Who's better? Who has the higher upside?
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Who's better? Who has the higher upside?
johnson is better right now
oubre looks very long, he had a couple games where he was really keyed in and was a pest on defense. if he learned to play hard all the time, he would be better. he has higher upside.
Oubre worries the hell out of me to be honest. Long, athletic wing with no standout skill and a questionable motor. There have been far to many players with his level of talent that fit his mold as a prospect that haven't panned out.
I feel like Johnson is just some work on his jumper away from being a very good 3&D at worst.
[QUOTE=Jailblazers7]Oubre worries the hell out of me to be honest. Long, athletic wing with no standout skill and a questionable motor. There have been far to many players with his level of talent that fit his mold as a prospect that haven't panned out.
I feel like Johnson is just some work on his jumper away from being a very good 3&D at worst.[/QUOTE]
That's weird because I feel like our opinions are similar but our takeaways are different.
Oubre's motor is a huge concern. But he did seem to learn a shit ton of defense at Kansas. I remember watching an early game this season, and he actually was facing the baseline at one point.
Johnson's motor has no questions. But I feel like he's got way more work on his jumper than it seems. I'm going back to some of the HS play I saw from him too. I just feel like he's too reliant on his athleticism. And in a league that doesn't really let you body up defensively as much as they do in college, I'm worried his defensive prowess won't translate great without some change in his workout routine.
Oubre to me has a more natural foundation to his shot. And I think he's going to measure in more athletically and more longer than Johnson. And I think I'd rather work with that. I'd rather try to either find a coach to keep his motor running, or someone who'll work with finding him specific roles that he can be worked into. Rather than Johnson who I'm afraid defenses will warp away from.
There is an interesting cluster in the draft around those guys. Winslow, Hezonja, and Devin Booker all bring a similar profile, but the sliders on which skills rate where are all over the place. And Winslow and Hezonja may have separated themselves some, but we still need to see the measurements. And Sam Dekker may have played himself into this.
Oubre might have the most potential- athletic and could be a shooter; Johnson has strength, if he were a few inches taller I'd say he was a top 5 pick.
Though there isn't a huge difference between sg and sf I don't know if there is a true sf in the draft outside of Sam dekker unless looney shows he can play the wing. Mudiay might be a sg. Booker might be the most under rated prospect right now.
Booker, Mario, Winslow, dekker, looney - I'd feel better about taking any of these over oubre or Johnson, but a pretty good group overall of 7 2/3's
[QUOTE=Thorpesaurous]That's weird because I feel like our opinions are similar but our takeaways are different.
Oubre's motor is a huge concern. But he did seem to learn a shit ton of defense at Kansas. I remember watching an early game this season, and he actually was facing the baseline at one point.
Johnson's motor has no questions. But I feel like he's got way more work on his jumper than it seems. I'm going back to some of the HS play I saw from him too. I just feel like he's too reliant on his athleticism. And in a league that doesn't really let you body up defensively as much as they do in college, I'm worried his defensive prowess won't translate great without some change in his workout routine.
Oubre to me has a more natural foundation to his shot. And I think he's going to measure in more athletically and more longer than Johnson. And I think I'd rather work with that. I'd rather try to either find a coach to keep his motor running, or someone who'll work with finding him specific roles that he can be worked into. Rather than Johnson who I'm afraid defenses will warp away from.
There is an interesting cluster in the draft around those guys. Winslow, Hezonja, and Devin Booker all bring a similar profile, but the sliders on which skills rate where are all over the place. And Winslow and Hezonja may have separated themselves some, but we still need to see the measurements. And Sam Dekker may have played himself into this.[/QUOTE]
Yeah, I think Oubre has the better tools but I have a hard time trusting a young kid with a questionable motor coming into the NBA and changing that when 1) he now has money and distractions like never before and 2) he will have to deal with limited minutes for the first time ever. I know it's most important how he projects long-term but a lot of prospects like him never recover from a rough first couple years.
I think who I would favor is completely situational. For example, I see Oubre mocked to Indy which I think would be great for him. Awesome mentor in Paul George, great FO leadership, and a coach who is a bit of a hard ass. But out of the top 6-8 team? I'd go Johnson over Oubre. I think the only top 10 team who I would favor Oubre is Charlotte because I think I'd rather kill myself than plug another wing who can't shoot into that line-up.
