Explain to me why Rose didn't deserve the 2011 MVP

[quote=DMAVS41]Kblaze...

Are you arguing that Rose deserved MVP...or that he was the best player? Or both?[/quote]

You have never heard me say Rose was the best anything. Im not even 100% sure I ever said hes the best pointguard. And I dont believe I ever said he was my MVP either. I know in the post I quoted from 2011 seems I had Dwight picked.

I didnt care then and I dont care now. But when I watch a team go from as good as anyone...to being the Hawks...I wont pretend I cant see why when its best player is missing and its celebrated defense and coach are still there.

[QUOTE=DMAVS41]Added wins like that makes a great case for MVP...a case that I have always agreed with.

However, that doesn't make a good case for best player.

I'm trying to find out if he thought Rose was the best player in 11...that is why I asked it.[/QUOTE]
Well in the 2011 regular season, it was Lebron who went like 08 or something on game winning shots and was clanking them everywhere to lose games, and Rose was the one who was fantastic in the clutch that year and led his team single handedly to wins in a bunch of fourth quarters.

Playoffs it went into reverse... but in the regular season, sure Lebron is the better player in and of itself, but he did not [I]play[/I] better. Like a superstar having a bad game and a worse allstar outperforming him.

[QUOTE=tpols]Well in the 2011 regular season, it was Lebron who went like 08 or something on game winning shots and was clanking them everywhere to lose games, and Rose was the one who was fantastic in the clutch that year and led his team single handedly to wins in a bunch of fourth quarters.

Playoffs it went into reverse... but in the regular season, sure Lebron is the better player in and of itself, but he did not [I]play[/I] better. Like a superstar having a bad game and a worse allstar outperforming him.[/QUOTE]

I wouldn't say Lebron was the best player in the 11 regular season though.

It was clearly Dirk and Howard in my opinion.

[QUOTE=Kblaze8855]You have never heard me say Rose was the best anything. Im not even 100% sure I ever said hes the best pointguard. And I dont believe I ever said he was my MVP either. I know in the post I quoted from 2011 seems I had Dwight picked.

I didnt care then and I dont care now. But when I watch a team go from as good as anyone...to being the Hawks...I wont pretend I cant see why when its best player is missing and its celebrated defense and coach are still there.[/QUOTE]

Sure...but I think what the argument is...is that replace Rose with another offensive minded quality player and you'd get great results. I would imagine that is the argument.

Not that...just lose Rose and not replace him...that doesn't make sense.

I do think Rose was very good...but highly replaceable with other elite offensive players. I usually rank Rose somewhere around the 7th best player in the league.

[QUOTE=Kblaze8855]You mean like....virtually in every case in the history of sports?

When...has the clearly best player on a dominant team not been given credit for it because of team defense or hustle? You wanna say a teams best player shouldnt get love over good team morale and ball movement now? Its basketball. You win by playing it well together.

Did I miss the people hating on Bird because the Celtics had an elite defense?

Who is prepared to hate on Isiah Thomas for arguably the GOAT defense to that point along with 5 all stars, one of the best 6th men ever, the DPOY, and a HOF coach? Meanwhile hes shooting worse than Rose and nobody seems to care. Reasonably sure his HOF career summary does not mention it. Why would it?

A teams leader always has and always will get the credit for its success. Especially one who wins at the rate of the second threepeat Bulls on a team that is a 5th seed without him.

Amazes me how many Heat fans get in on this idiocy. Have clowns laughing over a torn acl hating on a guy for 3 years even when the rest of the world is praising him. The Pacers coach was so impressed with Rose one game he said he had Iversons speed, Kidds vision, Billups shooting, and Jordans athletic ability...just...gushing praise. He had dropped like 40. Same game Heat fans talking shit about his shooting percentage like basketball people give a shit.

