The 2001 Iverson Case Study: Was He Really Inefficient?

In this small article, I’m going to break down Iverson’s stats from his 2001 Cinderella playoff run where he led the Sixers to the NBA Finals, ultimately losing to the Shaq-Kobe Lakers in 5 games. Iverson is wildly popular among NBA fans of all ages for his flashy crossovers and boy did he show his heart on the court. Much of the modern fanbase has turned their back on Iverson because of his poor scoring efficiency. But was Iverson really an inefficient offensive player in the 2001 playoffs or is there more to the story? I’ve set out to find the answer. And perhaps this article will change the general perception of Iverson and other similar players.

What this article won’t address is the type of shots Iverson took. Yes he took tough shots but so did other perimeter scorers especially in that era of isolation ball. Kobe, McGrady, Carter etc. all took shots of comparable difficulty to AI so I won’t use his shot selection to excuse his poor shooting when his contemporaries went through a similar cauldron.

What many fans and even analysts of the game sometimes miss is that when Iverson, or any player for that matter, takes the ball one of four outcomes can occur: 1) a made shot 2) a missed shot 3) a pass to a teammate 4) a turnover. With Iverson most of the conversation is about how many missed shots he had compared to made shots which is reflected in his poor TS%. In the 2001 playoffs Iverson had a 48.0 %TS which was 3.8% below league average. This is expressed as a -3.8 rTS (relative true shooting) and it’s really not a good result and doesn’t paint him in a good light. However, the other two outcomes of possessions that go through him are not often considered. Passes are somewhat inadequately represented by assists but I won’t dwell on his passing much. He was a moderately effective passer. The fourth outcome which is completely neglected when analyzing efficiency is turnovers. AI is one of the least turnover prone players in NBA history. That’s a strong statement but there is considerable evidence. Iverson averaged 2.9 turnovers per game in the 2001 playoffs while playing a super-heavy 46.2 mpg and having a ridiculous USG% of 36.8 which is the 4th highest of all time. His TOV% (turnovers per 100 possessions) is 7.7 which is historically elite. In fact it is the 6th lowest turnover rate in the postseason by any player with a USG% over 35 playing over 35 minutes per game. The only three players to record lower rates are Tracy McGrady (once), Michael Jordan (three times) and AI himself in 2002. And only two of the aforementioned Jordan runs spanned around 20 playoff games comparable to AI in 2001. The others’ stats were for 3-5 playoff games or one playoff round. Thus AI had the 3rd lower turnover rate in 2001 playoffs for any playoff run that went over 5 games.

How much value does his historically low TOV% have? League average TOV% in 2000-2001 was 14.1. If AI had a league average TOV% of 14.1 instead of 7.7 he would have averaged 5.3 turnovers per game instead of 2.9 turnovers per game! Thus AI makes 2.4 turnovers fewer per game. How much is that worth compared to say 2.4 missed shots? A turnover is much worse than a missed shot. Even a dead ball turnover gives away possessions outright whereas a missed shot had a 28.2% chance of being rebounded by the offensive team in 2000-2001. Then there are live ball turnovers which result in steals for the other team and generally lead to much better shots (often fast breaks) and hurt the team that makes those turnovers on the defensive end rather severely. Given league averages, about half of all turnovers are live ball turnovers and the other half are dead ball turnovers. A rough estimate can be made that an average turnover is about 50% worse than a missed shot and this is supported by regression analysis. Thus AI making 2.4 turnovers fewer is equivalent to missing 3.6 shots fewer per game. I conservatively rounded down to 3.5 shots missed.

