Is it time? Is this guy a superstar talent now?
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Is it time? Is this guy a superstar talent now?
Yeah, he's the real deal.
None of this should be that surprising, as he's had a steady and consistent growth over a number of years. Has consistently elevated his performance when asked to scale up his role due to LeBron, AD, and Luka's injuries.
Has displayed outlier quality in various skills that make him suited to a primary role. Foul drawing & free-throw shooting, pull-up 2PT [I]and[/I] 3PT shooting, rim finishing, playmaking, and of course the ball handling to make it all happen.
It's laughable that some were comparing him/this to Jeremy Lin/Linsanity. This is more like OKC James Harden being unleashed in Houston.
Cam Spencer is also another one to watch for. Not that he's anywhere near what Reaves is right now, but he's somewhat crafty/sneaky/skilled like Austin and is breaking out in a smaller role. Maybe year one or two Reaves. Definitely keep an eye on him.
[QUOTE=Im Still Ballin;15046049]Yeah, he's the real deal.
None of this should be that surprising, as he's had a steady and consistent growth over a number of years. Has consistently elevated his performance when asked to scale up his role due to LeBron, AD, and Luka's injuries.
Has displayed outlier quality in various skills that make him suited to a primary role. Foul drawing & free-throw shooting, pull-up 2PT [I]and[/I] 3PT shooting, rim finishing, playmaking, and of course the ball handling to make it all happen.
It's laughable that some were comparing him/this to Jeremy Lin/Linsanity. This is more like OKC James Harden being unleashed in Houston.[/QUOTE]
Exactly. His growth is on par with a young Kobe.
[QUOTE=ImKobe;15046051]Exactly. His growth is on par with a young Kobe.[/QUOTE]
Except when he was a rookie he was the same age Kobe was in 2002.
Probably the most unexpected rise since SGA. Did anyone in the entire world see AR-15 becoming a legit superstar?
I've seen nothing so far this season to convince me that Luka is better than Reaves.
[QUOTE=Nowoco;15046063]Probably the most unexpected rise since SGA. Did anyone in the entire world see AR-15 becoming a legit superstar?[/QUOTE]
He always had well-rounded offensive skills but this? Nah.
He was also a super old rookie; turned 24 during his rookie season. It seems like almost no one like that ends up even near this level. The steady improvement each year has been truly impressive.
[QUOTE=Full Court;15046066]I've seen nothing so far this season to convince me that Luka is better than Reaves.[/QUOTE]
That's because you're a moron. Spoiler: You always have been.
To answer OP's question: Borderline. Do it for a season.
Did anyone see it coming? No.
[QUOTE=Yes or No;15046075][B][SIZE=5]That's because you're a moron.[/SIZE][/B] Spoiler: You always have been.
To answer OP's question: Borderline. Do it for a season.
Did anyone see it coming? No.[/QUOTE]
I see you're triggered yet again. :lol Sucks to be you.
Fact is, Reaves can score just as well, on just as good (if not better) efficiency. He spends a lot less time dominating the ball, so team ball movement is better when Reaves is handling. Luka is no better on defense.
Luka gets more rebounds.
What does Luka bring to the table that Reaves does not? Uncontested rebounds?
He's molding into a star, but not a superstar. Those are the Jokic, Giannis, LeBron, Curry types.
[QUOTE=Wally450;15046088]He's molding into a star, but not a superstar. Those are the Jokic, Giannis, LeBron, Curry types.[/QUOTE]
Agree. Definitely Star, not Superstar. Need to see the commercials, jersey sales, and endoresements.
[QUOTE=beasted;15046091]Agree. Definitely Star, not Superstar. Need to see the commercials, jersey sales, and endoresements.[/QUOTE]
Yea and you need MVPs, to be the driving force of championships, etc.
He could be on the same tier as guys like Booker and Mitchell for sure. Stars but not superstars
Man's doing [B]29 ppg[/B] and [B]7 apg[/B] on [B][U]69% TS[/U][/B]. 6th in EPM. Just crazy. Get caught up in all the marketing/branding/advertising semantics you want, that's superstar [I]production[/I] and [I]impact[/I], which are the things that really matter.
[QUOTE=Im Still Ballin;15046098]Man's doing [B]29 ppg[/B] and [B]7 apg[/B] on [B][U]69% TS[/U][/B]. 6th in EPM. Just crazy. Get caught up in all the marketing/branding/advertising semantics you want, that's superstar [I]production[/I] and [I]impact[/I], which are the things that really matter.[/QUOTE]
Exactly. Seems like Yes or No can't comprehend this.
[QUOTE=Im Still Ballin;15046098]Man's doing [B]29 ppg[/B] and [B]7 apg[/B] on [B][U]69% TS[/U][/B]. 6th in EPM. Just crazy. Get caught up in all the marketing/branding/advertising semantics you want, that's superstar [I]production[/I] and [I]impact[/I], which are the things that really matter.[/QUOTE]
We have Mitchell, Jaylen, Maxey putting up similar production, and none of those guys are superstars. 29 ppg in this era isn't what it used to be.