Im a bulls fan. Nobody ever saw me hating on Lebron. Or Rondo. Or Westbrook. What is it that makes otherwise reasonable people act like bitches on the internet over a team rivalry? Some guy jumps on the heat bandwaggon and suddenly he has to hate Derrick Rose?

The **** is wrong with you people?

Derrick Rose is gonna be a first ballot hall of famer barring more injury and you will still be mad about a shooting percentage 20 years earlier because Lebron didnt win an MVP on a team that underachieved and had 2 other stars on it with the expectation of ruling the league.

You dont go in expected to approach 70 wins....win like 55-56....have people asking all year why you arent as good as you should be while another player on your team is playing almost exactly as well...and get MVP.

And you dont win 52 games and win MVP either.

This is what I said April 2011:




But that has not been how it works for 30 years.

I didnt care who won it then and I dont care now. Clearly I wouldnt have been mad at Dwight winning.

But there has been so much bullshit claimed about Rose since im glad he did.

He was a legit option. Lebron and the Heat just didnt win that much relative to the firepower.

Dwight ended up with what would have been the worst MVP record in a quarter century.

Rose was the key player on a team that is just ok without him.

He won MVP. Nobody with half a brain is taking points from him over team cohesiveness or getting back on defense. Nobody ever took points from anyone else over it.

And not like there was an 09 Lebron leading an ok team to 66 wins or Jordan doing 35ppg on a 50 win team.

Just guys with shaky claims who got hurt at the wrong time or didnt win that much.

Being mad for years is just sad. And sadder still...that so many are from one fanbase. Being a bulls fan all my life didnt cause me to hate on Dwight and there are people here who think I love Lebron(I dont even like him most of the time). Clearly my love of my team has not caused me to hate on them. Why must so many Heat fans show up hating on Rose calling him Brandon Jennings or a role player. Is there a shepherd somewhere leading you all around?[/QUOTE]

The identity of the team came straight from Thibs. And I would argue that Thibs has done more to change the way the game is played than any person in my lifetime. When defensive juggernauts in the NFL, MLB, etc win its the LB or Pitcher that gets the credit. Rose was not one of the best 8 defensive players on the Bulls in 2011. So why, when the team is built on defense is he given credit for that success?

You misunderstand the "hate". Its not that we can't appreciate Rose for the great season he had. Its that we recognize he isn't in the same stratosphere as the players he beat out. When you become the media darling and you aren't deserving there is going to be a long lasting backlash. People are STILL killing Steve Nash for his MVPs and that was twice as long ago. Rose is NOT Brandon Jennings (I am a Bucks fan and I would consider it an insult to call my BROTHER Brandon Jennings). But he isn't LeBron by any stretch of the imagination. To many of us this isn't Barkley winning the MVP over MJ. This feels more like Gary Payton or Kevin Johnson beating him out. Really good players but not in the elite conversation.

[QUOTE]
Sure...but I think what the argument is...is that replace Rose with another offensive minded quality player and you'd get great results. I would imagine that is the argument.

Not that...just lose Rose and not replace him...that doesn't make sense.

I do think Rose was very good...but highly replaceable with other elite offensive players. I usually rank Rose somewhere around the 7th best player in the league.
[/QUOTE]

Other elite offensive players? So you replace him with some other guy probably going to the hall of fame the team is fine?

I agree. I just dont see how thats a negative. Its like saying you could replace Wes Unseld with Dave Cowens or Bob Lanier and the Bullets would have still been great.

I dont see how thats even a knock.

Now...


Im gonna post a Rose game. Not just highlights....it has the misses too. Some turnovers. And we lost. So its not some highpoint. Take a moment when you have the time and watch this

[URL="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFWOeXBAdsM"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFWOeXBAdsM[/URL]


He shot poorly. 11-28. You will see like 5 rimmed out layups and 2 blocked layups.

He starts to force it with the threes late as he tried to get us back in it.

ends up with a bad looking statline.

Tell me. He goes....11-28.

How many bad shots did you see before desperation quick shot time?

