Let's talk about the future

So, this season the East is historically terrible, and the Raptors are somehow one of the only teams showing cohesion and drive. This is something of a mixed blessing, as has been griped about ad nauseum by Raptors fans. We thought we'd be shit terrible again and have a strong shot at Wiggins or one of the other half dozen studs likely to enter the draft in 2014.

It's all smiles und sunshine right now with the team winning and extremely likely to make the playoffs, DeMar potentially getting an All-Star nod. Hooray! But let's be real, this is only happening because the East is effing unbelievably awful, next season more teams will presumably have their shit together. So to remain competitive, the Raptors have a few key choices:

A) What to do with Kyle Lowry?
B) Who to draft in the 15-22 range?
C) Amir and Salmons are both team options for $7 mill.
D) Pat-Pat's qualifying offer is $4.3 mill, Vasquez's is $3.2 mill.
E) Free agent signing(s).

I would like to hear what people think we should do/will happen.

A) Lowry is going to be asking for $10 million. I don't think he's worth that. He's playing well in a contract year and we're winning in a fluke-ishly bad East, but I can see him becoming a ball-dominant chucker again when he gets his eight-figure-per-year deal that lasts until he's 32. Unfortunately we also probably aren't going to trade him before the season's over either, because management will want to win a playoff series. So umm, basically what I'm saying is we're probably going to let him walk for nothing/basically nothing or give him a bad contract. Who knows, maybe he'll be worth the $10 mill per?

B) I know the season is only like a third over, but realistically, we're not going to be in the lottery this year (if trading Gay was a tanking move, it backfired Masai!). We don't have anything to trade to let us move up into the lottery, and no one was likely to trade out of the lottery in a draft this strong anyways. But damn it, we still have our first round pick this year! There will be prospects around! Prospects like Glenn Robinson III, Willie Cauley-Stein, the Harrison twins, Oliver Hanlan, Mitch McGary, James Michael McAdoo, Jerami Grant, T.J. Warren, Montrezl Harrell, maybe even Aaron Gordon could still be around. We could maybe get Tyler Ennis, a kind of consolation prize Canadian prospect for not getting Wiggins? Who knows who'll still be available, it's too early really to predict, but there's enough talent in this class that we should still get someone solid. The most important thing is that we should not be drafting to fill a position. BPA. Of the players I mentioned I favour Gordon, Cauley-Stein, Grant, and Ennis, but realistically they will rise on draft boards.

C) I say keep Amir and let Salmons walk, maybe that's obvious.

D) Keep both, Pat-Pat for $5 mill per, maybe a little more, Vasquez for no more than $4 mill per? Unrealistic?

E) Let's look at our options for a FA signing at PG if we let Lowry walk.
Basically the best options are Darren Collison, Jameer Nelson, Aaron Brooks, Isaiah Thomas, and Patty Mills. Am I crazy if I mention Jordan Farmar? So yeah, not a whole lot. Spurs keep Tony Parker obviously, Suns keep Eric Bledsoe, Celtics keep Avery Bradley.

Soooo, let's say we keep Lowry. He's our franchise PG for 4-5 years.

I've looked at the list of free agents and there's not a whole lot of options really. Later I'll post some ideas for who we might sign. Honestly though it really does look like in two years, looking back, a winning season with us getting home court advantage in the playoffs and DeRozan being an All-Star is going to look like the worst thing that ever happened to us, lol. Is that like the definition of irony or something?

Nice post. I've been thinking about a lot of the same questions.
I don't think there is a huge market out there for Lowry. The lakers are the one team that could prob. Trump the raps for Lowry. No idea if lakers want him, but seems realistic. I'd offer 4 four year extension at 34 mill, 8.5 per. If he turns it down you trade him.
If he resigns I like Vazquez back and Tyler ennis as our draft pick.
Great depth and the ability to trade any of the three.
Salmons has to be gone, for financial purposes.
Wing is derozen Ross and fields and a free agent pickup, maybe on a one year deal.

I think trading novac and second rounder to Portland for Myers Leonard gives us the backup centre we need.

