Boston has thrown Porziņģis out of the boat as well.

[QUOTE=Real Men Wear Green;15018373]You failed to post the formula of course. Idiots propping things they don't understand often post crap like you are right now. [B]Meanwhile 30 out of 30 GMs would take Brown over Derozan.[/B][/QUOTE]

For just one season, with both at current salary (Demar making half what Brown makes) I do not think it would be 30 out of 30.

If you remove the long term value difference due to their ages, and just put each guy on a team and try to build around them for one season right now? It's not that big a difference. DeRozan IS a better and more consistent scorer, which is clear just from watching them play, so it's no surprise the metrics back it up as well. JB is a much better defender and probably a bit better playmaker. Overall they're not that different in impact IMO. JB has been fortunate to play on much better teams. Straight up I'd rather have Brown as most people would, but with the extra 25 million in salary you're gonna be able to put a better player next to Derozan, which probably makes their respective values close to even. Possibly even slighty favoring Derozan.

Some GM's would take Brown at his 50 million dollar salary, but I'm sure some would take Demar at $25M and the extra flexibility. Again, especially if it's just with an eye toward the next season or two, not in picking a long term cornerstone.

[QUOTE=FultzNationRISE;15018394]For just one season, with both at current salary (Demar making half what Brown makes) I do not think it would be 30 out of 30.

If you remove the long term value difference due to their ages, and just put each guy on a team and try to build around them for one season right now? It's not that big a difference. DeRozan IS a better and more consistent scorer, which is clear just from watching them play, so it's no surprise the metrics back it up as well. JB is a much better defender and probably a bit better playmaker. Overall they're not that different in impact IMO. JB has been fortunate to play on much better teams. Straight up I'd rather have Brown as most people would, but with the extra 25 million in salary you're gonna be able to put a better player next to Derozan, which probably makes their respective values close to even. Possibly even slighty favoring Derozan.

Some GM's would take Brown at his 50 million dollar salary, but I'm sure some would take Demar at $25M and the extra flexibility. Again, especially if it's just with an eye toward the next season or two, not in picking a long term cornerstone.[/QUOTE]

No no, this makes no sense. Brown by himself is better than Derozan + Reid, or Derozan + Josh Hart + $6M left over, or better than Derozan + JJJ, don't you see his Finals MVP??

[QUOTE=Real Men Wear Green;15018383]No you posted what it is supposed to represent. The actual formula, which you clearly do not understand, is not being posted and I "suspect" you have never actually seen it. If you had seen it and understood it you would shut me up with an intelligent post instead of the repetitive shitposting you always do.

RAPM supposedly adjusts plus-minus to account for one player having better teammates than another. Ok, how?When he was a Bull what did the RAPM formula do to account for him playing with Zach Lavine vs Brown playing with Tatum? Advanced stat formula are often influenced by the creator of the formulas opinion on the value of various stats. So which stat did the RAPM creator multiply by 0.79 or whatever random number they thought led to a more balanced result? How did they actually use "linear regression" (it's just an x vs y formula dumbass)?

You can't answer these questions because you don't know what you are talking about. Calling your knowledge here"superficial" would actually be overrating it.[/QUOTE]

Apm uses a linear regression. No it’s not just a x and y formula. You can solve for as many variables as you want not just one. A 5 man lineup vs another 5 man lineup will produce some plus minus. You take every scenario and solve for every player. When you have too many variables you have a multicollinearity problem which means multiple variable are too correlated so you can’t isolate impact. In nba terms means say Tatum plays so many of his minutes with brown so is his plus minus good because of himself or because of brown. You can determine that by watching the games but that’s purely subjective a stat isn’t that.

Idk the Math to ridge regression well but rapm uses it to take care of the multicollinearity problem so there’s much less of a is Tatum only good because he plays with brown problem. [url]https://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=8232[/url]. This thread explains it better than me. Yes you have to pick some lambda but you use cross validation to pick out those values it’s not based on creators biased opinion about nba players. That means you divide say a whole season into multiple datasets(the program does it for you). You run your regression on the other datasets to make sure it performs well on every dataset not just the initial one you test on. You bringing up the 0.79 like you’re talking about PER shows you don’t know the stat. Source: I did this damn shit in stats class even though I’m rusty.

Also there are other ways to take of multicollinearoty mainly just having multi year larger sample sizes. Say you think Derozan was only good because of lowry. You can’t really say that if his 3 yr apm including his years in San Antonio were good and you have more minutes of Derozan playing without Lowry

[QUOTE=Real Men Wear Green;15018324]The winning percentage with and without Irving was the same and more importantly Irving did not play in the playoffs. Again you try to ignore easily researched facts that I already knew. But if comparing second season Brown to what Ingram couldn't do playing with LeBron James I'll tell you what: pull out any part of Ingram's playoff career and show something as impressive as leading a team to the conference finals[/QUOTE]

What Ingram couldn't do? He had to sit out the rest of his season because of a blood clot.. He grew into a #2 role that year playing next to Lebron and averaged over 20 a game on elite efficiency for months before he was forced to stop playing. Him leading the Pelicans to the Playoffs (a team that was 7 - 20 without him) with Zion sitting out the '22 season was more impressive than Brown being a #3 on a team that won 2 series with home court.


Either way, Brown is not worth the supermax and the Celtics should look to move him if they want to build a new contender around Tatum. They're taking offers for Brown/White as we speak.

Kblaze still has that stupid Spider-Man thing going. At least he is a bulls fan. Boston has almost 3/4 of a billion dollars invested. They have to shed payroll somehow. And here is one way

[QUOTE=Kblaze8855;15017335]Multiple reputable people have said they started listening to offers for Brown too though they aren’t outright soliciting them. Apparently it’s gone from ignoring them to considering it.

