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Posterize's Pro Prospects
I decided to make a thread in which I break down 1 player each day leading up to the draft. I'll discuss their abilities, their stock, what teams I see them fitting in with, what their best case/worst case scenarios are, and a comparison if possible. The guys I will [B]not[/B] discuss are Brandon Jennings, Ricky Rubio, Gani Lawal, Marcus Thornton, and Omri Casspi, as well as any other international players because I know very little about them.
The players will be chosen at random and in no particular order. So to start it off...
[IMG]http://sportsthisweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/44567187harden-copy.jpg[/IMG]
[B]James Harden, SG, Arizona St.[/B]
James, put in the right situation, could be the player in the draft most ready to contribute [B]now[/B]. A crafty lefty, Harden has an uncanny ability to get into the lane and to the free throw line whenever he pleases. His slashing ability tops out in this draft at his position by far and he has a way of finishing difficult shots around the basket. His passing from a 2 guard position is above average, though sometimes he can get into trouble if his drives to the bucket are cut off and the defense collapses on him, leading to a turnover.
Harden's biggest weakness as of now is shooting off of the dribble. When he receives the ball on the perimeter, his only options are to isolate and try to get to the bucket, catch and shoot, or pass. If his lane to the bucket is cut off in isolation chances are he's going to miss the jumper. Part of this could be because he doesn't get much elevation on his jumper, therefor barely getting it over his defenders hands.
The closest, and no not an exact comparison, that I can come to is Manu Ginobili. Both left handed, similar size, great driving ability to get to the basket and similar as stand-still shooters. What Manu has that Harden doesn't is mentioned above, the ability to shoot off the dribble. If Harden can develop this ability his offensive arsenal could be lethal.
Best Case Scenario: 21 ppg, 2nd option on a team
Worst Case Scenario: 6th Man
Stock: No higher than 3, no lower than 12
Best Fit Situations: Thunder (3), Raptors (9), Bobcats (12)
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Re: Posterize's Pro Prospects
I still like Harden a lot as a player, but personally I've cooled on him a bit. As weak as this draft is, he's probably still a top 5 pick. But I'm not sure he'll ever be more than a quality 6th man, I really don't think his ceiling is much higher than what we've already seen from him. From a top 5 pick you're expecting a bonafide starter with ASG aspirations, and I don't think he'll ever give you that.
This is such an odd draft, we're going to look back on it in 5 or so years and wonder what the hell some teams were thinking letting Player X slip out of the lotto or taking Player Z at 6 (just an example Sota fans, no harm meant). It's all potential.
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Harden's probably one of the "safer" picks in the lottery. You know that when you draft him you're not getting that every year all-star, but you're not getting a scrub either. The guy can play. There are probably a good 12 teams he's capable of starting for as a rookie and contributing fine. I think at the worst he's a Delonte West type offensively. Not someone who completely stands out in the offense but gives you what you ask of him.
James' wingspan (6'11") is also key in helping him get swipes from his opponents. Could someday be a 2 steal per game guy. Personally I'd like to see him be Durant's sidekick, but I'm unsure if the Thunder would go that way (they could go big with Thabeet or if Rubio drops they won't pass on him). Toronto is also a good landing spot for him if he dropped.
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I've noticed alot of guys don't know much about Thornton. There really is no spot on comparison for him but he kinda reminds me of Jannero Pargo and JR Smith. He's the type of guy you bring off the bench to get you buckets. He takes some wild shots that will make you scratch your head but when they fall all you can do is clap and hope he gets back on defense.
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People are forgetting that Harden was a better prospect then BRoy coming out of college, and he's [B]2[/B] years younger.
2 years is a huge difference w/ players that young.
His game is fairly similar to Broys.
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Can anybody name a lefty that doesn't at least have a decent jumper?:confusedshrug: I don't even know any of my lefty friends that can't shoot. Just seems like it's something instinct with them.
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[IMG]http://allhailuofl.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/terrence-williams1.jpg[/IMG]
Terrence has the most complete overall game with few weaknesses of any SG/SF in the draft. He's an Andre Iguodala clone. A jack of all trades type with the only thing holding him back is his outside jumpshot, which while still shaky has come a long way in his 4 years. In fact, him playing a full 4 years is what's holding his draft stock so low. This is one of those cases where I hate how the NBA teams become fascinated with players who have shown little (Derozan for example) over guys who have shown and all-around game like Williams.
Williams has the potential to be the guy on team who guards the opposing team's best wing player. He has plenty of size/quickness to guard any SG in the league, and the skill to guard certain smaller SF's. He's a guy who gets plenty of steals and gets out on the break to show his athleticism. Williams should top out as one of the best athletes in the draft.