But yeah, this should be a pretty interesting draft. There is a cluster of wings and a cluster of PGs from pick 10 and onward that should make the 1st round pretty interesting.
[QUOTE=Jailblazers7]Yeah, I think Oubre has the better tools but I have a hard time trusting a young kid with a questionable motor coming into the NBA and changing that when 1) he now has money and distractions like never before and 2) he will have to deal with limited minutes for the first time ever. I know it's most important how he projects long-term but a lot of prospects like him never recover from a rough first couple years.
I think who I would favor is completely situational. For example, I see Oubre mocked to Indy which I think would be great for him. Awesome mentor in Paul George, great FO leadership, and a coach who is a bit of a hard ass. But out of the top 6-8 team? I'd go Johnson over Oubre. I think the only top 10 team who I would favor Oubre is Charlotte because I think I'd rather kill myself than plug another wing who can't shoot into that line-up.
But yeah, this should be a pretty interesting draft. There is a cluster of wings and a cluster of PGs from pick 10 and onward that should make the 1st round pretty interesting.[/QUOTE]
I think the counter to that would be mostly that he's 19 years old. And the small sample size of games he played in college may be the first time in his life he's had to live away from home, and been coached at that level, and played under that level of scrutiny. So it's possible the motor isn't a motor issue so much as it is a certain level of shyness, that he may very well grow out of.
Johnson's hope is he turns out like Tony Allen, a guy where the motor overcomes some technical flaws, in both cases their jumper.
Oubre has some Wiggins in him, not talent wise, but in that you hope he can grow out of the college doldrums. Something I think a lot of people are unwilling to believe, is that the college game is a bit more complex than the pro game in terms of strategy. There's more time to scout and prepare. And less restrictions in terms of rules. Fewer defensive limitations. Some increase physical allowances. Sometimes these young great athlete types lock up when they're finally being pushed mentally within a game they've never had to think about at all. And when they get to the NBA, the schemes stay more consistent, and they seem to do better.
I consider myself a bit of a draftnik, and one of the things that is really tough about guys cases like this, is that we don't get much access to what happens in the interview process. I know a lot of guys are really coached up going into these interviews, but it'd really help to suss out stuff like Motor if I could read into a guy like Oubre while sitting down with him for a few hours.
Kansas has also gone through a few of these guys lately.
Wiggins off the charts physicality looked weird not producing, and was paired up next to Jabari Parker's "it" factor.
And Ben McLemore, who measured up physically and had a more pure stroke while being younger, next to Victor Olidipo, who's jumper was more of a restructure, and while a comparable athlete, was both smaller and older.
And so far the Kansas guys have rounded into shape as pros over a short time. It makes me wonder if Self is pushing a ton of info at them. I wonder if it freezes them up mentally and causes them to not look as great in college as they eventually will. I wonder if that crash course in basketball helps them long run more than it helps Kansas and Self in the moment. It's something of the opposite of Calipari's somewhat simple systems that allow his athletes to use their athleticism without thinking as much and simply attacking on both ends.
It's also possible I'm wildly overthinking this.
And I agree this has a chance to be a really interesting draft. I like the tier thinking toward drafting, and the tiers feel deep this year. And there are weird clusters of prospects by position that seem to be clumped into tiers as well.
The PG position like you said. There's a good chunk of prospects that are clearly a tier or two behind that top level, but they're all over the place in style and skill set.
Thorpe what's your assessment on Booker? Is he a one dimensional catch and shoot guy? Or, does he have some untapped ability that he wasn't able to display playing on a loaded Kentucky squad?
[QUOTE=PJR]Thorpe what's your assessment on Booker? Is he a one dimensional catch and shoot guy? Or, does he have some untapped ability that he wasn't able to display playing on a loaded Kentucky squad?[/QUOTE]
I really like Booker. Truth be told I would probably take him over Stanley Johnson, depending a little on what my roster looked like. Although I was watching some combine stuff last night, and Johnson's shot may be closer than I gave him credit for, and I'm still sort of sifting through data on these guys.