Thats the typical hated on Derrick Rose game. Poor shooting. Lost.

Id like to know what you find wrong with what he was doing there. And if you can find a way to appreciate the basketball he was playing.

[quote]
The identity of the team came straight from Thibs. And I would argue that Thibs has done more to change the way the game is played than any person in my lifetime. When defensive juggernauts in the NFL, MLB, etc win its the LB or Pitcher that gets the credit.
[/quote]


You cant compare a sport with 10 people playing all the time to one where guys just...go sit and watch their defense. Your defense can literally stop the other team from scoring at all. And you watch them do it and can win with 1 point scored. Which is why a pitcher or disruptive defender in the NFL gets a good bit of credit.

Basketball is not a game like that. No matter what you do the other team is gonna score 70. And you need 71.


[quote]
Rose was not one of the best 8 defensive players on the Bulls in 2011. So why, when the team is built on defense is he given credit for that success?
[/quote]

So when Isiah gets credit for leading title teams as the 7th best defender on a defensive team its fine. A defensive team with the DPOY, 2 guys who led the league in rebounding, 2 all stars who are neither of those first 2 and a guy called the Microwave.

All good.

When Rose wins with less help....he shouldnt get that credit.

Or we hating on Isiah too?

[quote]You misunderstand the "hate". Its not that we can't appreciate Rose for the great season he had. Its that we recognize he isn't in the same stratosphere as the players he beat out.[/quote]

Player perhaps. One who took his otherwordly talent and had the worst season he had in years on a team with more help than hed ever had. Oscar robertson isnt Wilt or Russell. Bob Mcadoo isnt Kareem. They have down years or somehow fail to shine as bright as usual they dont get the MVP off their names.

[quote]
When you become the media darling and you aren't deserving there is going to be a long lasting backlash.
[/quote]

People really have to get off the media. Rose, Lebron, Kobe, Wade, Nash, Dirk, Paul, KG, and everyone else great is a media darling. More so when they win 60+ games in spectacular fashion.


[quote]
People are STILL killing Steve Nash for his MVPs and that was twice as long ago. Rose is NOT Brandon Jennings (I am a Bucks fan and I would consider it an insult to call my BROTHER Brandon Jennings). But he isn't LeBron by any stretch of the imagination. To many of us this isn't Barkley winning the MVP over MJ. This feels more like Gary Payton or Kevin Johnson beating him out. Really good players but not in the elite conversation.
[/quote]

If Michael Jordan joined Drexler and Brad Daugherty and won less than he did on the Bulls while Hakeem got hurt late in the season and faltered, Barkley won 52 games, and KJ won 62 as the best player on his team by a mile....he might have.

Wouldnt be his fault they didnt do as well as usual.

Lebron took more talent to less wins.

If hes better it didnt reflect in on the court performance.

Which is why he didnt win.

Being better isnt really the issue.

When Nash won there were head scratchers all around.

Nash gets it for a turnaround while shaq turns another team around. Dirk doesnt win...when he takes less talent than Nash had to what...59 wins? Improving his team...which Nash just left.

06?

Less.

2011 it was clear Rose would win. It isnt media love either. People act like the media screws someone and awards an MVP out of love yearly. Idiots claim it about Lebron.

Lebron won when he won because he won a hell of a lot of games and wasnt a letdown. Not media love.

Rose won because he won a hell of a lot of games and nobody saw it coming. Not media love.

Players, coaches, or fans would have voted Lebron as the winner of all 4 of his and Rose in 2011 too.

It was just...a usual MVP decision. And not a very hard one. 113 out of 121?

I dont think history will be that mad.

No 69 win Jordan getting snubbed here.

Lebron or Dwight wins it its one of the weakest MVPs in history anyway.

[QUOTE=HurricaneKid]
But he isn't LeBron by any stretch of the imagination. To many of us this isn't Barkley winning the MVP over MJ. [B]This feels more like Gary Payton beating him out. [/B] Really good players but not in the elite conversation.[/QUOTE]
Well thats exactly what happened.

