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-   -   Week 8 NFL point spreads... (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=151082)

Wizardly Cool 10-27-2009 07:24 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BankShot
I don't understand these odds. How can a 4-2 Packer team that is 1-2 against quality teams (Bengals, Vikes, Bears), be favorites against the 6-1 Vikes that is 2-1 against quality teams (49ers, Ravens, Steelers)

They've beaten the same bad teams (Rams, Browns, Lions), and the Vikings have beaten the Packers this season.

I know its in Green Bay, but does homefield really make that much difference??? Just doesn't make sense to me. :confusedshrug:



The Oddsmakers consulted with the football Gods and came to the conclusion that it is impossible for Farve to win in Lambeau Field when wearing a Vikings Jersey.

The Football Gods just won't allow it.

And yes... Homefield advantage is very important.

notlebowski 10-27-2009 07:24 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BankShot
Okay, so since the Packers are a 3-point favorite, does that really mean that oddsmakers see the Pack and Vikes as equals at this point in the season?? Even if the Vikings beat them earlier in the season?

I'm not trying to rebut what you're saying, I'm just trying to understand.


I know it seems that way, but odds are made to induce betting. It's not really "we think Team X should beat Team Z by this many points." The goal to attract equal betting on both sides, this way, no matter what, the betting place makes money.

~primetime~ 10-27-2009 07:25 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BankShot
Okay, so since the Packers are a 3-point favorite, does that really mean that oddsmakers see the Pack and Vikes as equals at this point in the season?? Even if the Vikings beat them earlier in the season?

I'm not trying to rebut what you're saying, I'm just trying to understand.

the odds are determined by the gamblers themselves...and will change over the week...(not by much usually)

the casinoes try to get an even 50/50 of the money on each side of the bet, and then charge the winner "juice"...which is like 5%-15% of the winnings usually...


so basically, the point spread reflects what the entire gambling world thinks...

BankShot 10-27-2009 07:26 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by notlebowski
I know it seems that way, but odds are made to induce betting. It's not really "we think Team X should beat Team Z by this many points." The goal to attract equal betting on both sides, this way, no matter what, the betting place makes money.


See, now this makes a lot of sense.

Much more than "Yes... homefield advantage is very important"

Wizardly Cool 10-27-2009 07:34 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ~primetime~
the odds are determined by the gamblers themselves...and will change over the week...(not by much usually)

the casinoes try to get an even 50/50 of the money on each side of the bet, and then charge the winner "juice"...which is like 5%-15% of the winnings usually...


so basically, the point spread reflects what the entire gambling world thinks...




Check this out...

http://www.risingstarsports.com/inde...content=method

Rising Star Sports NFL Record

NFL Past 18 Years:


Quote:

The theory of getting balanced action and pocketing the vig (juice) is always the goal of the Oddsmakers; but, in the real world this rarely happens. On a typical 15 game NFL weekend, the major sports books will be in balance on 8 to 9 games with a 5% risk free return. One or two games may have major imbalance, which will cause the game to go off the board early in the week and reopen on game day as a circled game (limit on the wager amount) to reduce their risk. On the remaining 4 to 5 games they will be at risk $50,000 to $100,000 on each match up. On these 4 or 5 at risk games is where you will find Rising Star's recommended plays. This is also where Las Vegas turns the weekend into a Fantastic week for the sports book. To the sports book they could care less who wins the balanced games as they will take 5% of the total amount wagered no matter which team wins against the spread (ATS).

On the circled games they don't win much and they don't lose much as they have limited the amount wagered. If they win all of the 4 or 5 at risk games, their return is in excess of 9% of the total handle for the weekend. Over the past eighteen years Las Vegas and Rising Star have won between 60% and 66% of these at risk games and that is why both of us are still in business.


Look at their success rate in the link. (at the bottom)

IlliniFan 10-27-2009 07:37 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
11/1 1:00 ET At Baltimore -3.5 Denver
11/1 1:00 ET At Chicago -13.5 Cleveland
11/1 1:00 ET Houston -3.5 At Buffalo Houston to cover
11/1 4:15 ET At Green Bay -3 Minnesota Vikings will win
11/1 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -12.5 San Francisco
11/1 1:00 ET At NY Jets -3 Miami
11/1 1:00 ET At Detroit -4 St. Louis
11/1 1:00 ET At Dallas -9.5 Seattle
11/1 4:05 ET At San Diego -16.5 Oakland
11/1 4:05 ET At Tennessee -3 Jacksonville How are the Titans favored in anything? Go with the Jags.
11/1 4:15 ET At Arizona -9.5 Carolina
11/1 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -2 NY Giants

Monday Night Football Point Spread

11/2 8:35 ET At New Orleans -10 Atlanta

Lots of good looking lines this week.

Wizardly Cool 10-27-2009 07:37 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

You can Catch a Rising Star by going to Pricing/Ordering and join us for the entire 2009-2010 season for only $350 which covers all play off games including the Super Bowl. If you prfer to test drive the method you can subscribe for a 5 week trial subscriptio for only $100.

Damn... that's expensive advice.

http://www.risingstarsports.com/index.php?content=nfl

~primetime~ 10-27-2009 07:39 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Wizardly Cool
Check this out...

http://www.risingstarsports.com/inde...content=method

Rising Star Sports NFL Record

NFL Past 18 Years:





Look at their success rate in the link. (at the bottom)

that seems like a BS trap to me...don't trust it

Carbine 10-27-2009 07:43 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Texans to cover is easily the best one of the group.

bisk 10-27-2009 08:02 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ~primetime~
a .0 would just be nothing...but I don't see any .0s there...:confusedshrug:

I would just take that as "nothing"...

3.0 = 3 points
3.5 = 3 and 1/2 points


yea 3 is 3.0 thus .0...:oldlol:
But what happens if that team wins by exactly 3.

GP_20 10-27-2009 08:07 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ~primetime~
yeah Glove, we know you're the master...just save it and focus on continueing to be head and shoulders above everyone else again this week...

Taking a week off after last week's dominant 3-0 run.

Wizardly Cool 10-27-2009 08:27 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Should of put money on the Wizards Mavs game.

They always seem to struggle a little bit against the Wiz, and they usully start off rusty early in the season.


Mavs-8


Wizard leads by 1 deep in the second quarter

~primetime~ 10-27-2009 08:31 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bisk
yea 3 is 3.0 thus .0...:oldlol:
But what happens if that team wins by exactly 3.

it is a "push"

you don't win or lose...

~primetime~ 10-27-2009 08:32 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Wizardly Cool
Should of put money on the Wizards Mavs game.

They always seem to struggle a little bit against the Wiz, and they usully start off rusty early in the season.


Mavs-8


Wizard leads by 1 deep in the second quarter

Barea looks good...

Wizardly Cool 10-27-2009 08:39 PM

Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ~primetime~
Barea looks good...


Wiz winning by 9 points.

I knew that spread was wrong.



I remember I had tickets to a Wizards game two years ago, and we lost by like 20 points or some $hit.

It was the biggestest massacre I've ever witnesses "in person".


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