In my opinion, he should be ranked higher in the draft than what most mocks show him at (in the early 20's) and would rank him well above fellow SG's Tyreke Evans, Wayne Ellington, Chase Budinger, and possibly Gerald Henderson. He ranks #1 from the position in passing, rebounding, and man-to-man defense IMO with shooting/ballhandling the only attributes he's not on top of the list.
The best situations for Williams are Chicago (16) or New Orleans (21), with NO being the best spot. The Hornets only have 1 SG/SF under 30 years old on the team (Julian Wright); ages are Rasual Butler (30), Peja (31), Posey (32), Peterson (31), Devin Brown (30). Terrence could form a great backcourt with Chris Paul and be his running mate in an up-tempo game, while also creating scoring opportunities for the Hornets shooters. His lack of shooting would be hidden with the Hornets good deep-ball threats.
To add to the Andre Iguodala comparison, here's the stats of each player from their last year in college...
[I]Terrence Williams[/I]- 33.0 mpg|12.5 ppg|5.0 apg|8.6 rpg|2.3 spg
[I]Andre Iguodala[/I]- 32 mpg|12.9 ppg|4.9 apg|8.4 rpg| (can't find Andre's steals, but as a 1.8 spg career # I assume it was a lot)
And their draft combine measurements...
[I]Terrence Williams[/I]- 6'5
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Re: Posterize's Pro Prospects
Patty Mills!
Once this dude isnt in a position to carry his team and have a smart shot selection he could be a beast, hopefully Tony Parker v2. I mean at the olympics he got:
22pts in 24 mins vs Argentina
15pts in 25mins vs Iran
13pts in 17mins vs Lithuania
20pts in 29mins vs USA
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I'm almost to the point where if none of the big names drop (Holiday, DeRozan, etc) to 13, I expect Indy to take Williams. I'd love to have the kid. With Marquis Daniels soon to depart, Dunleavy Jr on the shelf for who knows how long, there's not much depth at the wing at all. Williams can play right now in a backup role with the potential to blossom into a very good 6th man. Bird loves polished and experienced players, and I think it's going to be Williams, Maynor, or Blair.
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I heard that the Hornets were selling there first round pick.
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[QUOTE=InspiredLebowski]I'm almost to the point where if none of the big names drop (Holiday, DeRozan, etc) to 13, I expect Indy to take Williams. I'd love to have the kid. With Marquis Daniels soon to depart, Dunleavy Jr on the shelf for who knows how long, there's not much depth at the wing at all. Williams can play right now in a backup role with the potential to blossom into a very good 6th man. Bird loves polished and experienced players, and I think it's going to be Williams, Maynor, or Blair.[/QUOTE]
I think it was the Pacers forum I posted in saying that T-Will would be good for them. But I forgot about Brandon Rush. What's going on with him? He had some great games (statistically) at the end of the year.
edit: It seems Williams is moving up some mocks. draftexpress now has him going to the Pacers
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[QUOTE=Mr_Basketball#1]I heard that the Hornets were selling there first round pick.[/QUOTE]
I heard that a couple weeks ago. Seems like they're old though, I'd keep it.
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Harden, is probably the best all-around player in this draft. I think he'll have a huge impact in the league and will be a better pro than he was a college player. He reminds me a lot of Brandon Roy with this size and ability to even play point guard. Like Roy, Harden is sneaky with his quickness and athleticism as well. I think his best destination would be Washington where he can share ball handling duties with Arenas.
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[QUOTE=BayAreaSportz]Harden, is probably the best all-around player in this draft. I think he'll have a huge impact in the league and will be a better pro than he was a college player. He reminds me a lot of Brandon Roy with this size and ability to even play point guard. Like Roy, Harden is sneaky with his quickness and athleticism as well. I think his best destination would be Washington where he can share ball handling duties with Arenas.[/QUOTE]
Washington has Nick Young in place at SG. I'm assuming Washington goes big with Jordan Hill or Earl Clark since Antawn is getting old and Haywood is coming off injury.
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I'm not particularly sold on Williams. I love his athleticism, am intrigued by his all around play...but as a player I think he doesn't seem to have that competitive spirit. He reminds me of a poor man's T-Mac, a guy who has the talent to be way more than he is, but is content in doing just what he's asked to do. I just think he could be an Eddie Jones good type player, but instead I think he'll end up just being a glue guy instead.