Roster would be,
Lowry, Vazquez, ennis
Derozen, free agent signee (Can play a two point guard lineup) to fill some minutes at two.
Ross fields
Amir, pat/hansbrough
Val, Hayes/Leonard
I think you can play Amir and Patterson together at the forward spots for 8-10 min. Per game. They have both shown the ability, especially Amir, to guard the three spot in short spurts. Patterson acts as the three on offence.

Let Hayes and fields expire and buy out hansbrough to create the cap space for summer of 2015.

I like Hayes and fields, great leadership on the end of the bench. Contracts suck, but high character guys. Could be worse, you could have guys like Charlie v on your bench getting paid 8 mill. I'd take fields any day.

If they should not be able to resign Lowry soon, I think Masai will still trade him considering what happened in Denver with the Nuggets. If they do it'll probably be something similar to Derozan's contract (maybe one less year).

Amir is obviously extended, as he has been excellent for us.

Qualify Patty and Grevis. Good chance we will keep them.

Decline the option on Salmons and keep Hayes because of the guranteed contract.

As far as the pick goes, I say choose the guy with the most potential. Maybe Selden, Glen Robinson, or James Young.

Keep building, and hopefully we find a gem in the middle of the draft similar to Indiana.

I would say you take the best player available, and hope he outplays his contract. This team will go as far as Ross, Val and derozen improve. If two of them become perennial allstars you are probably going to stay in the upper echelon of the east. Lowry and Amir are much closer to their peaks than the other three, but have great heart and leadership. If this team could become a perennial fifty win team then you have a great shot in summer of 2015 or 16 to get a major free agent. A millsap/David west type of signing to help put you over the top. They have to draft well, develop their players and get a little luck along the way.

This team's core is still too weak. It is evident when we play teams like the Pacers and the Heat. Val will improve his game, but Ross and Derozan will just make minor tweaks to their game and will likely stay the way they are. You've got to draft the guy with the highest potential to build on what you have.

The Raps still need another all-star/superstar. They need someone like a Paul George. Middle of the round pick, but has a ton of potential.

[QUOTE=kmart]This team's core is still too weak. [B]It is evident when we play teams like the Pacers and the Heat.[/B] Val will improve his game, but Ross and Derozan will just make minor tweaks to their game and will likely stay the way they are. You've got to draft the guy with the highest potential to build on what you have.

The Raps still need another all-star/superstar. They need someone like a Paul George. Middle of the round pick, but has a ton of potential.[/QUOTE]

While I agree that the core needs more tal.ent, citing how we played against the two best teams in the NBA with all their players in their prime as the benchmark for a squad with two of the three core pieces you listed being sophmores is a bit unfair. Also Ross is more likely to have untapped potential than Derozan. Just compare the two in their second years and I'd say Ross is actually ahead of Derozan's curve. Now by all accounts he doesn't seem to have the same work ethic so we'll see how much of that tallent he taps into.

That said, Masai has found later first round and second round gems before and I don't doubt he can do it again. Also, we have cap room going forward and our pieces will all be more valuable on the trade market with some playoff experience and not having albatross contracts around their necks. No reason we can't get the tallent we need without tanking.

[QUOTE=DJMason]While I agree that the core needs more tal.ent, citing how we played against the two best teams in the NBA with all their players in their prime as the benchmark for a squad with two of the three core pieces you listed being sophmores is a bit unfair. Also Ross is more likely to have untapped potential than Derozan. Just compare the two in their second years and I'd say Ross is actually ahead of Derozan's curve. Now by all accounts he doesn't seem to have the same work ethic so we'll see how much of that tallent he taps into.