This is Allen Iverson’s average line in the 2001 playoffs:

32.9 PTS, 11.7 FGM, 30.0 FGA, 7.3 FT, 9.5 FTA, 48.0 %TS

Now let’s analyze what happens to AI’s TS% if he was more efficient scoring the ball. We are going to remove missed shots one by one:

-1 FGA: 32.9 PTS, 11.7 FGM, 29.0 FGA, 7.3 FT, 9.5 FTA, 49.6 %TS

-2 FGA: 32.9 PTS, 11.7 FGM, 28.0 FGA, 7.3 FT, 9.5 FTA, 51.1 %TS

-3 FGA: 32.9 PTS, 11.7 FGM, 27.0 FGA, 7.3 FT, 9.5 FTA, 52.8 %TS

-3.5 FGA: 32.9 PTS, 11.7 FGM, 26.5 FGA, 7.3 FT, 9.5 FTA, 53.6 %TS

With 3.5 fewer misses, his efficiency is 53.6 %TS which already puts him at +1.8 rTS (1.8% above league average efficiency) and comparable to the likes of Kobe and T-Mac from this era who were considered moderately efficient scorers.

Therefore we can conclude that [B]Allen Iverson was above average in the 2001 NBA playoffs in terms of efficiency[/B]; not clearly below average which his scoring efficiency indicates. His historically low turnover rates must also be accounted for.

LeBron shot similar percentages in the 2015 Finals.

[QUOTE=warriorfan;14275506]LeBron shot similar percentages in the 2015 Finals.[/QUOTE]
And Curry still couldn’t get more votes for FMVP

He shot 38% from the field and 48 TS. That's horrible.

You're right his low turnovers rise his ORTG to 105 which isn't bad given his circumstances, but his scoring / shooting ability was bad. He just chucked tons of shots. Kobe and Ray were both very efficient in their 2001 runs.

With AI responsible for a historic offensive load, his team was able to load up on good defensive players who weren't asked to do too much on offense.

[QUOTE=tpols;14275518]He shot 38% from the field and 48 TS. That's horrible.

You're right his low turnovers rise his ORTG to 105 which isn't bad given his circumstances, but his scoring / shooting ability was bad. He just chucked tons of shots. Kobe and Ray were both very efficient in their 2001 runs.[/QUOTE]

You absolutely have to factor in his historically low turnovers into his overall efficiency though. Like I said 2.4 turnovers fewer is equivalent to about 3.5 fewer missed shots. If AI was league average in turnovers but missed 3.5 fewer shots each game he'd shoot the same % as Kobe or T-Mac in that era. I bet no one would consider him inefficient in that case because turnover numbers kind of fly under the radar.

[QUOTE=dankok8;14275549]You absolutely have to factor in his historically low turnovers into his overall efficiency though. Like I said 2.4 turnovers fewer is equivalent to about 3.5 fewer missed shots. If AI was league average in turnovers but missed 3.5 fewer shots each game he'd shoot the same % as Kobe or T-Mac in that era. I bet no one would consider him inefficient in that case because turnover numbers kind of fly under the radar.[/QUOTE]

I know I agree you have to factor that in. That's a big part of ORTG. But While AI's was 105, Kobe's was 116 and Ray Allen's was 124. So they were far more efficient. Guys that could shoot the 3 before it became mainstream were really worth their weight in gold, and people back then just didn't realize or focus on it. It was considered a "bad" shot and had a stigma.

[QUOTE=tpols;14275554]I know I agree you have to factor that in. That's a big part of ORTG. But While AI's was 105, Kobe's was 116 and Ray Allen's was 124. So they were far more efficient. Guys that could shoot the 3 before it became mainstream were really worth their weight in gold, and people back then just didn't realize or focus on it. It was considered a "bad" shot and had a stigma.[/QUOTE]

Individual ORtg isn't a very good stat.

Kobe in 2001 had a really good playoff run. He was definitely better. However I'd argue 2001 Iverson had a better playoff run individually than Kobe in 2000 and 2002. Either way Kobe was the better basketball player.

Ray Allen nah... They are completely different players stylistically too though. I don't even know where I'd start comparing AI and Ray. But Ray just wasn't capable of carrying a team. He and Reggie Miller who you argued for in another thread are pretty much your perfect #2 guys who thrive off ball and play off of other stars. But AI has to be analyzed in the context of a primary scorer and floor raiser.

[QUOTE=dankok8;14275560]Individual ORtg isn't a very good stat.