But my take on Booker is that he's the best shooter in this draft. And in a league where shooting and spacing is becoming more and more important, you may be ahead of the curve by taking the draft's best shooter late lottery these days. In a few years that player profile may push you into the top ten irregardless of other flaws.
That said I do think there's some extra potential to be tapped in Booker. I'm interested to see how he measures physically. Because I totally got the impression he was not in great shape this season. He may be a guy who will grow into his body as he matures. And if his work ethic is good, an NBA training program and facilities may be something that turns a guy like this into a steal.
To me The Sixer's are desperate for shooting. And he would be a great fit for them at their second pick if he lasts. To me he may be worth using one of their second rounders to move up and get him if need be.
Those are some good points that I hadn't considered about Oubre. It would make a lot of sense that an instinctual athlete like him would freeze up when asked to process a lot more information. There are just a ton of variables when it comes to judging a guys mental make-up/motor. Was he just thinking too much as a freshman? Will a more open play-style be good or bad for a guy who might have a lower motor? I do like the thought of how he fits in with Kansas' recent picks. It's a very appealing narrative.
The one thing I kind of worry about with him is that he stands out most on tape when he is being active around the hoop. Good rebounder at the 3 spot and excels when he gets inside on offense. I'd be a little scared that he might fall in love with the jumper at the NBA level given the concerns about his effort.
I think I'd just feel much safer getting a known commodity and tireless worker like Johnson. But then again, those reason are probably exactly why Johnson is consistently mocked ahead of Oubre. Once you get to past the really bad team, most GMs are looking for potential but also immediate production because in theory those teams aren't that far away from the playoffs. You know Johnson can contribute right away but the same can't be said with a ton of confidence about Oubre.
[QUOTE=Jailblazers7]Those are some good points that I hadn't considered about Oubre. It would make a lot of sense that an instinctual athlete like him would freeze up when asked to process a lot more information. There are just a ton of variables when it comes to judging a guys mental make-up/motor. Was he just thinking too much as a freshman? Will a more open play-style be good or bad for a guy who might have a lower motor? I do like the thought of how he fits in with Kansas' recent picks. It's a very appealing narrative.
The one thing I kind of worry about with him is that he stands out most on tape when he is being active around the hoop. Good rebounder at the 3 spot and excels when he gets inside on offense. I'd be a little scared that he might fall in love with the jumper at the NBA level given the concerns about his effort.
I think I'd just feel much safer getting a known commodity and tireless worker like Johnson. But then again, those reason are probably exactly why Johnson is consistently mocked ahead of Oubre. Once you get to past the really bad team, most GMs are looking for potential but also immediate production because in theory those teams aren't that far away from the playoffs. You know Johnson can contribute right away but the same can't be said with a ton of confidence about Oubre.[/QUOTE]
I saw a piece on Johnson just last night on NBA TV's draft combine coverage, and his jump shooting numbers are a lot better than I thought they were. It's still a weakness. But there's more to work there than I somehow thought there was. He's not Aaron Gordon. But then they showed him shooting, and there's still a fundamental restructuring that I'm guessing will need to happen. Still, I'm probably undervalueing him.
There's also an element of team need involved. For example a team like Sixers in my opinion just have no room for another athlete that needs a shot doctor. Almost irregardless of how good an athlete he is.
Then again, we've all watched Justice Winslow fly up the draft boards. He was rated below Oubre and Johnson coming into the season. Along with 14 other guys, and he's now firmly in the second tier with the foreigners. And really the difference between him and Johnson is mostly that Winslow's previously assumed broken shot fell at a really good rate as the season moved along. Did it get better? Was it undervalued all along? Was he put in a better position to exploit by his coach and his teammates? Or did we just catch two 19 year old kids over a thirty game stretch where one just got a little hot while another went a little cold?
I like the structure of Winslow's shot better than Johnson's. And I also think he's a craftier ball handler while giving up little to nothing physically. So I do think he's a better prospect. But to me they're questions worth thinking about.
I'm a Stanley Johnson guy. Think he's going to do very well in the NBA. Won't ever be a star but will be very productive over the long haul.