How much is Josh Giddey worth?

Kuminga, Grimes, Thomas, and Giddey are all still without a new contract. I think Josh has the most upside of these players based on his play during the last 40% of the 2024-25 NBA RS. But he doesn't have leverage; he wants 30M/y like Suggs, but CHI is reportedly offering 8M less.

What is he worth, and should any teams try to steal him away? I think he could fit well in PHX for the right price.

The best arguments for Giddey as a player:

a) age (23 for the 2025-26 NBA season)
b) upside and skill development (shooting, foul-drawing) shown during 2024-25 Post All-Star break & last 31 games, after LaVine trade/role expansion
c) synergy with off-ball scorers

A 22 y/o who flirted with a near 20-point triple-double for 31 games with positive TS+/above league average TS%. Who plays hard & has shown consistent yearly improvements. Surely there could be some decent upside? But what's the gamble worth?

[B]Josh Giddey Post All-Star Break (19 games)[/B]

[U]Box score and advanced stats[/U]

- 34.3 mpg (651 minutes total)
- 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg (2.4 orb), 9.3 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.4 topg
- 50.0% FG (14.5 fga/g), 45.7% 3PT (4.3 3pa/g), 51.8% 2PT (10.3 2pa/g), 80.9% FT (5.8 fta/g; 40.0% FTr; 56.3% 2pt-FTr), 62.0% TS (+4.4 rTS; 108 TS+)
- 7.7 ORB%, 25.0 DRB%, 16.8 TRB%, 37.7 AST%, 2.0 STL%, 1.9 BLK%, 16.5 TOV%, 24.9 USG%, 126 ORtg, 110 DRtg, 22.0 GmSc, +7.6 BPM
- +137 (+7.2/g)

[U]Second Spectrum tracking[/U]

Catch-and-shoot: 46.7% 3PT on 3.2 3pa/g
Pull-up: 44.4% 3PT on 0.9 3pa/g
Drives: 51.3% FG (5.9 fga/g), 78.0% FT (2.6 fta/g; 44.1% FTr), 60.34% TS, 8.5 ppg, 1.06 ppp, 1.9 apg (11.8 AST%), 0.9 topg (5.6 TOV%), estimated 1.64 ppp with passes added, on 16.0 drives/g
Defense: 46.8% DFG (-0.3) on 16.6 DFGA/g; <6 feet: 51.4% DFG (-11.5) on 5.7 DFGA/g; <10 feet: 51.3% DFG (-7.0) on 8.0 DFGA/g

--

The three-point shooting and foul drawing are by far the most impressive and promising skill developments. You wonder just how real these numbers are. For a larger sample size, that three-point shooting holds up at 43.8% 3PT on 4.4 3pa/g over 31 games and 42.9% 3PT on 4.0 3pa over 40 games. And the FTr was doubled year-on-year across the entire season. It was getting close to triple toward the end.

He played really well. I was surprised at the lack of discussion from the media and content creators. Deni Avdija, Quentin Grimes, and Coby White were talked about way more, and I think Josh actually played better than all of them while being the youngest. Josh's post All-Star +7.6 BPM is ridiculously high and clears Deni's +5.3, Quentin's +1.0, and Coby's +0.9.

And that TS% understates because Josh gets a lot of z-bounds (rebounding own unblocked misses). 33 z-bounds in 70 games on the season, which is a 9.3% z-bound percentage. In other words, he rebounds 9.3% of his own missed unblocked FGAs. His season average true shooting percentage rises from 56.7% TS (-0.8 rTS [67th percentile]) to 58.9% selfORB adjusted TS (+0.3 selfORB adjusted rTS [78th percentile]).

Also has a high grenade percentage (7%), ranking in the 92nd percentile. A grenade is when a teammate throws you a pass late in the shot clock, forcing you to take a tough shot. He has a 44.0% eFG on these shots - 75th percentile.

[B]Post All-Star Break Small Sample Size[/B]

We can extend things out to 1/20/2025 for a 31-game sample. 18.9 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 7.9 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.1 topg on 61.5% TS and +5.6 BPM. Rebounding, steal, and block rates all remain consistent. The minutes per game, assist rate, and usage rate continued to climb as LaVine was traded and Giddey's role increased.

He's been around these general numbers in the past for OKC. He had a stretch where he did 19/8/7 when Shai was injured during the 2023-24 season. Same strong runs in his sophomore and rookie seasons. The difference now is a noticeable increase in scoring rate and efficiency due to development in three-point shooting and foul drawing.

It's hard to know just how sustainable these new skill improvements are. There's enough there to be confident for me. Assuming the same role and supporting cast next season, I'd expect Josh to be flirting with a 20-point triple-double average with TS% at or slightly above league average. Within 1-2 counting stats, I'd say. I think that's a healthy, educated estimate based on all the evidence.