[B]Kobe in 2001 had a really good playoff run. He was definitely better. However I'd argue 2001 Iverson had a better playoff run individually than Kobe in 2000 and 2002.[/B] Either way Kobe was the better basketball player. [/QUOTE]

Iverson scored on higher ORTG in 2001 than Kobe did in 2002 or 2000 so your perception matches reality. Kobe wasn't efficient in those runs, simple fact. He only had hyper efficiency in his 2001, 2009, and 2010 rings. Iverson never had hyper efficiency in his whole career in the playoffs. And of course was a far worse defender and intangible influence (practice?... Kobe lived for that)


[QUOTE=dankok8;14275560]Ray Allen nah... They are completely different players stylistically too though. I don't even know where I'd start comparing AI and Ray. But Ray just wasn't capable of carrying a team. He and Reggie Miller who you argued for in another thread are pretty much your perfect #2 guys who thrive off ball and play off of other stars. But AI has to be analyzed in the context of a primary scorer and floor raiser.[/QUOTE]

What do you mean Ray Allen nah? Ray Allen was clearly better than Iverson in their 2001 matchup by every metric. The sixers won with their DEFENSE and Larry Brown. Not Iverson carrying them. Iverson shot like shit in the playoffs. The reason his turnovers were so low is because, contrary to popular opinion, he wasn't a true on ball player. He let Eric Snow be the floor general while he ran around like a mad man trying to quick strike. But he just shot... like crap most of the time.

Ray Allen OTOH shot at an absurd conversion rate and could've filled Iverson's role even better. Because he was a far better shooter and scorer. And in his prime an elite athlete as well. I hate to break it to you guys but shooting matters a lot in basketball for offense. It's like... the main thing that matters for an individual player. How well you shot or created for others. Iverson shot like shit and was selfish around others. So his offense was a negative.

wont be an asshole and demean your op. obviously you took your time and its well thought out.

that being said, its 100% conjecture. iverson WAS an inefficient scorer. so when people label him THAT is what they mean. its pure speculation to assume that because he has a good tov% it [B]makes up[/B] for his woeful shooting percentage. turnovers & missed shots are two separate categories. and one doesn't magically put a bandaid on the other, otherwise why wouldn't we talk about iverson's defense? that along with his inefficiency hurt his team, period.

[QUOTE=tpols;14275566]Iverson scored on higher ORTG in 2001 than Kobe did in 2002 or 2000 so your perception matches reality. Kobe wasn't efficient in those runs, simple fact. He only had hyper efficiency in his 2001, 2009, and 2010 rings. Iverson never had hyper efficiency in his whole career in the playoffs. And of course was a far worse defender and intangible influence (practice?... Kobe lived for that)




What do you mean Ray Allen nah? Ray Allen was clearly better than Iverson in their 2001 matchup by every metric. The sixers won with their DEFENSE and Larry Brown. Not Iverson carrying them. Iverson shot like shit in the playoffs. The reason his turnovers were so low is because, contrary to popular opinion, he wasn't a true on ball player. He let Eric Snow be the floor general while he ran around like a mad man trying to quick strike. But he just shot... like crap most of the time.

Ray Allen OTOH shot at an absurd conversion rate and could've filled Iverson's role even better. Because he was a far better shooter and scorer. And in his prime an elite athlete as well. I hate to break it to you guys but shooting matters a lot in basketball for offense. It's like... the main thing that matters for an individual player. How well you shot or created for others. Iverson shot like shit and was selfish around others. So his offense was a negative.[/QUOTE]

:applause:

heavy-hitting posts brah. good stuff

He was inefficient but it hardly matters because he also led his team to the Finals as the best player on his team while being supported by a great coach, the dpoy and a good defensive minded supporting cast.

It's hard to tell because the offense across the league sucked in that era. I always say you should be more efficient in playoffs then you were in reg season, Allen Iverson took a -4 TS hit. So I would say he wasn't efficient. Still had an insane usage rate, which makes it harder to be efficient. Kawhi's efficiency dropped in 2nd round 2019 game 7 because he had an insane 48% usage.

