Now that Harris has done interviews, Trump appears to be the favorite at the moment

[url]https://polymarket.com/elections[/url]

[url]https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college[/url]

Me back in August

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14932952]Might be a fluke rise in the polls. The same thing happened to McCain when he announced Sarah Palin as his VP, it temporarily helped his polls numbers, but then the public got to know her. I think Kamala will suffer a similar fate.[/QUOTE]


[IMG]https://media.tenor.com/1hlTNcVLVS4AAAAM/jordan-shrug.gif[/IMG]

It's laughable to think Kamala HAD, not has, but HAD any chance of beating Trump. Trump 2024 is the real deal.


[IMG]https://media.tenor.com/Sin0DOO2uMcAAAAM/trump-trump-dance.gif[/IMG]

[QUOTE=Patrick Chewing;14947271]It's laughable to think Kamala HAD, not has, but HAD any chance of beating Trump. Trump 2024 is the real deal.


[IMG]https://media.tenor.com/Sin0DOO2uMcAAAAM/trump-trump-dance.gif[/IMG][/QUOTE]

you'd be surprised at how much impact liberal media and celebrity endorsements can have on the npc masses. i mean, hillary clinton almost won the presidency riding the "i'm a clinton and i'm a woman - what more do i need to offer you?" wave. ffs, a feeble old man that can't tell up from down is our commander in chief.

[QUOTE=diamenz;14947276]you'd be surprised at how much impact liberal media and celebrity endorsements can have on the npc masses. i mean, hillary clinton almost won the presidency riding the "i'm a clinton and i'm a woman - what more do i need to offer you?" wave. ffs, a feeble old man that can't tell up from down is our commander in chief.[/QUOTE]

It was different. She was coming off of Obama. In the end, people low key disliked Obama enough to get Trump in, but she also got a huge boost off of that. They are trying to do some of the same BS that they did, but people who are saying Kammy is a better candidate than Hillary are probably young. Hillary was set to run and she would have beaten anyone else but Trump; Trump got boosted by the media (and he still does, imagine 10 years of people hanging on your every word,) but Hillary was all set start to finish. She bodies any other republican. It wasn't a 5050 election like this is supposed to be.

Sure, she lost, and that causes people to rethink what actually happened. In the end, it's probably people hoping Kamala will win who are saying that she is the better candidate. Hillary had a lot more going for her, though. She had that woman's power shit before. She was even able to leverage Bill Clinton being a pervert to her own advantage. Like she sidestepped 'the man' and was gonna break the glass ceiling.

Crazy shit happens, but it's hard to see how Kamala doesn't crash and burn. I'm sure there are a lot of things they are going to do to try to get her in, but haha...

One cannot ignore the fact that v Hillary and v Biden, Trump was getting less of the percentage of the vote. He is somehow on the uptick even after Jan6th. I legit will never understand why that dude didn't come out and be like yeahhhh my bad. There were so many ways he could have spun it. I legit think that him not doing that will be the reason he loses if he does. That's the only thing people really have on him that compares to the abomination that Kamala is.

-Smak

OP is 5'4

If Kamalluh camp felt comfortable right now, Obama wouldn't be leaving beautiful Hawaii to fly in and campaign for her in key swing states.

This dude ain't got better shit to do?

[url]https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-2024-election-democrats-e7d7fa00961acbfdcb3abd0adbc34010[/url]

[QUOTE=Hey Yo;14947311]If Kamalluh camp felt comfortable right now, Obama wouldn't be leaving beautiful Hawaii to fly in and campaign for her in key swing states.

This dude ain't got better shit to do?

[url]https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-2024-election-democrats-e7d7fa00961acbfdcb3abd0adbc34010[/url][/QUOTE]

When he's not busy killing his own personal chef or getting pegged by Michelle, he's out on the campaign trail for a terrible candidate.