That said, Masai has found later first round and second round gems before and I don't doubt he can do it again. Also, we have cap room going forward and our pieces will all be more valuable on the trade market with some playoff experience and not having albatross contracts around their necks. No reason we can't get the tallent we need without tanking.[/QUOTE]

We could compare their second seasons, but Ross is already turning 23 very soon. Seldom do we see players improve dramatically after that age, so to me he is what he is with a few tweaks to his game. Of course with more minutes he will get more numbers. I'm just hoping he improves consistency (which we are seeing more of) and solid defence.

a) KLow will resign @ $10Million + per year or at least there is a good chance. That is the market price. Ultimately what I dont know is if Klow is "Toronto adverse" and will take any deal to get out of here.As said elsewhere its Derozan + vet premium money - up to Iggy money ($12Mill) .... I think we have to pay it.


b) Raps draft a PG if Klow leaves. They draft a small forward/ shooting guard to back up Derozan/Salmons if Klow stays.

The bigs are set: 1) Val 2) Amir 3) Big P 4) Cedric 5) Tyler.

Draft may not be 15 + range. It could be higher if MU can trade up from mutliple picks over 3 years.

c) Amir optioned for good citizenship. Amir may sign for slightly less per year and longer term. Salmons is likely optioned as well unless he signs for slightly less and longer term. Both Salmons and Amir may want 3 years security.

Amir is obviously not Toronto adverse. Salmons ? unsure.

d) Big P is qualified as Amir's backup and eventual replacement. He also allows us to cut trade TylerH next season. He has shown a willingness to grow/improve here with the chance to play.

Vasq is qualified. He is insurance if Klow wont sign and still represents quality punch off the bench. We likely have the best 1-2 PG tandem in the east right now... its at least argueable. It alot like the old days with Jose / JT combo.


e) Ross moves and so does Landry Fields. Both represent value to some teams out there be it 1) young and inexpensive with shooting accuracy or 2) expiring contract at needed position.

In either case those moves are to free up cap space for KLow's numbers and cap flexability. They wont take back a talent and contract unless its expiring.

I dont see much in the way of free agent signings.

MU committed to TSN2 radio to build with what we have ; given his modus operandi in Denver he was happy to let Melo and Nene leave. He did take back Iggy admittedly but Iggy may have been a rental or a planned risk.

[QUOTE=A.M.G.]I've looked at the list of free agents and there's not a whole lot of options really. Later I'll post some ideas for who we might sign. Honestly though it really does look like in two years, looking back, a winning season with us getting home court advantage in the playoffs and DeRozan being an All-Star is going to look like the worst thing that ever happened to us, lol. Is that like the definition of irony or something?[/QUOTE]

There is only 2 guys as a FA that I could see this team chasing.

KLove ( as an expiring contract in 2016 - wanting out )

Its the type of player I think MU might chase if possible. Again I point to the Denver time where he let Melo Nene leave but was willing to get in on Iggy.

So who is the 2nd guy ?

Ironically CB4 or CB0 or just plain old CB. Chris Bosh.

I assume CB "if he leaves Miami" will opt for a Texas team ; but I could see tha Raps make an offer.

With his team leading the Atlantic Division thanks to an 11-5 record since the Rudy Gay deal, Masai Ujiri said he's been encouraged by his team's play and will look to continue to support his core talent. Speaking on TSN 1050 Thursday afternoon, the Raptors GM emphasized his commitment to building on the current roster: “I always say, ‘you can't teach winning by losing,' so we're going to keep encouraging these guys as much as we can.”

[url]http://www.tsn.ca/nba/story/?id=440780[/url]


I'm beginning to lose faith in Ujiri. We are VERY MUCH caught in the dreaded "middle" that he referenced weeks back, playing 500 ball in a shit conference. He earned a lot of fame for a Nuggets team that is now shit and without direction. The 2014 draft was the thing I was looking forward to the most...

[QUOTE=Prodigy]With his team leading the Atlantic Division thanks to an 11-5 record since the Rudy Gay deal, Masai Ujiri said he's been encouraged by his team's play and will look to continue to support his core talent. Speaking on TSN 1050 Thursday afternoon, the Raptors GM emphasized his commitment to building on the current roster:

[QUOTE=kmart]3rd place isn't too middling. I mean give this team some time. They're actually still young (DeRozan 24, Ross 23, Val 22).
[/QUOTE]

I agree.

I wonder what Q has to say...

