Who Wants to Make a Bet the Nets Make the Playoffs?

Looking at people's Eastern predictions, most don't have them in the playoffs. If you are one of those people and think you can make some money by standing behind your prediction, here is your chance.

Ask GOBB (if he's still here), but I've made bets before via Paypal before and am good for it (though I won the bet with him about the Sixers two years ago, he knew I was good). But are you? You have to be willing to make it worthwhile ($50 minimum, $100 ideally and I'd do up to $1000 overall between multiple bets) and be on here at least one year with over 1000 posts. Also, knowing you're not a troll helps. I am not into avatar bets or other cheesy non-money related bets.


To be fair, I will give me own preview of the Nets and perhaps there are takeaways that will make you think twice about making this bet or perhaps they will reinforce your belief they don't make the playoffs.

[B]NETS PREVIEW[/B]
(warning TL Most Won't R)

Even though the Nets didn't make the noise they did the last two off-seasons they still had a rather busy one. It started with the Kidd incident making news and then of course there were rumors they were looking to combine assets with the Dodgers (which we can expect more news about the next few months). In the meanwhile there was of course signings and losses.

As for their losses, the most notable ones are Paul Pierce, Shaun Livingston and Andre Blatche.

Their additions include Jarret Jack, Markel Brown, Sergey Karasev, Bojan Bogdanovic and Jerome Jordan looks likely to make the team.

[I]How should the losses impact the team?[/I]

Pierce should be the biggest loss for the team, but mostly because of his leadership. His play was inconsistent last year as he started off horribly and showed he might not be able to defend SFs anymore and thus they moved him to PF where he worked. But with him gone expect:

JJ to get more touches, especially in the crunch time situations as PP often tried to play hero ball. At this point JJ is the better player and more clutch. Their skills also overlapped and did not compliment each other.

Teletovic will take over the stretch PF role that PP had. Teletovic is the better shooter and rebounder who made a major leap last season. Expect him to build upon last year as Hollins has been praising his all around game and playing him big minutes.

Kirilenko to get more minutes. He was disappointing with how little he played last year and has let it be known with several jabs at Kidd and praise for Hollins. Looking much better so far in preseason and camp, expect a nice bounce back for a player who had his best season in years just 2 years ago in Minny. There was a reason other teams wanted his signing investigated.

D.Williams to handle the ball more as Pierce being the play-maker he is took the ball away from D.Will. D.Will is another player who looks in much better shape this year, saying he feels much better than last year after finally having both ankles cleaned out in a rather routine procedure. I would much rather have the ball in D.Will's hands than Pierce's. D.Will is not the type of PG that should be relegated to a spot up shooter in the half court.


The next biggest loss will be Shaun Livingston.
He was the best perimeter defender we had last season and when inserted as a starter the team played well. But... come playoff time, his defense fell off a cliff as Derozen torched him after game 1. It was once Alan Anderson was inserted down 2-3 that the Nets were able to come back and beat Toronto. His minutes at PG will go to Jarret Jack who is a much better shooter than Livingston and already looks to run the second unit better as Livingston was surprisingly poor running the second team. His minutes at SG will go to Alan Anderson and Bojan Bogdanovic. Anderson is close to the defender Livingston is but actually has a 3 point shot. Bogdanovic will probably struggle as he learns NBA defense, but he's a very versatile offensive player.

Andray Blatche was another key member of last year's team, but there was a reason no NBA team wanted to take a chance on a player with great size, offensive talent, rebounding skills and a top 15 PER. His minutes will go to Lopez, who is back healthy and a far better player, as well as Plumlee and KG at C. Blatche did not play PF much last year.

As for their additions...

I don't expect much from the young guys (Brown, Karasev, Jefferson if he makes the team) but I do expect a good year from Bogdanovic who is older than most rookies, very experienced with big games and was one of the top players in FIBA nearly leading a comeback against France by himself that just fell short. His IQ his sky high and his ability to score (shoot, drive, post up and get to the line). Also, if there are injuries up front, I expect Jerome Jordan to be able to step in and play. He's got major size and can rebound and block shots. At 27, this may be one of his last chances so I expect him to make the most of this.

Jarret Jack will also be a nice addition to the team. His shot has looked fantastic and he's been playing well with the second unit and pushing the pace. Livingston was surprisingly ineffective with the bench and we know he's not a shooter. His forte was scoring in the post, but with so many post options, including guards like D.Will and JJ, I don't think that will be missed much. His main advantage was his defense on the wings, which will be missed.

But the real additions are healthy players.