Harris is still the favorite to win :confusedshrug:

[url]https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president[/url]

Honestly though being 51/49 favorite for either of these candidates doesn't mean much, that is still a virtual coin flip. Both have a clear chance at winning.

[QUOTE=Off the Court;14947316]Harris is still the favorite to win :confusedshrug:

[url]https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president[/url]

Honestly though being 51/49 favorite for either of these candidates doesn't mean much, that is still a virtual coin flip. Both have a clear chance at winning.[/QUOTE]

Hilarious that the Trumpers here are already doing their victory lap :lol

As it stands, both absolutely have a shot at this...for Trump, is there still a secret Trump vote? He has previously over performed the polls (2016, 2020), even if his over performance is a mere percentage point, that could be enough to flip one or more of the Blue Wall states that he needs to reach 270, or have pollsters made the adjustments having two previous national elections that his over performance are already weighed in?

For Harris...win all 3 Blue Wall states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) that Sleepy Joe won in '20, Biden was still competitive in these states when he dropped out, as ridiculous as it sounds. Harris Walz have expanded the Democrats pathways putting Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia in play, that's a huge difference. And about about the Blue Wall states, Harris has home field advantage, as they are historically Democratic leaning, just as Trump has the HFA in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. Harder to flip in other words..

I don't believe any of the two campaigns should feel overly confident as there are variables that can flip this election either way.

Having said that, I agree with ILLsmak, if Trump would have kept his ego in check and conceded defeat without looking like a big whiney baby, I think he would be running away with this, he gives the Democrats who say he's a danger ro democracy plenty of ammo and if he does in fact lose, that will be one of the main reasons.

[QUOTE=Off the Court;14947316]Harris is still the favorite to win :confusedshrug:

[url]https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president[/url]

Honestly though being 51/49 favorite for either of these candidates doesn't mean much, that is still a virtual coin flip. Both have a clear chance at winning.[/QUOTE]

Things are trending towards Trump, just look at your link again. :lol

Even Trump's lead is widening a bit in the first link in my OP.

All swing states are slowly moving towards Trump.

And we all know Trump has outperformed his poll numbers by a significant amount in previous times he has ran.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14947494]Things are trending towards Trump, just look at your link again. :lol

Even Trump's lead is widening a bit in the first link in my OP.

All swing states are slowly moving towards Trump.

And we all know Trump has outperformed his poll numbers by a significant amount in previous times he has ran.[/QUOTE]

Okay but, my entire point was that having a 51/49 Vegas odds edge means little to nothing. I mean you clearly have your hopes up as though that 1 percentage point means Trump will win, but the reality is that the gamblers are saying this is a virtual coin flip.

If the odds were shifting 75/25 or even 60/40 then okay, that is a clear lead. But these two have been teetering over tiny amounts.

Also the major pollsters claim to have adjusted their systems to fit the mishaps of 2020 and 2016. I don't trust that is actually the case, but FWIW that is what they are claiming.

Michigan is looking crazy. This state was an easy victory for Harris, but now it's a coin flip. It was at 68% chance of victory for Harris just 10 days ago, now it's at 52% for Harris. If Harris loses this state, it's basically over.

[video=youtube;ROX4IyD6hvw]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROX4IyD6hvw[/video]

[QUOTE=Off the Court;14947507]Okay but, my entire point was that having a 51/49 Vegas odds edge means little to nothing.[/QUOTE]

Your link doesn't have it at 51/49 anymore.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14947513]Your link doesn't have it at 51/49 anymore.[/QUOTE]

right it's at 50/50

which is virtually the same as 51/49

my point



like if either candidate is ahead 51/49, Trump or Kamala, it doesn't really mean a whole lot. Get it?

If those were sports teams that played 100 times, one would win 51 times and the other would win 49 times. That is what Vegas is saying.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14947509]Michigan is looking crazy. This state was an easy victory for Harris, but now it's a coin flip. It was at 68% chance of victory for Harris just 10 days ago, now it's at 52% for Harris. If Harris loses this state, it's basically over.