I want everyone RN …
…to recall …
…Darvin Ham benching Reaves.
[QUOTE=BarberSchool;15046137]I want everyone RN …
…to recall …
…Darvin Ham benching Reaves.[/QUOTE]
It really makes you wonder how many different coaches have completely altered someone's career path and turned them into bench riders or out of the league.
There have been a hell of a lot of dumb NBA coaches over the years. I doubt the majority of them are smart now.
[QUOTE=ShawkFactory;15046095]Yea and you need MVPs, to be the driving force of championships, etc.
He could be on the same tier as guys like Booker and Mitchell for sure. Stars but not superstars[/QUOTE]
I know people don't put much stock into this but both players have roughly 4x the social media followers than AR. He is NOT on the same level as Booker and Mitchell who have been on video game covers, multiple all-star appearances and have way more endorsements than him.
[QUOTE=Yes or No;15046138]It really makes you wonder how many different coaches have completely altered someone's career path and turned them into bench riders or out of the league.
There have been a hell of a lot of dumb NBA coaches over the years. I doubt the majority of them are smart now.[/QUOTE]Recall the gift that was Mark Jackson:
1. Wanted BOTH Steph and Klay to shoot less 3’s and go to the bucket more.
2. Was 100% certain Harrison Barnes shooting slump was due to demonic possession, offered exorcism services to Harrison, to be done at Mark’s church
3. Started fake beef between bench players and starters, by claiming (falsely) that certain bench players like Festus Ezeli were actively hoping starters played worse and got hurt, so he could finally play more. Team called a players only meeting, Mark didn’t last much longer after that.
[QUOTE=BarberSchool;15046146]Recall the gift that was Mark Jackson:
1. Wanted BOTH Steph and Klay to shoot less 3’s and go to the bucket more.
2. Was 100% certain Harrison Barnes shooting slump was due to demonic possession, offered exorcism services to Harrison, to be done at Mark’s church
3. Started fake beef between bench players and starters, by claiming (falsely) that certain bench players like Festus Ezeli were actively hoping starters played worse and got hurt, so he could finally play more. Team called a players only meeting, Mark didn’t last much longer after that.[/QUOTE]
Where is the on the record proof for any of this aside from some reddit post or faceless "sources"?
[QUOTE=beasted;15046151]Where is the on the record proof for any of this aside from some reddit post or faceless "sources"?[/QUOTE]
1. Was directly out of his mouth in a post game press conference, in klay’s rookie or 2nd year.
2. Was widely reported AFTER Mark’s firing by local Bay Area outlets.
3. Was also widely reported post-firing, by Bay Area media outlets.
There are tons more, those are simply the most egregious that came to mind off top.
I thought of another just now:
Mark continually tried to proselytize owner Joe Lacob’s son to convert to Christianity. Warning him of eternal damnation, etc. the Lacob’s are Jewish, and active in their support of Bay Area Jewish organizations.
Again, these were all widely reported post-firing.
[QUOTE=BarberSchool;15046156]1. Was directly out of his mouth in a post game press conference, in klay’s rookie or 2nd year.
2. Was widely reported AFTER Mark’s firing by local Bay Area outlets.
3. Was also widely reported post-firing, by Bay Area media outlets.
There are tons more, those are simply the most egregious that came to mind off top.
I thought of another just now:
Mark continually tried to proselytize owner Joe Lacob’s son to convert to Christianity. Warning him of eternal damnation, etc. the Lacob’s are Jewish, and active in their support of Bay Area Jewish organizations.
Again, these were all widely reported post-firing.[/QUOTE]
Sounds like "sauces". Some of this sounds batshit crazy, but, also some of this sounds like #metoo hit pieces not uncommon in liberal media. SF might be the most liberal city in the US.
[QUOTE=beasted;15046140]I know people don't put much stock into this but both players have roughly 4x the social media followers than AR. He is NOT on the same level as Booker and Mitchell who have been on video game covers, multiple all-star appearances and have way more endorsements than him.[/QUOTE]
Yea that’s why I said “could be” though. A full year of this and potentially another after? He’s on that level.
A team USA appearance would help too. And maybe doing this in the playoffs.
[QUOTE=beasted;15046151]Where is the on the record proof for any of this aside from some reddit post or faceless "sources"?[/QUOTE]
Shit is well documented. Go look it up.
[QUOTE=ShawkFactory;15046168]Yea that’s why I said “could be” though. A full year of this and potentially another after? He’s on that level.
A team USA appearance would help too. And maybe doing this in the playoffs.[/QUOTE]
My bad, did not catch the could be. I agree.