[U]This is no shot at anyone[/U]... but the tank voices have disappeared and frankly that includes me at least partially. I guess winning and mental toughness have a way of making the demons leave the room as a fan.

I think there is still a point to be made...that instead of signing a FA.. we should be asking MU and MLSE Management to try to move up in the draft. For example I dont think Klove or CB would come here.

The young core Derozan / Ross / Val and I will add Vasquez and Big P to the puzzle look like a solid solid nucleus but we are still missing the "potential" of Wiggens or some other game changer.... which is part luck and part skill in the draft.

Ross might be needed to make such a move up in the draft class and I would not begrudge management for pulling that trigger... especially if we end up "needing a star PG" because KLow leaves.

It looks like the Raptors are going to stand pat the rest of this year so there just isn't anything to talk about future-wise. That will all be decided in the offseason. It's tough to speculate about anything since it doesn't seem like any other major piece will be traded during the season and there's no top draft pick to look forward to.

Will they re-sign Lowry? I'm sure they'll try because it would be a PR disaster (in terms of the casual fanbase) to lose the team's best player after a surprising year. A contract probably starts at around $9-10 million per year. The Lakers will probably be the Raptors main competition but they might be saving their money for bigger fish.

The draft isn't really worth talking about since the Raptors won't be in the lottery. Who knows who will be available in the 16-22 range. I'm sure the Raptors will try to trade up but I just don't see that happening unless another team is absolutely in love with Derozan and we see a Demar + Raptors 1st rounder for top 10 pick kind of deal. And that would be hard to sell to the casual fans as well. It's a fine balancing act between maintaining revenue and interest and taking risks and trying to build a serious winner.

You keep guys like Vasquez and Patterson if they're cheap. Let them go otherwise. Both can be solid rotation players but nothing more, IMO. You obviously let Salmons go.

Right now, the Raptors future to becoming a legit contender depends on internal growth in Valanciunas (who I like and believe in) and Ross (who I am not a fan of). Whether the ownership even cares about that is another thing. What I'm worried about is signging Lowry and Amir to big extensions and being locked in with this core. The overconfidence in the current roster has happened twice in Raptors history. The JYD, Alvin and AD extensions with Vince. The Colangelo post division title years with Bosh. Both times the Raptors failed to surround a top talent with anything decent. Except this time there isn't any one as good as Vince or Bosh.

[QUOTE=kmart]3rd place isn't too middling. I mean give this team some time. They're actually still young (DeRozan 24, Ross 23, Val 22).
[/QUOTE]

Lettuce be for real. The Eastern Conference is historically bad this year. If this was any other year, we'd probably be the 5-6th seed.

[QUOTE=Prodigy]Lettuce be for real. The Eastern Conference is historically bad this year. If this was any other year, we'd probably be the 5-6th seed.[/QUOTE]

Eh they are young and in 3rd. Don't think we can complain.

[QUOTE=Qwyjibo]
Will they re-sign Lowry? .... A contract probably starts at around $9-10 million per year.

You keep guys like Vasquez and Patterson if they're cheap. Let them go otherwise. Both can be solid rotation players but nothing more, IMO. You obviously let Salmons go.

Right now, the Raptors future to becoming a legit contender depends on internal growth in Valanciunas (who I like and believe in) and Ross (who I am not a fan of).....

What I'm worried about is signging Lowry and Amir to big extensions and being locked in with this core. The overconfidence in the current roster has happened twice in Raptors history. The JYD, Alvin and AD extensions with Vince. The Colangelo post division title years with Bosh. Both times the Raptors failed to surround a top talent with anything decent. Except this time there isn't any one as good as Vince or Bosh.[/QUOTE]

Really good post Q... in fact while I never totally agreed with you on "total tank" you nailed a lot of my thoughts concerns.

1) I think Klow is actually 10.5 M - 11M money.. a small quibble. It just is. He will want Ike money but probably has earned a premium to Derozan money.

2) Vasq and Big P are keeper on qualifying offers. No worried there. I think we keep Salmons as well. I think Salmons may be wise enough to trade more years for less money.