Derrick Rose outperformed Lebron in the 2011 regular season.

Lebron is a better player in general. But he was outperformed in that time interval.


Its like.. the 2011 Heat are a way better team than the 2011 Mavs. But who outperformed who? For a single regular season Rose played better than Lebron.

[QUOTE=Kblaze8855]For real...I dont even know what that is.

Is that the new per/winshares/whatever?[/QUOTE]

TS%, PER, WS, etc are basic enough computations. At one point people actually called people using these stats nerds. Well the actual nerds went WAY beyond those and created some really complex statistics designed to get rid of as many of the variables as they could.

The counting stats just don't show the effectiveness of a lot of players. Draw a charge? Deflect a pass? D someone up and cause a 24 sec violation? Those show the same thing in the box score as standing there like Jimmer at BYU and letting your guy fly by you.

What statisticians want to create is a way to look at the player's quantiative effectiveness on the game. So +/- becomes really interesting. Unfortunately, there is always an insane amount of noise when looking at +/-. Who was in the game with you, who were you playing against, was their best player in, was it home or road game, what pace was the game played at, etc. But if they can remove that noise they can really see a player's true effect on the actual score of the game. And that is what RAPM is.

[url]http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2011/12/6/2602153/advanced-stats-primer[/url]

Is really good explaining why +/- needs adjustments and why even the adjusted +/- isn't good enough. But the math on this gets difficult for nuclear physicists so comprehend (seriously: [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tikhonov_regularization[/url]) so rather than use RAPM and the like we settle for things we can explain.

The problem is that we want as much data as we can get. Often we need to get into prior seasons to get enough data points to become predictive. Meanwhile, voters would prefer to look at LeBron going 2/12 on game winners and DRose making 4 game winners.

[QUOTE=Kblaze8855]53-54 wins? Ah...a theory. We have a theory. Im gonna go ahead and leave that in the world you found it. And deal in the one we have.

Rose owes his MVP to his team like every MVP ever did. Just to different degrees. Hes hardly the only MVP on a team that won with defense while not being a key defender.[/QUOTE]

As Hurricane already said. You're a cherrypicker. The strike shortened season showed a decent sample size of how well the Bulls still played minus Rose. That was the last season before the Bulls bench was gutted.

Edit: 18-9 looks to be in the 53-54w neighborhood.

[quote]
As Hurricane already said. You're a cherrypicker. The strike shortened season showed a decent sample size of how well the Bulls still played minus Rose. That was the last season before the Bulls bench was gutted.

Edit: 18-9 looks to be in the 53-54w neighborhood.
[/quote]

1. Cherrypicking is not what you call counting every single game.

2. When I got to specific years it was because of you.

3. In the year you just mentioned....



They were on a 68 win pace with him.....

33 wins.

7 losses.

.825.

67.65 wins in 82.

You can pretend that playing at a pace equivalent of the 3rd best record of all time isnt much different from playing at a 3rd to 5th seed(depending on the year) pace.

Thats on you.

I find it rather different. Different like....being last years Heat record wise....or a little worse than Memphis?

Quite a bit larger than the difference between wins with and without a lot of MVPs. Id estimate...10-12 wins is a usual dropoff. Wilts 76ers....won 57. Jordans Bulls 55. Kareems bucks swapped him for a good 4 and won the same number of games. Oscars team I think was about the same. Rick Barry left and his team won I think 50-55 when he went to the ABA. Birds Celtics maybe from 55 to 42 is close? Great players dont tend to make as much of an impact on wins as one might assume.

Not on really good teams.

[QUOTE=DMAVS41]Rose clearly deserved MVP based on the historical standard...

Rose was clearly not the best player in the league in 11...[/QUOTE]


That's about the case and anyone who disagrees with these two points is ****ing up.

