurtunities for him and considering he can concentrate more on scoring.[/QUOTE]

But you also have to understand that he will not have the ball as much in his hands as earlier.

Yes they're going to create a lot in the open court but Lebron is the best finisher in the league on the fast break so he should be looking for a lot of his points there.

Wade is one of the best pickn'roll players in the game, he will run A LOT of those next year as well. Wade's assist numbers should also go up because of better teammates.

I just don't see Lebron's assist number sky rocket, it's already very high.

He should be able to shoot a higher % though.

Overall the strength of the team doesn't have much to do with Lebron's assist number, the strength of Miami will be that they have 2 elite players and that each one can attack and create for the others at any given point. There's no need to say that one guy should be doing this and one guy should be doing that when they both can do it all.

Every year Hollinger says Kobe is going to have a big decline. I happen to agree this year, but it's just funny that it never happens.

[QUOTE=magnax1]Every year Hollinger says Kobe is going to have a big decline. I happen to agree this year, but it's just funny that it never happens.[/QUOTE]
I think having Pau and Bynum helps hide his aging on offense. and Artest covers his defensive slowness now. Personally I think his drop comes next year.

[QUOTE=Rose]I think having Pau and Bynum helps hide his aging on offense. and Artest covers his defensive slowness now. Personally I think his drop comes next year.[/QUOTE]
Well, I think he's improved enough in almost every facet the past three years to make his pretty huge decline in athleticism negligible. Really, he was having his best year last year before the injuries, but now that he's gotten arthritis real bad, and is on like his 3rd knee surgery in 5 years or so, he'll probably decline.

[QUOTE=magnax1]Well, I think he's improved enough in almost every facet the past three years to make his pretty huge decline in athleticism negligible. Really, he was having his best year last year before the injuries, but now that he's gotten arthritis real bad, and is on like his 3rd knee surgery in 5 years or so, he'll probably decline.[/QUOTE]
Yeah I agree offensively he's completely changed his game like Michael did. but I think if Pau wasn't there he'd still try chucking his way to the Finals. Yeah but the arthritis is in the finger though, it never stopped Magic, or a host of other players with bad fingers from doing good. The knee is what concerns me, but I think it's got another run in it just because of the Heat, and he knows adding a Finals victory over them adds to his legacy.

Wizards?

Brandon Jennings:

Projection: 19.9 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.9 ast per 40 min; 14.36 PER

Drew Gooden

Projection: 16.3 pts, 11.8 reb, 1.1 ast per 40 min; 15.82 PER

• Bouncy power forward who goes to glass and can finish around basket.
• Underrated midrange shooter despite unusual release. Limited post game.
• Nimble defender with good size, but tends to lose focus and make poor decisions.

For the first time in his career last season, Gooden played the majority of his minutes at center, and he's bulked up enough to hold his own on that spot. In fact, he nearly set a career high in rebound rate and finished seventh in the NBA in offensive rebound rate.

Gooden also has made tremendous progress as a shooter, with his 86.1 percent mark from the free throw line ranking first among centers. It was his second straight season in the mid-80s from the stripe, and he knocked down 45.2 percent of his long-distance 2s as well.

Choosing his spots better might be part of the reason. Gooden switched from taking 39 percent of his shots in the basket area in 2008-09 to 62.8 percent last season; the only reason his field goal percentage didn't increase more is because he shot dreadfully on "in-between" shots. Normally a solid shooter from this range, he made only 31.1 percent.

Gooden probably will drift back toward the perimeter in Milwaukee, where he figures to play more at power forward than at center, but at either position he's one of the league's more underrated players right now.


Andrew Bogut:

Projection: 19.4 pts, 12.2 reb, 2.7 ast per 40 min; 20.60 PER

• Elite help defender who takes bushels of charges and is a shot-blocking force.
• Effective right-block post weapon who likes to shoot lefty jump hooks in the lane.
• Outstanding rebounder, but a poor shooter with average speed and quickness.

Bogut enjoyed a breakout season in 2009-10, and in retrospect it's a minor travesty he didn't make the All-Star team. He's always been able to rebound, but he showcased big improvements in his scoring and defense in his fifth pro season. Bogut markedly cut his turnovers and became increasingly comfortable shooting short hooks around the basket, often after facing up from the midpost. He bumped his 40-minute scoring average by nearly five points and sharply cut his turnover rate at the same time.

Defensively, he's always been a fantastic rebounder and taken charges by the boatload. What changed last season were his shot-blocking numbers. Never renowned for his vertical, Bogut nonetheless swatted 2.54 shots per game, good for second in the league. On a per-minute basis, he blocked shots more than twice as often as he had the previous season.

Amazingly, he also ranked fourth in the league in charges drawn per game -- it's mind-boggling that a big man could go up in the air for so many blocks and still stay on the ground for so many charges. If he keeps up those numbers, his regrettable omissions from the All-Defense and All-Star teams won't continue for long.

First, however, he must overcome that horrific elbow injury he suffered in April. Bogut rarely shoots from outside, so a full recovery is less essential in that respect, but he might not be in peak basketball shape at the outset of the season.