3) I think Ross is the trade card. The growth you talk about is centris to Val and Derozan - minor difference.

4) Over confidence in roster. Here you nailed my own concerns. Some "peace of mind" will come if Amir / Salmons sign longer deals at less money.

The draft is a mute point albiet I see Ross as the carrot.

I'm one of the biggest pro-tank guys here, but honestly, I would not care if this team was winning on the backs of the young guys(Ross, Val, Derozan).

My biggest fear about this season is due to the hot streak and the pathetic state of the East, Casey will be retained and Casey is BY FAR the biggest detriment to this team. There's a reason John Salmons and Chuck Hayes were not playing in Sacramento. We're starting to see the same old bullsh*t from the past couple of years that quite frankly I can't take anymore. I feel like throwing something at my TV every time I see Salmons or Hayes taking Ross or Val's minutes.

Yes they're young, they're going to mess up and make mistakes but they need to be able to learn from it and grow as a result. Otherwise they're just being wasted and should be traded so they can actually be developed with a coach who actually can do his job.

Even if we managed to grab a top pick(as unlikely as it is), what's the point of getting someone like Wiggins or Parker or Randle or whoever if all they're going to do is rot on the bench. It's not like this is a new phenomenon, we saw this with Ed during Casey's first year. We saw it last year with Ross and Val, and now it's happening again.

If Casey is retained, I don't think I could stomach being a fan anymore.

With Leiweke, Drake and possible huge cap space, is LeBron in Toronto possible?

[QUOTE=kaiteng]With Leiweke, Drake and possible huge cap space, is LeBron in Toronto possible?[/QUOTE]

I wish. Looking at the roster, it could lure him since the team is young and has potential, but I don't think there's cap space if he asks more money, depending if he opts out of his contract.

[QUOTE=Legends66NBA7]I wish. Looking at the roster, it could lure him since the team is young and has potential, but I don't think there's cap space if he asks more money, depending if he opts out of his contract.[/QUOTE]
Many teams are setting things up for LeBron now. Bulls is clearly one. Cavs dumped Bynum for more than a reason also.

I might be possible if Raptors show that they are a real contender that is missing one superstar to get there. Raps can opt not to sign Lowry, if he is still around by the end of the season, for a big cap space and there is enough Leafs money to feed LeBron also.

[QUOTE=kaiteng]Many teams are setting things up for LeBron now. Bulls is clearly one. Cavs dumped Bynum for more than a reason also.

I might be possible if Raptors show that they are a real contender that is missing one superstar to get there. Raps can opt not to sign Lowry, if he is still around by the end of the season, for a big cap space and there is enough Leafs money to feed LeBron also.[/QUOTE]

If we don't sign Lowry, were going with Vasquez at the PG ? Wouldn't be idle, since James likes to be the main passer and scorer on the team. You would need to have a better spot up shooter and Lowry would be that guy. We could search better options if that's the case. I agree we need a superstar player, maybe even 2 or a very good player that fits on this team.

No doubt Raptors should have enough money to sign him if he does want more money, but obviously that wasn't the case before him when he signed with the Heat.

Why the hell would LeBron want to come to Canada and pay even more taxes?

[QUOTE=Prodigy]Why the hell would LeBron want to come to Canada and pay even more taxes?[/QUOTE]

Why would money even be a problem for him ?

[QUOTE=Legends66NBA7]Why would money even be a problem for him ?[/QUOTE]

If he wouldn't come for money then there is nothing here for him.

[QUOTE=Prodigy]If he wouldn't come for money then there is nothing here for him.[/QUOTE]
There is. Getting more championship rings.

[QUOTE=kaiteng]There is. Getting more championship rings.[/QUOTE]

With Rudy DeRozan over his own established Heat squad? Let's be real. Toronto is probably his 15th choice of teams to play for.

[QUOTE=Prodigy]With Rudy DeRozan over his own established Heat squad? Let's be real. Toronto is probably his 15th choice of teams to play for.[/QUOTE]
DeRozan can be LeBron's new Wade and Valanciunas can be LeBron's new Bosh.