[B]Synergy With Off-Ball Scorers[/B]

Zach Collins with Josh Giddey (248 minutes): 17.4 points, 3.8 FTA, 86.2% at the rim, 34.4% 3PT, 67.3% TS.
Zach Collins without Josh Giddey (304 minutes): 14.0 points, 2.0 FTA, 65.8% at the rim, 25.0% 3PT, 60.2% TS.

Kevin Huerter with Josh Giddey (417 minutes): 15.1 points, 0.5 FTA, 75.0% at the rim, 38.9% 3PT, 59.7% TS.
Kevin Huerter without Josh Giddey (363 minutes): 16.0 points, 1.5 FTA, 75.0% at the rim, 36.3% 3PT, 53.4% TS.

Nikola Vucevic with Josh Giddey (1,429 minutes): 21.3 points, 2.2 FTA, 66.3% at the rim, 41.9% 3PT, 63.1% TS.
Nikola Vucevic without Josh Giddey (849 minutes): 19.9 points, 2.5 FTA, 65.7% at the rim, 36.9% 3PT, 57.8% TS.

Matas Buzelis and Coby White's TS% also goes up with Josh, which is to be expected. Points and free throws are per 75 possessions.

The question to be answered before any of that is addressed is whether or not any other team has 30 mil in cap space and is willing to spend that money on his services? Because it looks like the answer is "no." If he wants that kind of payday he may have to take a one year deal somewhere and have a star season because right now it doesn't look like anyone is trying to give him 30 per. He might be worth that but no one can offer it without doing a sign and trade and if anyone pulled that off they would have to do it in a way that the Bulls would want to participate. So he's actually got to be even more valuable than"just" 30 mil per year. That's also likely why Chicago is not going to offer him 30 per, there is no one they have to bid against at that range.

these guys all got ****ed by the new cba

2yrs $40mil player option year 2.

[QUOTE=Real Men Wear Green;15025442]The question to be answered before any of that is addressed is whether or not any other team has 30 mil in cap space and is willing to spend that money on his services? Because it looks like the answer is "no." If he wants that kind of payday he may have to take a one year deal somewhere and have a star season because right now it doesn't look like anyone is trying to give him 30 per. He might be worth that but no one can offer it without doing a sign and trade and if anyone pulled that off they would have to do it in a way that the Bulls would want to participate. So he's actually got to be even more valuable than"just" 30 mil per year. That's also likely why Chicago is not going to offer him 30 per, there is no one they have to bid against at that range.[/QUOTE]

Sorry, but this is an absolutely terrible response.

We've been explaining the same thing for years about teams having $53M in cap space to sign Jaylen Brown and you were telling us we were stupid, and that teams absolutely should bid against themselves if they like a player. Please don't change the tune now.

Even if Giddey was an unrestricted free agent, I wouldn't see any team willing to eat a turd sandwich on a sign a trade, nor scrambling to create the cap space needed for the teams that are close enough to clear the needed space.

I think his market is right around $20M on a 4yr deal or $24M on a 3 +1 team option.

I think teams like Orlando need to learn a thing or two about paying guys early and bidding against themselves (Suggs) because we see how discounts become readily available when teams are willing to be patient (Giddey, Kuminga, Thomas, and Grimes) you ultimately keep all the control.

[QUOTE=beasted;15025540]Sorry, but this is an absolutely terrible response.[/QUOTE] You can apologize to yourself for your inability to understand simple concepts and accept losing an argument years ago. I'll be fine.

[Quote]We've been explaining the same thing for years about teams having $53M in cap space to sign Jaylen Brown and you were telling us we were stupid, and that teams absolutely should bid against themselves if they like a player. Please don't change the tune now.[/Quote] You don't understand the difference between Brown and Giddey? Your problem not mine. There are several teams that wanted to trade for Brown just this offseason and the Celtics rejected all offers. They want him in Boston at the supermax and there are other teams that would pay him the supermax.

Josh Giddey was traded so that a team could get Alex Caruso. No one is offering any kind of deal that will get him 30 mil per.

You don't see the difference? Not my problem. You don't seem to understand that when it comes to player value, the opinions of the NBA GMs that make deals is of ultimate importance while your opinion is of no importance whatsoever.

[QUOTE=Real Men Wear Green;15025547]You don't seem to understand that when it comes to player value, the opinions of the NBA GMs that make deals is of ultimate importance while your opinion is of no importance whatsoever.[/QUOTE]

Why should the opinion of perennial losers half way on their way to being fired be held as the gold standard?