[QUOTE=tpols;14275566]Iverson scored on higher ORTG in 2001 than Kobe did in 2002 or 2000 so your perception matches reality. Kobe wasn't efficient in those runs, simple fact. He only had hyper efficiency in his 2001, 2009, and 2010 rings. Iverson never had hyper efficiency in his whole career in the playoffs. And of course was a far worse defender and intangible influence (practice?... Kobe lived for that)




What do you mean Ray Allen nah? Ray Allen was clearly better than Iverson in their 2001 matchup by every metric. The sixers won with their DEFENSE and Larry Brown. Not Iverson carrying them. Iverson shot like shit in the playoffs. The reason his turnovers were so low is because, contrary to popular opinion, he wasn't a true on ball player. He let Eric Snow be the floor general while he ran around like a mad man trying to quick strike. But he just shot... like crap most of the time.

Ray Allen OTOH shot at an absurd conversion rate and could've filled Iverson's role even better. Because he was a far better shooter and scorer. And in his prime an elite athlete as well. I hate to break it to you guys but shooting matters a lot in basketball for offense. It's like... the main thing that matters for an individual player. How well you shot or created for others. Iverson shot like shit and was selfish around others. So his offense was a negative.[/QUOTE]

Yea but Allen was a guy who ran around screens and played off of guys. Give him the ball to run plays for himself and the whole team and he will crash and burn. He's not an iso player and when you're the only scorer on your team you have be an iso player to a degree. Especially in that era with far worse spacing. Iverson was definitely an on-ball player compared to someone like Ray. I agree that AI too player a bit off ball but he was mostly on ball.

Ray better in their matchup? I don't think so. AI was better in Game 4, 6 and 7 of that series. In fact he exploded for back to back 40+ games in Game 6 and 7 on close to 60 %TS or +8 rTS. That's pretty epic! Iverson's horrid shooting is also misleading in that way as well. He had some terrific shooting games and then some absolute stinkers but in the games he shot well he'd go for 40+ and almost invariably win the game for his team. For example a player who has 3 games in a playoff series shooting 60 %TS and 4 games shooting 40 %TS might have an overall 48 %TS which is terrible but if those 3 good shooting games give his teams 3 wins he still puts you in a good position to win the series. I don't mind saying it was close but Ray wasn't better.

[QUOTE=mehyaM24;14275571]wont be an asshole and demean your op. obviously you took your time and its well thought out.

that being said, its 100% conjecture. iverson WAS an inefficient scorer. so when people label him THAT is what they mean. its pure speculation to assume that because he has a good tov% it [B]makes up[/B] for his woeful shooting percentage. turnovers & missed shots are two separate categories. and one doesn't magically put a bandaid on the other, otherwise why wouldn't we talk about iverson's defense? that along with his inefficiency hurt his team, period.



:applause:

heavy-hitting posts brah. good stuff[/QUOTE]

Ok. He was an inefficient scorer. Problem is people end the discussion at that and never bring up his historically low turnover rate. In 2001 playoffs, Iverson posted the 3rd lowest TOV% by any player to have USG% > 35 and MPG > 35 in a run lasting over one playoff round. The only guy to post lower turnover rates is MJ.

When you're that good at not turning the ball over that's a major boost and compensates for poor shooting when looking at overall offensive efficiency. I'm simply doing AI justice. [B]He was a very inefficient scorer with a historically low turnover rate. Overall he had an above average offensive efficiency. [/B]

If you shoot a high %, but turn the ball over a ton while doing it, you aren't an "efficient scorer". I buy OP's premise. I went back and watched a bunch of games from that run. Iverson wasn't just taking the shots, he was creating the shots with his own movement. There's something to be said about getting consistent offense in a way that doesn't involve a lot of energy expenditure from your entire team. There's something to be said for creating shots in a manner that doesn't lead to opponent fastbreak opportunities.

This guy ran around for 45 minutes a night powering an offense full of guys who weren't very good on offense. Dikembe was the only other starter to ever average 14ppg for a season in their ENTIRE CAREERS...and he only did it once (as a rookie). Of course he was taking tough shots and bailout shots. WHO ELSE WAS GOING TO SHOOT?

Edit: not trying to be rude to people for no reason.