They really might go scorched earth. They really could get themselves a thunder like haul where they have 20ish first round picks the next 5 to 7 years if they wanted to.

If they get rid of brown, they might as well try to find four first rounders for white as well.

Get themselves more than a dozen total picks have 80 or 90 million in cap space tank next season And see who wants to come play with Tatum and all the first rounders in the world.

if you’re gonna blow it up, don’t **** around with it.[/QUOTE]

Kblaze is most likely Asian with a small peen

[QUOTE=beasted;15018398]No no, this makes no sense. Brown by himself is better than Derozan + Reid, or Derozan + Josh Hart + $6M left over, or better than Derozan + JJJ, don't you see his Finals MVP??[/QUOTE]
Brown by himself does have more trade value than any of those combinations.[QUOTE=NBAGOAT;15018403]Apm uses a linear regression. No it’s not just a x and y formula. You can solve for as many variables as you want not just one. A 5 man lineup vs another 5 man lineup will produce some plus minus. You take every scenario and solve for every player. When you have too many variables you have a multicollinearity problem which means multiple variable are too correlated so you can’t isolate impact. In nba terms means say Tatum plays so many of his minutes with brown so is his plus minus good because of himself or because of brown. You can determine that by watching the games but that’s purely subjective a stat isn’t that.[/quote]It's an a,b, c, d,e....formula. Which no one discussing it in this thread actually knows.[QUOTE]Idk the Math to ridge regression well but rapm uses it to take care of the multicollinearity problem [/QUOTE]I give you a small amount of credit for honesty but this line means that you don't truly understand RAPM, you just know what it's supposed to represent. [QUOTE]You bringing up the 0.79 like you’re talking about PER shows you don’t know the stat.[/QUOTE]I never said I did, Been pretty upfront about not valuing it at all because most of the people talking about it don't know where the number is coming from. Real world fans don't care about this at all, never even heard of it.[QUOTE=ImKobe;15018415]What Ingram couldn't do? He had to sit out the rest of his season because of a blood clot.. He grew into a #2 role that year playing next to Lebron and averaged over 20 a game on elite efficiency for months before he was forced to stop playing. Him leading the Pelicans to the Playoffs (a team that was 7 - 20 without him) with Zion sitting out the '22 season was more impressive than Brown being a #3 on a team that won 2 series with home court.[/quote]9 years of excuses and counting.


[quote]Either way, Brown is not worth the supermax and the Celtics should look to move him if they want to build a new contender around Tatum. They're taking offers for Brown/White as we speak.[/QUOTE]And yet somehow it's other teams trying to trade for him with his supermax and the Celtics saying"no."

[QUOTE=Real Men Wear Green;15018445]Brown by himself does have more trade value than any of those combinations.It's an a,b, c, d,e....formula. Which no one discussing it in this thread actually knows.I give you a small amount of credit for honesty but this line means that you don't truly understand RAPM, you just know what it's supposed to represent. I never said I did, Been pretty upfront about not valuing it at all because most of the people talking about it don't know where the number is coming from. Real world fans don't care about this at all, never even heard of it.9 years of excuses and counting.


And yet somehow it's other teams trying to trade for him with his supermax and the Celtics saying"no."[/QUOTE]

A,b,c,d,e jist represent the 5 players. Easier to not explain it in a too mathey way on this forum however so I don’t. I mean I only don’t know the math too well though if I put some time in I could make my own rapm I think. It uses a different regression than linear regression that’s the main difference. I do know how cross validation works it’s a really good method to take estimate the lambda. You’ll get a slightly different lambda and different results because of variance not bias. A bunch of people online have coded and produced their own rapm creator posted his methodology.

Fans don’t care but who cares about what we think. NBA front offices use them and send bunch of guys to Sloan every year. Rapm is a bit outdated but there are better impact metrics out there not even publicly available. The reason pipm isn’t publicly available anymore is the creator got hired by the wizards. Front offices are using some all in one metric

[QUOTE=Real Men Wear Green;15018445]Brown by himself does have more trade value than any of those combinations.[/QUOTE]
You have a nasty habit of bringing up totally irrelevant points during a discussion, such as a 2023-24 Finals MVP when comparing two player's performances in the 2024-25 season.

As an FYI, my reply was to this post and in the context framework of this post which has absolutely nothing to do with trade value, even though I don't agree with your position anyway.

[QUOTE=FultzNationRISE;15018394][B]For just one season, with both at current salary (Demar making half what Brown makes) I do not think it would be 30 out of 30. [/B]
[B]
If you remove the long term value difference due to their ages, and just put each guy on a team and try to build around them for one season right now? It's not that big a difference[/B]. DeRozan IS a better and more consistent scorer, which is clear just from watching them play, so it's no surprise the metrics back it up as well. JB is a much better defender and probably a bit better playmaker. Overall they're not that different in impact IMO. JB has been fortunate to play on much better teams. [B]Straight up I'd rather have Brown as most people would, but with the extra 25 million in salary you're gonna be able to put a better player next to Derozan, which probably makes their respective values close to even. Possibly even slighty favoring Derozan. [/B]

[B]Some GM's would take Brown at his 50 million dollar salary, but I'm sure some would take Demar at $25M and the extra flexibility. Again, especially if it's just with an eye toward the next season or two, not in picking a long term cornerstone.[/B][/QUOTE]

Boston gave it a great run but this isn’t baseball. Their payroll is too high, way too high. With key players coming off of serious injuries, they will shed more players since they didn’t win a thing. Go Thunder!