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[IMG]http://photos.masslive.com/photos/republican/803ffc06f0156efa430d62f630c7c9a9.jpg[/IMG]
[B]Dionte Christmas, SG, Temple[/B]
The guy I know the most about in the draft, and yes this will be longer than any other player's review. I actually believed he was a little shorter but he measured out well for a 2 guard at the pre-draft measurements (6'4
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Christmas' background as a player looks pretty similar to Michael Redd's. Wouldn't suprise me at all to see him end up as a better NBA player than most of the SGs picked in the 1st round.
Maybe I value shooting too much but I just don't like Henderson/T. Williams that much for that one specific reason, especially Williams. Seems like the guy is scared to shoot the ball.
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[quote=Posterize246]I think it was the Pacers forum I posted in saying that T-Will would be good for them. But I forgot about Brandon Rush. What's going on with him? He had some great games (statistically) at the end of the year.
edit: It seems Williams is moving up some mocks. draftexpress now has him going to the Pacers[/quote]
Back in Kansas working out, specifically his ball handling. He's up and down as a player, can take himself out of games when his shot isn't falling, but when it is he can be a force. Has confidence problems in short.
I've seen mentions of Williams having potential character problems, but can't find anything that's specific. Anyone know much about that? Just poor interviews or what?
Also, I've read that Indy wants Tyreke Evans fairly bad. With DC willing to move their pick, I could see a swap brewing. What it would entail, I have no clue. But it's possible.
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[QUOTE=InspiredLebowski]Back in Kansas working out, specifically his ball handling. He's up and down as a player, can take himself out of games when his shot isn't falling, but when it is he can be a force. Has confidence problems in short.
I've seen mentions of Williams having potential character problems, but can't find anything that's specific. Anyone know much about that? Just poor interviews or what?
Also, I've read that Indy wants Tyreke Evans fairly bad. With DC willing to move their pick, I could see a swap brewing. What it would entail, I have no clue. But it's possible.[/QUOTE]
What's O'Brien's contract look like now?
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Re: Posterize's Pro Prospects
[quote=Posterize246]What's O'Brien's contract look like now?[/quote]
Final year this season. Short of a 50 win season I don't see him coming back. Seems like he and Bird don't see eye to eye on certain things. Dick Harter's more or less the defensive coordinator but Bird doesn't think Obie's giving him say in the system. That and it seems like they both knew O'Brien was just a transitional coach to help with the housecleaning process, neither had any real long term aspirations.
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[QUOTE=InspiredLebowski]Final year this season. Short of a 50 win season I don't see him coming back. Seems like he and Bird don't see eye to eye on certain things. Dick Harter's more or less the defensive coordinator but Bird doesn't think Obie's giving him say in the system. That and it seems like they both knew O'Brien was just a transitional coach to help with the housecleaning process, neither had any real long term aspirations.[/QUOTE]
That's the same way Philly used him, transition. He inherited a 33 win team, turned them into a 43 win team in his only season, and was fired because the hometown favorite Mo Cheeks became available. Always had a soft spot for JOB after that because I didn't think he got the respect he deserved.
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[QUOTE=dak121]Christmas' background as a player looks pretty similar to Michael Redd's. Wouldn't suprise me at all to see him end up as a better NBA player than most of the SGs picked in the 1st round.
Maybe I value shooting too much but I just don't like Henderson/T. Williams that much for that one specific reason, especially Williams. Seems like the guy is scared to shoot the ball.[/QUOTE]
Redd had the advantage of learning behind a HOF guy in Ray Allen. Had to have helped him somewhat.
I'd take Dionte before I took Chase Budinger and Toney Douglas. I don't know enough about Marcus Thornton or Jermaine Taylor to say anything about them.
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[IMG]http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/01f8etm1jB4Fz/340x.jpg[/IMG]
[B]James Johnson, F, Wake Forest[/B]
I really, really like this kid. Has a great all-around game as a small forward and is built like a tank, just pure muscle. But his size doesn't slow him down in the full court as he has great end to end speed. His size, strength, and speed is what makes him so intriguing. Measured a near 6'8
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I can see Johnson as a PF in the Diaw/Rodney Rogers mold. He has good perimeter skills but he's 250 lbs. That kind of size needs to be in the post.
I would love to see the Bulls draft either him or Hansbrough at #16. I can see both of them beating out Thomas for the starting PF job eventually.
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Singletary was traded to the Bobcats, Dragic hasn't played all that well when given meaningful minutes and Barbosa is more of a two guard anyway. I think the Suns will go with a point guard unless someone like Earl Clark falls to them.