[QUOTE=warriorfan;15046169]Shit is well documented. Go look it up.[/QUOTE]
"Well documented" in today's era could very well mean idiots quoting the same "sauces"
Jordan Walsh shut down "Young Kobe!" Joshua Minot outplayed LeBron James [SIZE=1]Jr[/SIZE]!
[QUOTE=SouBeachTalents;15046113]We have Mitchell, Jaylen, Maxey putting up similar production, and none of those guys are superstars. 29 ppg in this era isn't what it used to be.[/QUOTE]
His production is insane, even relative to the era.
Reaves is doing 28.9 ppg (37.9 per 100) and 6.8 apg (8.9 per 100; 28.7 AST%) on [B]68.8% TS (+10.5 rTS; 118 TS+) (!)[/B]
Brown is doing 29 ppg (43.4 per 100) and 4.8 apg (7.1 per 100; 24.7 AST%) on 58.7% TS (+0.4 rTS; 101 TS+)
Maxey is doing 32.6 ppg (39.1 per 100) and 7.2 apg (8.7 per 100; 31.0 AST%) on 60.9% TS (+2.6 rTS; 105 TS+)
Mitchell is doing 30.7 ppg (42.5 per 100) and 5.5 apg (7.6 per 100; 28.2 AST%) on 64.2% TS (+5.9 rTS; 110 TS+)
(not updated for today)
[HR][/HR]
And Austin is doing that mostly as a second option. The other three are numero uno. So, you'd think Reaves' numbers are benefiting from playing sidekick to Luka, but that doesn't appear to be the case:
[QUOTE]Austin Reaves has averaged 40.0 points, 9.6 assists and 4.8 rebounds on 71.4% TS in 5 games without Luka Dončić this season.[/QUOTE]
His TS% is on the Shai/Jokic tier. In 2015-16, it'd be like 64% TS. Like 62.5% in 2011-12. A little over 61% TS in 2003-04.
Volume-wise, Austin's 28.9 ppg is 24.7% of the PPG league average of 116.9/g. In 2015-16? 25.4 ppg. 2011-12? 23.8 ppg. 2003-04? 23.1 ppg.
So, those PPG and TS% numbers are great in any era, and that's largely as a second option. But what about as the #1 option?
[HR][/HR]
He played two games as the 1st option (without LeBron, AD, or Luka) last season:
[QUOTE]124-117 win vs. IND - 45 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 steals, 4 turnovers (14/26 FG (.538) 4/9 3PT (.444) 10/17 2PT (.588) 13/13 FT (1.000))
126-131 loss vs. DEN - 37 points, 8 rebounds, 13 assists, 4 steals, 4 turnovers (13/26 FG (.500) 4/10 3PT (.400) 9/16 2PT (.563) 7/7 FT (1.000))[/QUOTE]
Including those two games, he played [B]9 games in 2024-25 as either the first or second option[/B]. Austin averaged [B]27.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 8.3 apg, 1.4 spg, 2.9 topg on 49.1% FG (19.2 fga/g), 42.5% 3PT (8.1 3pa/g), 90.9% FT (6.1 fta/g), 63.6% TS[/B].
Pretty nice numbers!
So, we've got [B]7 "first-option" games[/B] now - 2 from last season and 5 from this season. [B]40.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 9.7 apg, 2.0 spg, 4.3 topg on 52.2% FG (22.7 fga/g), 41.8% 3PT (9.6 3pa/g), 92.6% FT (13.6 fta/g), 70.2% TS[/B].
[HR][/HR]
I don't think he'd average 40 ppg on 70% TS over an entire season, but 35 ppg on 65% TS? I think he could. And adjusted for era? That's 30.1 ppg on 60.3% TS in 2015-16. 29.0 ppg on 59% TS in 2011-12. 28 ppg on 57.5% TS in 2003-04.
Closest historical player comps from the last two decades regarding high-volume production and general play style? Arenas in the '00s, Harden and Dame in the '10s.
He's obviously different from those guys, both physically and with regard to specific skills. But they're as close as you're going to get regarding high-volume production and general play style. Not many high-volume pull-up three-point guys in the '00s.
[HR][/HR]
And my last point.
Why are players and teams scoring more and at a higher efficiency? Answer: It's multifactoral.
1) Rules have made it easier
2) Strategic optimization/play style optimization
3) Talent pool increase
There has simply never been as much talent in the NBA before. It's harder to play defense, both because of rule changes/reinterpretations, and teams & players playing a more "meta" style. But how much do these three factors each account for today's 58.3% TS, 116.9 ppg, and 115.8 ORtg?
Hard to say.
I'd argue a lot of players were held back in the past. Primarily, perimeter guards who shoot a lot of threes off the dribble. The Mitchell's, Maxey's, and Reaves' could absolutely have "starred" in the '00s and '10s, had they been allowed to play their games.