D.Will I've mentioned, but the coaches have been raving about his play and return to form. He says he's 80% there, but the rest should come with playing time. Healthy D.Will is a much better player than one playing on two injured ankles. The talent is still there and why he was in the conversation for the best PG in the league along with Paul for so long. I don't expect him to reenter that discussion nor do I expect people to acknowledge the improved play as most don't like him or his contract, but I do expect an improved D.Will averaging around 18/9.

Lopez is back healthy and back to dominating the inside on offense. When healthy only Jefferson and Cousins can compare offensively. Defensively he made major leaps before going down last year as he was leading the league in holding opponents to sub 40% shooting in the paint while blocking a couple shots per game. His rebounding and pick and roll D needs to improve, but he's only 26 and improved every year he's been in the league despite all the injuries and 7 different coaches. I can only imagine how much better he would be had he stayed healthy and had some consistency around him.

Garnett looks to be much more prepared than last year when he admittedly didn't touch a basketball all summer. He's been hitting his jumper and his defense is still top notch. Many don't know he was leading the league in defensive rebound rate last year had he played enough minutes. Already Hollins has said there will not be minute restrictions on him, though I still don't expect him to play more than 20-25 minutes a night.

Kirilenko has said he was not happy with his minutes or his play last year. He wants to prove he still has it and so far he's looked like the AK of two years ago in Minny where he was filling up the stat sheet. I think it's his new haircut and the fact Kidd is gone. He also wants to be a mentor to fellow Russian Karasev who the Nets insisted be in the Jack trade. Let's not forget Karasev was one of 14 players invited to the green room last year as he was expected to go in the lotto.

As for injuries, this team has the depth to survive most injuries. IMO they cannot withstand extensive injuries to two players: Deron Williams as Jack isn't a full time starter and the team was much better with Williams on the court last year as he had the best +/- on the team by far. The other player they cannot withstand and injury to is Joe Johnson. He is by far their best wing and their most clutch player. Fortunately JJ has been an ironman most of his career. As for another injury to Lopez they do have Plumlee to put in (team was 16-6 when he started last year) and KG. But Lopez did have foot reconstruction which is supposed to lower his chances of breaking his foot again, and is the same procedure that allowed Ilguaskas to come back and average 70 games a season the last 10 years of his career.

[B]
OFFENSE[/B]
Expect this team to be a good offensive team.
They are going to excel at two things in particular:
Post play - where D.Will, JJ, Teletovic, Plumlee, Lopez are all capable of posting up and scoring inside. Even Plumlee has been showing off his development with sky hooks and post moves. Expect them to be near the top with points in the paint.

Three point shooting - D.Will, JJ, Teletovic, Jack, Bogdanovic, Karasev, Anderson. The team is loaded with shooters including KG who doesn't have 3 point range but very close as he can spread the floor.

Do not expect:
Transition points - this is not a quick or athletic team. They will struggle to score in transition and probably will not get many points from slashing to the rim either.


[B]DEFENSE[/B]
Hollins' is known for his defensive schemes, but the Nets are not known for having defensive players.. but neither were Gasol or Randolph before Hollins got there. While I don't expect them to be a top defensive team, I think they will be average, which for this team would be a nice achievement.

They should be good defending the paint with the size and length they have in KG, Lopez and Plumlee.

They will probably struggle guarding the perimeter though as they lack speed and athleticism. Johnson was pretty good defensively last year as was Anderson, but they still struggled guarding the 3. D.Williams has been inconsistent defensively as well and I think faster point guards could really hurt the team as well.

But, their biggest weakness will be rebounding as both King and Hollins have admitted. If KG is playing better than last year and AK and Lopez stay healthy (Lopez is very good at boxing out thanks to his size and the team rebounds better with him on the court), they should keep pace with most opponents. So far they narrowly out-rebounded Maccabi and the Kings.


[B]DEPTH CHART[/B]
How I see the minutes shaking out when healthy in the regular season.

D.Williams (30) / Jack (18)
Bogdanovic (18) / A.Anderson (18) / JJ (8) / Jack (4)
Johnson (24) / Kirilenko (24)
Garnett (20 / Teletovic (24) / Plumlee (4)
Lopez (28) / Plumlee (20)

Overall:
J.Johnson - 32
D.Williams - 30
Lopez - 28
Teletovic - 24
Plumlee - 24
Kirilenko - 24
Jack - 22
Garnett - 20
Bogdanovic - 18
Anderson - 18

M.Teague- DNP
M.Brown - DNP
Karasev - DNP
C.Jefferson - DNP
J.Jordan - DNP

I might be a little low on D.Will and Lopez, but I'm hoping Hollins takes it easy on both as they get back into game shape and try their best to remain healthy. But their minutes are still pretty close to last year. The main key will be getting more minutes for Plumlee, AK and Teletovic.