[QUOTE=kaiteng]DeRozan can be LeBron's new Wade and Valanciunas can be LeBron's new Bosh.[/QUOTE]

Get it out of your head now... it wont happen.

1) Taxes is not the issue. New York Taxes verses Canada is a minor difference. Players have "taxes paid when andwhere they play. 41 games played in the USA. Plus USA tax credits for Canadian taxes paid in Canada over the rate in the USA. Non Issue. Player choose the Knicks or Lakers when taxes are lower in Florida and Texas. If taxes were even 5% responsible no one would ever play in Boston, New York, Toronto, LA, Portland, or Chicago.

2) Sponsorship. 1 local sponsorship in New York, Chicago, Miami, LA, Houston is more lucrative than being the entire Canadian spokeman for cold FX. Simple. Off court revenue exponentially higher in about 5 USA cities not to mention potential nationwide coverage of local deals.

3) Winning. All the teams that win championships with the minor exception of SanAn and the Pistons (10 years ago) all spend over the cap. The Raptors never spend over the cap. Enough said.

Super Elite super stars will come to Torotno (only) if and (only) when...
1) the team consistently challenges deep into playoffs i.e. SanAn et al
2) the team will be willing to load up and spend over the cap well in to the luxury tax for a couple of seasons to make that push. Review Chris Boshes comments as he left about the team spending and cap.

I am hopeful on 1.

I would be greatful for 2 (for a change) but you have to have 1 in place first. This core has "some promise" but is not yet there as evident by 3 losses to Celtics, Lakers, Bobcats... Maybe only an impact player away but still not there.

[QUOTE=Prodigy]If he wouldn't come for money then there is nothing here for him.[/QUOTE]

He never signed with the Heat for money.

[QUOTE=Legends66NBA7]He never signed with the Heat for money.[/QUOTE]

What are you trying to say? That Toronto is as lucrative as the Heat were back then? Why are we even still talking about this? There is no chance it is happening. There is a higher chance of all the other teams in the East having a resurgence and us ending up with a top 3 pick. Which at this point I'd give a 1% chance at most.

[QUOTE=Prodigy]What are you trying to say? That Toronto is as lucrative as the Heat were back then? Why are we even still talking about this? There is no chance it is happening. There is a higher chance of all the other teams in the East having a resurgence and us ending up with a top 3 pick. Which at this point I'd give a 1% chance at most.[/QUOTE]

I know he probably won't sign here. But the reasoning wouldn't be because of money.

So if we hadn't gotten rid of Bargs and Gay (both of who are now injured), we'd probably be well on our way to a top 3 pick right now. Interesting how that worked out.

Masai wasn't keeping Bargnani this season. That much was guaranteed. As for Gay, that's really on the Kings. They wanted Gay and forced the trade.

Both moves were also to clear cap space and give other players more playing with more potential. Let's see if he can string together some more deals/trades/signings for now.

If we kept Barges and Gay...

I dunno. If we kept Bryan Colangelo we would definitely have the number 1 pick locked up in time to move to Las Vagas ?

:cheers:

That statement is possibly meant as a "ponder" as opposed to slap at our current GM ?

As posted.. Barges had to be moved or face a fan revolt. Even if BC were still in charge Barges had to be moved. He was being booed by the home crowd every time he touched the ball. BC - MU - Big Liewki - someone had to make a deal to move Barges.

The Gay trade may have been salary cap fortune falling in our laps. I think if Gay hadnt been moved and the team was still as it started the season - [B]you can make a credible arguement that the team would have improved to "some degree" [/B] based on the ease of the schedule load and improvements in Klow which still might have happened.

I mean our front end sched was bad - known. That we would have a sting of games against suffering NY teams... who knew.

As much improvement ... I dont think so..

I am glad BC was gone because he invested in his own decisions for too long. Barges was here too long. He wouldnt have pulled the Gay trade trigger. But MU happens to be the right man at the right time doing smart things so credit due.