I hate that, in arguments on message boards, it seems like people can't go out and make two statements like this (that set limits on each side.) So it comes down to, in a thread like this, arguing who was the better player or which player was more important for their team.

That team won more games than anyone expected them to, had the best record in the league. Rose played like a superstar.

Also wow @ saying he shot under 45% when he shot .445. What are we talking about here? That's like 7 or 8 shots over the course of the year by my calculations. Jussayin...

I bet you can say he was one of the lowest FTA averaging MVPS, too, especially if you want to stipulate MVPs that were number 1 options. You can say that it means he's just not as aggressive as others (heh) but I'm saying it means he didn't get bailed out. And that's worth the less than 10 shots he missed to put him "under 45%."

-Smak

[QUOTE=DMAVS41]Sure...but I think what the argument is...is that replace Rose with another offensive minded quality player and you'd get great results. I would imagine that is the argument.

Not that...just lose Rose and not replace him...that doesn't make sense.

I do think Rose was very good...but highly replaceable with other elite offensive players. I usually rank Rose somewhere around the 7th best player in the league.[/QUOTE]
This. Replace Rose with Brandon Jennings and the Bulls are just as good.

When you look at guys like Deng, Noah, Asik, Korver, Gibson, Boozer and so on, its almost unbelievable how stacked that roster was with nothing but quality players. Replace Rose and put a CP3 on that roster, that's a chip.


I'm yet to hear a single argument other than team success for rose to deserve MVP.

[QUOTE=Kblaze8855]Other elite offensive players? So you replace him with some other guy probably going to the hall of fame the team is fine?

I agree. I just dont see how thats a negative. Its like saying you could replace Wes Unseld with Dave Cowens or Bob Lanier and the Bullets would have still been great.

I dont see how thats even a knock.

Now...


Im gonna post a Rose game. Not just highlights....it has the misses too. Some turnovers. And we lost. So its not some highpoint. Take a moment when you have the time and watch this

[URL="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFWOeXBAdsM"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFWOeXBAdsM[/URL]


He shot poorly. 11-28. You will see like 5 rimmed out layups and 2 blocked layups.

He starts to force it with the threes late as he tried to get us back in it.

ends up with a bad looking statline.

Tell me. He goes....11-28.

How many bad shots did you see before desperation quick shot time?

Thats the typical hated on Derrick Rose game. Poor shooting. Lost.

Id like to know what you find wrong with what he was doing there. And if you can find a way to appreciate the basketball he was playing.[/QUOTE]

It's not a negative. Its an argument used when people try to use the Bulls winning more games than "x team" as evidence that Rose is a better player...etc.

That was my point.

And in that sense...the defense and rebounding was the driving factor in the wins. Their offense was 11th best and their defense was first. Rose made no impact defensively...in fact, the Bulls defense actually improved with him off the floor.

That is the point.

Again...it's only valid if someone is claiming Rose is the best player because of team success and not his own play...and obviously his own play doesn't warrant putting him in the class as best player in the league.

Hope that makes sense.

[QUOTE=tpols]Well thats exactly what happened.

Derrick Rose outperformed Lebron in the 2011 regular season.

Lebron is a better player in general. But he was outperformed in that time interval.


Its like.. the 2011 Heat are a way better team than the 2011 Mavs. But who outperformed who? For a single regular season Rose played better than Lebron.[/QUOTE]
Yet, LeBron somehow managed to be superior in every statistical category and every efficiency metric. I don't know how you outplay somehow when they are better than you in every measurement available.

The only thing Rose has over LeBron is averaging 0.7 more assists.

LeBron was #1 in the league in overall win shares. #1 in offensives win shares. #3 in defensive win shares behind Dwight and KG. #1 in player efficiency.

LeBron averaged more points than Rose with a FG% that was better by more than 5%.

By every measure available, LeBron was better and more valuable on offense. On defense, we don't even need to act like that's a discussion.


There's no possible argument that "Rose outplayed LeBron". It's a ridiculous statement with no basis in fact.