[B]PREDICTION:[/B]

The big 3 of the team is still in tact from 2 years ago (D.Will, JJ, Lopez). I like to refer to that team as opposed to last year's team since Hollins will play much closer to Avery/PJC than Kidd and there were many gimmicky things Kidd did, that I know Hollins won't. Hollins like physical post play, while Kidd wanted the team to push the pace and play a perimeter oriented style. Kidd also was fine with small ball, which I can't see Hollins doing. Already we've seen a line up with Bogdanovic (6'8") / AK (6'9") / Plumlee (7'1") / Lopez (7'2") with both Jack and Deron.

That team of two years ago won 49 games despite Wallace and Evans the starting forwards. This team has more talent at SF, PF and on the bench. It is also a better coached team with more experience and better chemistry. Already there is a different feel to camp. Players seem much happier under Hollins than Kidd and seem to get along much better. There were rumors Pierce didn't like D.Williams and PP and KG weren't exactly thrilled to be traded from Boston. Blatche was also a bit of a distraction with his immaturity and issues.

[I]How many games can this team win?[/I]
Worst case, injuries kick in, but I still think the team has too much depth and talent to be a sub .500 team unless the injuries are extensive, especially to D.Will and/or JJ.

Best case, the team stays healthy and puts up a good fight with Toronto for the Atlantic division.

Thus I'm thinking 45-50 wins which could be good for anywhere from the 3 seed if they win the division to the 6th or 7th seed.

Playoffs?
Since the playoffs are all about match-ups, I'm not one to try to predict how far a team can go in the playoffs. I will say I like how we match up with most teams in the East other than Cleveland and Chicago. Their half court style and post play will be a nice advantage come playoff time.

Teams I really don't worry about in the standings:
Atlanta - sure this team was the #3 seed before Horford went down, but they were feasting on a pathetic East as Charlotte, Brooklyn, Toronto, Chicago and Washington were all well under .500 well into the season. Horford still isn't back playing yet either and they did not do much to improve this off-season. They cannot withstand an injury to any of Teague, Millsap or Horford.

Miami - after LBJ left Cleveland the first time they went from 63 wins to 19. While Miami has more talent they still are going to be demoralized and be left with a roster of players that were meant to fit around Lebron. They also have lost almost all their 3 point shooting, starting with M.Miller last summer and J.Jones, Allen, Lewis, Mason Jr, LBJ, etc. since then. They are below average at most every position other than SG and C. McRoberts is a 27 year old journey man who only come into his own in a great system for him in a contract year, Granger has looked done for a couple years, while Deng did nothing to help Cleveland while the Bulls did better without him. Andersen is losing his athleticism, Haslem is done and they have no real depth behind Wade who is injury prone and not the player he once was. To top it off, their PG position is pretty bad.

NY - the team is a mess and doesn't seem to be learning the triangle, which was only run efficiently by Phil himself. Rambis failed miserably at it in Minny and Shaw hasn't had much success in Denver either. Fisher is a rookie coach who will take time to learn his job, much like Kidd did. As for their roster I see Melo and a bunch of junk besides Hardaway and Smith. Their big men are among the worst in the NBA. IMO this is a retooling year for them as they look forward to the draft and free agency. Whether they know it/will admit is another question.

I see them in the same tier as Washington, Toronto and Charlotte and comfortably ahead on Indy, Detroit and the bottom feeders in the East. As for the division, I still like Toronto to take it, but I think it will be close. Toronto has great depth and is made for the regular season.

[QUOTE=ChuckOakley]You have to be willing to make it worthwhile ($50 minimum, $100 ideally and I'd do up to [B]$1000[/B] overall between multiple bets) and be on here at least one year with over 1000 posts. Also, knowing you're not a troll helps. I am not into avatar bets or other cheesy non-money related bets.[/QUOTE]



[IMG]http://www.troll.me/images/winter-is-coming/brace-yourself-shit-just-got-real.jpg[/IMG]

As a Nets disliker, I see them making the playoffs. OP, who is saying they won't?

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater][IMG]http://www.troll.me/images/winter-is-coming/brace-yourself-shit-just-got-real.jpg[/IMG][/QUOTE]
Meh... $100 bucks isn't much and if I make that bet with 10 different posters, I'll be happy. It will be better than $1000 I spent on bitcoin earlier this year.

[QUOTE=imdaman99]As a Nets disliker, I see them making the playoffs. OP, who is saying they won't?[/QUOTE]
Looking at the stickied Eastern Conference Predictions thread, I'd say 75% of the posters don't. I could call them out specifically, but hopefully they are man enough to step into this thread.