[video=youtube;ROX4IyD6hvw]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROX4IyD6hvw[/video][/QUOTE]

He's not flipping Michigan, if he flips a Blue Wall state, it's more likely gonna be Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. If he flips Michigan, that means his odds of winning all 3 BWSs are huge and that's just not happening with how close this election is, it would be the equivalent of the Democrats taking all the Sun Belt states, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, and that ain't happening.

Polls only tell you so much and it's a snapshot of the race at that particular moment, not what will happen on election day. The most accurate polls are the ones days ahead of the election...and as I've said many times, it's a close race and it's gonna come down to who turns out their base along with whom the independents break towards to...in short, Trump's ace is that hidden Trump vote, Harris is higher turnout means that people who don't usually vote are voting and that favors the Democrats.

One of the issues in 2016 and 2020 is that most pollsters didn't adjust for education levels. There were high numbers of college grads polled, and not many blue-collar. So that is why polls leaned heavy Clinton. Lots of mobile home types came out to vote and the pollsters didn't foresee that.

Supposedly they are now aware and have adjusted. And I think we saw that during midterms where the polls leaned too far right.

I've said it before, but I feel like the polls have been very unreliable the past 10 years or so. In 2016 Hillary was the clear favorite the entire race and lost, 2020 Biden was supposed to win comfortably but ending up winning a close race, 2022 was supposed to be a red wave and the Republicans badly underperformed.

It does feel like this race is going to be a coinflip, but the polls have been off their game for quite a while.

[QUOTE=SouBeachTalents;14947545]I've said it before, but I feel like the polls have been very unreliable the past 10 years or so. In 2016 Hillary was the clear favorite the entire race and lost, 2020 Biden was supposed to win comfortably but ending up winning a close race, 2022 was supposed to be a red wave and the Republicans badly underperformed.

It does feel like this race is going to be a coinflip, but the polls have been off their game for quite a while.[/QUOTE]

538 claims that the way they have weighted everything currently would have produced a perfect outcome for 2020.

I am definitely skeptical though.

I am hoping that what happened during midterms is that they actually over-corrected.

It’s just irrational to think they can have a rolling poll that ends up being more right closer to the election.

They seem good for measuring trends though, but that’s assuming they are trying to poll correctly which even if you think most are, you have to concede some aren’t. It’s like oh that’s a d poll or an r poll, why would that matter??

I think Trump has the majority chance to win atm but he could lose. It just takes a little shift.

-Smak

[QUOTE=Off the Court;14947516]right it's at 50/50[/QUOTE]

Trump now up over 3 points in the link you originally posted saying Harris was still the favorite.

Ouch.

The more Trump babbles incoherently, MAGAS think this increases his poll numbers with the non-hillbilly vote.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14947602]Trump now up over 3 points in the link you originally posted saying Harris was still the favorite.

Ouch.[/QUOTE]

It's baffling that you claim that the more Harris speaks, the less likely she is of winning when to anyone with a brain and a little bit of intelligence would be insulted with the amount of stupid shit Trump says and gets away with. Can you come up with anything that Harris has said that is as idiotic and untruthful as illegal immigrants are eating American's cats and dogs? And that's just his latest insane shit he's spouted, how about nuking hurricanes? I dare you to find something Harris has said that is on that level of stupidity.

I don't even like Harris and I don't like defending her but the amount of idiotic shit Trump gets away with is really pathetic and sad, we are definitely in full blown decadence mode with the amount of morons like you who give Trump a pass while taking Harris to task for the lesser dumb shit she says.

And I can mention a bunch more moronic shit that Trump has said off the top of my head, like shining a flashlight inside your body or ingesting clorox to combat covid :roll:

Yo on 60s minutes they got her answers cut while the interviewer explains what she said haha. What a joke!

-Smak

here is what happens to Tariff's and tax benefits - [url]https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/chart-of-the-day-who-would-benefit-from-trump-s-tax-and-tariff-plans/ar-AA1rR2Fb[/url]

Tell me how this helps you ??

[QUOTE=ILLsmak;14947680]Yo on 60s minutes they got her answers cut while the interviewer explains what she said haha. What a joke!

-Smak[/QUOTE]

I saw this too. :oldlol:

tell me how taking from poor to divert to money (155 million for disaster relief ) goes to immigration ??

[url]https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/george-conway-sums-up-a-donald-trump-tactic-with-2-words-from-adolf-hitler/ar-AA1rOtSg?cvid=47226d23db624fb1f7416fa7988e9e1c&ei=11[/url]

How does that help disaster relief and the poor ???

[QUOTE=ILLsmak;14947680]Yo on 60s minutes they got her answers cut while the interviewer explains what she said haha. What a joke!

-Smak[/QUOTE]

She was asked 3x about the amount of illegals quadrupling on her watch since getting in the White house... and we get this.

[url]https://x.com/ClayTravis/status/1843449294008836567?t=LuSfdPwpTnZjReYxVIiWDg&s=19[/url]

She showing the world what most already knew.... not qualified in the least bit to run this country

When asked about all her flip-flopping

[url]https://x.com/ClayTravis/status/1843448204505034900?t=sfEUbIhhw3Q6oAAlgLoc_A&s=19[/url]

Huh??? :roll:

Only in the right-wing media does Trump appear the favorite.

[video]https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTF5MAfBK/[/video]
So much out there, we've become immune to his endless stupidity, that has to be the explanation.

[QUOTE=TheMan;14947528]He's not flipping Michigan[/QUOTE]

Polls have him taking Michigan now.

Colbert's interview with Kamala - this is AFTER The View interview and here's her answer to a similar question - she goes off into her "aspirations and dreams/love our small business" spiel - smh

[video=youtube;6eZw3GzmPGc]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eZw3GzmPGc[/video]

And she STILL doesn't understand what a $50k tax DEDUCTION is - you'd think someone would clue her in.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14948185]Polls have him taking Michigan now.[/QUOTE]

A lot of these people are in denial. The pulse on the streets is definitely in favor of Trump.

[QUOTE=1987_Lakers;14948185]Polls have him taking Michigan now.[/QUOTE]

Doesn't mean anything today, election day ain't today, just like Harris was up a week ago, election day wasn't a week ago...keep up.

[QUOTE=TheMan;14948230]Doesn't mean anything today, election day ain't today, just like Harris was up a week ago, election day wasn't a week ago...keep up.[/QUOTE]

shook

[QUOTE=Patrick Chewing;14948206]A lot of these people are in denial. The pulse on the streets is definitely in favor of Trump.[/QUOTE]

This thing can go either way, I've been saying this forever. The main reason I think she'll win is turnout, I think turnout will be huge, historically favors the Dems, If I'm wrong on turnout, then Trump def has the advantage, but as I was telling 1987_Lakers, it doesn't really matter a month out who's winning in the polls, the polls closest to election day tend to be the most accurate.

[QUOTE=Hey Yo;14948232]shook[/QUOTE]

Lol

[QUOTE=TheMan;14948233]This thing can go either way, I've been saying this forever. The main reason I think she'll win is turnout, I think turnout will be huge, historically favors the Dems, If I'm wrong on turnout, then Trump def has the advantage, but as I was telling 1987_Lakers, it doesn't really matter a month out who's winning in the polls, the polls closest to election day tend to be the most accurate.[/QUOTE]

I don't see how you can say turnout will be huge when Kamala was the least liked Democrat nominee in the 2020 primaries. She polled at 3%! She wasn't elected to run in 2024, so I honestly don't know how in the world you think that the turnout will be huge for a candidate who is not very liked within her own party.

There might be an increase in turnout, but for Donald Trump. There is no way Kamala comes close to the amount of votes that Joe Biden got in 2020. She will lose.