Since the major CBA overhaul, 5 out of the current 30 GMs in the NBA have won a title as GM. Most of the GMs are signing ridiculous contracts that either A- guarantee their team will never win a title the very moment they signed the stupid contract (the Suggs deals) or B- guarantee a shortened title window as their costs will become unsustainable within 2 years. Of the 5 that have won, not a single one has won more than one. And of the ones that have won, we saw the Bucks payroll become unsustainable within 2 years, Celtics crash and burn, and Thunder are well on their way to an inevitable kamikaze by the end of 26-27.

NBA fans, TV analysts, and general history of the last 14 years since the 2011 CBA lock revamped repeater taxes, we've all seen how and talked about GMs killing their teams. You seem to be the one of the few fully endorsing a broken approach to cap management and saying it's a good thing.

Fine, disagree specifically on Brown if you wish, but the general approach is INSANELY stupid to bid against yourself.

NBA GMs are the ones offering contracts. They are the consumer in the equation of market value. Sam Presti, who didn't feel like he could get better return for Giddey than Alex Caruso, just put together the current NBA champion. Brad Stevens, who offered Jaylen Brown the supermax and rejected all the offers by teams that also wanted to bring him into their team and pay him the supermax, put together the NBA champion of the year before. These guys are nowhere near getting fired (that line was especially silly given the success these two have led their teams to). They determine what they are willing to pay their players and those two GMs are in the argument for the best GM in the league. You think your opinion is as important as theirs? Whatever. It isn't. Moving on.

You act like caruso isnt much. Bylls hadnt wanted to trade him. Everyone but the lakers wanted the guy. Not many like him around

[QUOTE=Xiao Yao You;15025826]You act like caruso isnt much. Bylls hadnt wanted to trade him. Everyone but the lakers wanted the guy. Not many like him around[/QUOTE]
He's a fine roleplayer. But would any GM trade a player they think is worth paying 30 mil per year to get him? Presti has been great at managing the cap and it's extremely likely that he figured signing Giddey was a problem he didn't want to deal with. With all the talent on that teamthey might not even have offered the 22 mul that the Bulls have on the table. Similarly, every GM knew that Giddey could be available right now and yet no one thought he would be worth saving a large amount of cap space to sign. Nothing NBA GMs have done points to Giddey having a 30 mil per market value.

Just to be clear, this isn't me saying he sucks. Wouldn't surprise me if next season he does 20/6/5 on a one-year deal and then gets paid. But his current market value doesn't seem to be where he was hoping it would be.

Certainly dont think it was all about money. Presti could have paid him. Does okc win the title with giddey instead of caruso? I doubt it. Giddey may never be as a valuable no matter what numbers he puts up and how much money he makes

[QUOTE=Xiao Yao You;15025853]Certainly dont think it was all about money. Presti could have paid him. Does okc win the title with giddey instead of caruso? I doubt it. Giddey may never be as a valuable no matter what numbers he puts up and how much money he makes[/QUOTE]
Lots of teams "could" have found a way to get Giddey and pay hin what he wants. The important fact is that no one actually has. If Presti keeps Giddey around at 30 mil per he's accelerating the doomsday clock on OKC hitting the second apron. Him not being worth that to the Thunder is a symptom of that not being his current market value.

[QUOTE=Real Men Wear Green;15025827]He's a fine roleplayer. But would any GM trade a player they think is worth paying 30 mil per year to get him? Presti has been great at managing the cap and it's extremely likely that he figured signing Giddey was a problem he didn't want to deal with. With all the talent on that teamthey might not even have offered the 22 mul that the Bulls have on the table. Similarly, every GM knew that Giddey could be available right now and yet no one thought he would be worth saving a large amount of cap space to sign. Nothing NBA GMs have done points to Giddey having a 30 mil per market value.

Just to be clear, this isn't me saying he sucks. Wouldn't surprise me if next season he does 20/6/5 on a one-year deal and then gets paid. But his current market value doesn't seem to be where he was hoping it would be.[/QUOTE]

You say you understand the value models better than I do, yet don't understand the value model where Giddey was extremely unlikely to take a $18M per year starting extension over the long term as Caruso was.

:facepalm

It's clear there is 0% understanding of payroll management on your end. I guess I've taken for granted my decade-plus corporate finance experience related to budget and strategic analysis is not symmetrical for the average Joe.

As Stevens finishes the touches on his conversion from Contender > Top 10 lottery entering squad while STILL paying exorbitant taxes all in one summer, you'll probably have no idea what lead to this.