Cavs
Bulls
Raptors
Wizards
Hornets
Hawks
Heat


last spot...Nets or Knicks

I'm gonna give it to the Nets i guess

Papaya Petee
Sakkreth
chips93
poido123
Real14
SamuraiSWISH
T_L_P
alenleomessi

Some of the names from the predictions thread. Others would stop at 3 or 6 and not list the rest. Who's willing to back up their predicitons?

[QUOTE=ChuckOakley]Papaya Petee
Sakkreth
chips93
poido123
Real14
SamuraiSWISH
T_L_P
alenleomessi

Some of the names from the predictions thread. Others would stop at 3 or 6 and not list the rest. Who's willing to back up their predicitons?[/QUOTE]

Leave Real14 out of there, I don't think he has that kind of Money.

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater]Leave Real14 out of there, I don't think he has that kind of Money.[/QUOTE]
Niguh I probaly have more money than your dumbass:coleman:

[QUOTE=Real14]Niguh I probaly have more money than your dumbass:coleman:[/QUOTE]
I'll let my 1 year rule slide if you want since you have a lot of posts and positive rep. Want in?

Did I just read this right $1000? I penciled in the Nets in for the playoffs but good luck collecting from the same posters that disappear when a game lose hurts their agenda. :roll:

[QUOTE=Duderonomy]Did I just read this right $1000? I penciled in the Nets in for the playoffs but good luck collecting from the same posters that disappear when a game lose hurts their agenda. :roll:[/QUOTE]
I'm not expecting one poster to drop that much.
I was more thinking 10 $100 bets.
I'm just saying what my limit is overall.

[QUOTE=ChuckOakley]I'll let my 1 year rule slide if you want since you have a lot of posts and positive rep. Want in?[/QUOTE]

"positive rep" :oldlol:

That dude is FreshKid... Dude was just on 4 red bars but got into green because negging was diabled again. One of the biggest trolls ever, he'd never pay... Hell, he can't. Make him wash your dishes.

[QUOTE=ArbitraryWater]"positive rep" :oldlol:

That dude is FreshKid... Dude was just on 4 red bars but got into green because negging was diabled again. One of the biggest trolls ever, he'd never pay... Hell, he can't. Make him wash your dishes.[/QUOTE]
Oh NVM that Freshkid was a flat out troll. Thanks for the warning.

That's a stupid fkin bet. Every sports book has the net over under total wins between 41-42 wins for the season, when the 8th seed in the east has historically been under .500 for over a decade. Why wouldn't someone just bet the under on total wins?

Your line would have to be nets to miss playoffs at like +140 to be worth a damn. So stop trying to act like a big shot when you're offering -EV wagers.

OP. Better get an escrow account first. I don't think people will pay if you win.

[QUOTE=macmac]That's a stupid fkin bet. Every sports book has the net over under total wins between 41-42 wins for the season, when the 8th seed in the east has historically been under .500 for over a decade. Why wouldn't someone just bet the under on total wins?

Your line would have to be nets to miss playoffs at like +140 to be worth a damn. So stop trying to act like a big shot when you're offering -EV wagers.[/QUOTE]
Except I'm not making a Vegas bet, I'm offering to make a bet with posters on here, many of which say the Nets won't make the playoffs. It's up to them to make the bet if they want.

[QUOTE=NugzFan]OP. Better get an escrow account first. I don't think people will pay if you win.[/QUOTE]
That's why I want to screen the applicant some.
Ideally, a trusted poster or mod would hold the money on both sides and pay out at the end.

[QUOTE=ChuckOakley]That's why I want to screen the applicant some.
Ideally, a trusted poster or mod would hold the money on both sides and pay out at the end.[/QUOTE]

Even if they have 10000 posts over 5 years id get an escrow account.

[QUOTE=ChuckOakley]Except I'm not making a Vegas bet, I'm offering to make a bet with posters on here, many of which say the Nets won't make the playoffs. It's up to them to make the bet if they want.[/QUOTE]


Sure and I'm just here to let people know it's a suckers bet and they can get better bang for their buck on any sports book online or with their neighbourhood bookie.

[QUOTE=macmac]Sure and I'm just here to let people know it's a suckers bet and they can get better bang for their buck on any sports book online or with their neighbourhood bookie.[/QUOTE]
That's up to them. I'm singling out those who specifically say the Nets will not make it. Meanwhile their win total put them at the 7 seed just ahead of Atlanta and NY, so it's not exactly a sure thing they make the playoffs.

[QUOTE=ChuckOakley]Oh NVM that Freshkid was a flat out troll. Thanks for the warning.[/QUOTE]
I'm not a troll I just speak truth a lot. Arbitrarywater is a known troll who bandwags on lebrons sack.