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[QUOTE=Grinder]Singletary was traded to the Bobcats, Dragic hasn't played all that well when given meaningful minutes and Barbosa is more of a two guard anyway. I think the Suns will go with a point guard unless someone like Earl Clark falls to them.[/QUOTE]
Yeah Barbosa is more of a shoot first guy, but he can handle the ball. Who's going to fill in at SF? Dudley? Add in the fact that you can't always count on Grant's health. Earl Clark is another guy that could go there if he fell, but if Clark is gone and Johnson is there I see JJ in their future.
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Could you do one on Evans and DeRozan
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[QUOTE=Snoop_Cat]Could you do one on Evans and DeRozan[/QUOTE]
I'll do one on Evans for sure. My post on Derozan will probably be short though.
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[IMG]http://www.spokesmanreview.com/stories/2007/nov/12/dayepic12_11-12-2007_I4C0AG5.jpg[/IMG]
[B]Austin Daye, F, Gonzaga[/B]
One of the players in the draft who I don't really expect to live up to a lot of the hype he's been given. Tested extremely poor in the predraft measurements. Was only 192 lbs despite his 6'10” frame, weighing even less than PG's Jonny Flynn and Ty Lawson. Showed off an extremely poor max vert (28.0 inches), was unable to bench 185 lbs even one time, finished 2nd to Jordan Hill in the agility drill, and dead last in the
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[QUOTE=Posterize246][IMG]http://www.spokesmanreview.com/stories/2007/nov/12/dayepic12_11-12-2007_I4C0AG5.jpg[/IMG]
[B]Austin Daye, F, Gonzaga[/B]
One of the players in the draft who I don't really expect to live up to a lot of the hype he's been given. Tested extremely poor in the predraft measurements. Was only 192 lbs despite his 6'10
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[QUOTE=Posterize246][IMG]http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/01f8etm1jB4Fz/340x.jpg[/IMG]
[B]James Johnson, F, Wake Forest[/B]
I really, really like this kid. Has a great all-around game as a small forward and is built like a tank, just pure muscle. But his size doesn't slow him down in the full court as he has great end to end speed. His size, strength, and speed is what makes him so intriguing. Measured a near 6'8
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anybody disagree with anything I've said?
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Austin Daye is Josh Duncan part 2.
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[IMG]http://i2.cdn.turner.com/si/2008/writers/kevin_armstrong/04/16/commitment.0416/usa.jpg[/IMG]
[B]Tyreke Evans, SG, Memphis[/B]
Tyreke is only 2nd to James Harden in this draft in slashing ability/getting to the rim. He has great footwork when driving and has an unstoppable spin move to his right hand when he gets into the paint. The only problem with his finishing ability is that he never is able to finish with his left hand. I thought when he did this in high school that he would be able to get rid of the habit, but it never stopped at Memphis. Every drive to the basket is either started with his right hand on the drive and finished with his right hand (correctly), a drive with his left and that special spin move back to his right hand (hard to stop), or a drive with his left and a difficult, off-the-wrong-foot finish with his right hand. He's going to have to fix this.
Evans is NOT a point guard at the next level. But he is very capable of sharing ball handling duties. He doesn't have great vision and struggles running any kind of pick n' roll, but when attacking the basket he has some of the best
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[QUOTE=noob cake]Gerald Henderson request[/QUOTE]
Soon. I think I'm doing Teague next.
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I like this thread a lot....but all it does is make me wonder who my wiz will get... :rant
E. Maynor Request?
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[QUOTE=The Big Skinny]I like this thread a lot....but all it does is make me wonder who my wiz will get... :rant[/QUOTE]
I would expect them to take Jordan Hill or trade the pick. So much Harden talk but Nick Young is still young and promising at the position. PG and SF aren't needs. Jamison is up there in age and Haywood is coming off of injury. Etan Thomas is always a concern to be injured. Blatche is really the only guy out of the bigs who is a part of the future. So yeah...Hill or a trade down.
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[QUOTE=Posterize246]I would expect them to take Jordan Hill or trade the pick. So much Harden talk but Nick Young is still young and promising at the position. PG and SF aren't needs. Jamison is up there in age and Haywood is coming off of injury. Etan Thomas is always a concern to be injured. Blatche is really the only guy out of the bigs who is a part of the future. So yeah...Hill or a trade down.[/QUOTE]
Yeah its not looking too good in terms of value. Jordan Hill gives us a Strong rebounder and legit post defender yet i feel he is raw offensively and doesn't seem his game will translate in the NBA. I want a trade down but due to the "weak" draft...i don't feel there will be many suitors.
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Do Psycho T...I want to hear what his Stans have to say.