RMWG: :confusedshrug: hE's JuSt bEeN pAyInG mArKeT VaLuE

I didn't say anything about a "value model." I have instead repeatedly pointed out the fact that no one including the Thunder and the Bulls has done anything that would indicate they think Giddey is worth paying 30 mil per. Somehow you can't wrap your head around this simple fact, even with over 10 years in corporate finance.

The Celtics getting worse this offseason is certainly related to selling off assets but they had an AllNBA player tear his achilles, in case you missed it for one of your corporate meetings. Losing a star player to injury tends to impact teams negatively.

[QUOTE=beasted;15025544]Even if Giddey was an unrestricted free agent, I wouldn't see any team willing to eat a turd sandwich on a sign a trade, nor scrambling to create the cap space needed for the teams that are close enough to clear the needed space.

I think his market is right around $20M on a 4yr deal or $24M on a 3 +1 team option.

I think teams like Orlando need to learn a thing or two about paying guys early and bidding against themselves (Suggs) because we see how discounts become readily available when teams are willing to be patient (Giddey, Kuminga, Thomas, and Grimes) you ultimately keep all the control.[/QUOTE]

Didn't Jabari Smith Jr just sign for 20mil a year? Giddey is without question a better player than him. 20 mil a year these days is like REGULAR starter money.

[QUOTE=fsvr54;15026196]Didn't Jabari Smith Jr just sign for 20mil a year? Giddey is without question a better player than him. 20 mil a year these days is like REGULAR starter money.[/QUOTE]

His comparative value isn't part of the equation. It's basically what can he get from other teams vs what the Bulls should be offering.

If you're asking me, Giddey is better than Suggs, so by that rationale he needs to be paid over $30M. But that's not the reality of the market.

Like I said, even if he was unrestricted, I wouldn't see a team clearing $30M in cap space to run out and sign him.

Sometimes players just get unlucky timing. This is one of those cases for him, Kuminga, Thomas, and Grimes. They will all get paid less than what comparable worse players got. I can realistically see a scenario where all 4 of those guys are playing on their QO and making less than Duncan Robinson next season.

Enough to have a harem of high school girls.

[QUOTE=beasted;15025939]You say you understand the value models better than I do, yet don't understand the value model where Giddey was extremely unlikely to take a $18M per year starting extension over the long term as Caruso was.

:facepalm

It's clear there is 0% understanding of payroll management on your end. I guess I've taken for granted my decade-plus corporate finance experience related to budget and strategic analysis is not symmetrical for the average Joe.

As Stevens finishes the touches on his conversion from Contender > Top 10 lottery entering squad while STILL paying exorbitant taxes all in one summer, you'll probably have no idea what lead to this.

RMWG: :confusedshrug: hE's JuSt bEeN pAyInG mArKeT VaLuE[/QUOTE]

Pro tip. Never try to explain anything to that guy. Legit has an iq of under 80.

[QUOTE=warriorfan;15026331]Pro tip. Never try to explain anything to that guy. Legit has an iq of under 80.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, I learned my lesson with it by now.

On the topic of Giddey, I just remembered that the crazy part is because the Bulls stupidly bid against themselves with Patrick Williams last summer, they are trying to learn from their own mistakes with Giddey.

It's going to be impossible to strongarm him into a team friendly deal.

Is suggs at 30 mill bad?

Michael Scotto: San Antonio Spurs star guard De'Aaron Fox has agreed to a four-year, $229 million maximum contract extension, league sources told @*********. The deal doesn’t include a player option nor trade kicker. Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul negotiated the deal. ESPN first to report.

Twitter

[QUOTE=Xiao Yao You;15026538]Is suggs at 30 mill bad?[/QUOTE] It's a gamble. Because he's still young and they think they have the players to go for conference supremacy right now they've handed out big deals to him and Bane meanwhile Banchero and Wagner are going to be max-level players. If they aren't close to the second apron yet they will be getting there. They had better succeed at a high level with the players that they have and they better do it over the next few years. Getting back to Suggs, I wouldn't hand the player that he has been 30 per but it's a case of him being lucky to be 24 instead of 30. Paid off of potential.

[QUOTE=warriorfan;15026331]Pro tip. Never try to explain anything to that guy. Legit has an iq of under 80.[/QUOTE]

:roll:

You guys know nothing about me

Giving p-will a contract he doesn't even deserve speaks so much about the bulls' front office incompetence. Giddey should have a decent one instead.

[QUOTE=warriorfan;15026331]Legit has an iq of under 80.[/QUOTE]
[Img]http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/image.php?u=827668&dateline=1624237688&type=thumb[/img]

[Img]https://i.ibb.co/JmpGnKz/IMG-20230528-095117.jpg[/img]

^Bitch fits like this are one of the many reasons why the stink weasel was voted biggest loser on ISH.


:lebronamazed: