||06-12-2010 02:54 PM
Situational Statistics: Shooting Guards (great read)
Evan Turner’s situational statistics support him as the second best prospect in this draft.
The third highest usage player in our sample at 21.4 possessions per-game (behind Dominique Jones and Aubrey Coleman), Turner’s limitations as a shooter are apparent on first glance. Despite scoring an average .929 points per-possession, he ranks first in overall field goal percentage at 51.2%. Clearly, Turner’s limitations from the perimeter hurt his productivity, but he was savvy enough to stick to what he was good at on the college level, excelling in a number of areas.
Turner ranks as the most efficient transition player in our rankings at 1.27 points per-possession, a testament to his ability to use his size and ball handling to make a major impact in the open floor, even though he only draws fouls on a slightly below average 9.6% of his fast break shots and a questionable 4.8% of his half court shots. His field goal percentage of 47.2% is the second best mark in non-transition sets, but he could definitely stand to get to the line at a higher rate to help his efficiency on the next level.
A limited spot up player because of a lack of touches (2 Pos/G) working off the ball as Ohio State’s primary ball-handler, Turner’s 0.7 PPP in isolation situations is below average as well. He compensates with impressive numbers on the pick and roll. With over 25.8% of his offense running coming from the two-man game, Turner scores a very impressive 1.029 PPP coming off of ball-screens. Clearly Turner is a player who will need the ball in his hands in the NBA to be successful.
Turner’s excellent shooting efficiency in half court settings is the result of his ability to get to the rim. His 5 shots at the rim per-game is good for third amongst his peers, and his 55.8% shooting is well above average. The majority of his 7.2 jump shots per-game come off of pull up shots, of which he hits a second ranking 42.3%. This part of his game is already tailor made to the NBA—which will help his transition significantly.
Though Turner had little trouble putting the ball in the basket last season, his lack of catch and shoot attempts (1.7 per-game) remains a concern. Though he won’t force many looks, Turner’s floor game won’t fully open up on the NBA level until he becomes a more capable shooter from range working off the ball. The degree to which he improves his shot will dictate how often he has to dominate the ball to put points on the board.
Ranking right around average in terms of usage at 17.4 possessions per-game and slightly above average at 0.961 PPP overall, Williams’ best asset in comparison to his peers is his ability to use his quickness to get to the line. He was fouled on an impressive 14.2% of his overall shots, leading our sample of prospects by more than 3%.
Despite ranking right around average in terms of half court field goal percentage (42.2%), Williams scores on a higher percentage (45.4%) of his non-fast break possessions than any other player. Clearly, his first step plays a major role in his ability to create contact at the rim. His role for Memphis certainly helped as well.
Although he spent nearly twice as many of his possessions playing off the ball in spot up situations than Evan Turner (17.2% vs. 9.5%), Williams got some 43% of his offense operating one-on-one or working off a pick. A capable jump shooter when left open (42.9%), but limited when defended (27.3%), the Duke transfer has the resume of a guard capable of sliding over to handle the ball next to a shooting point guard or remaining off the ball and slashing to the rim.
Williams only shot 1.9 pull up jumpers per-game last season, preferring to drive all the way to the rim where he shot an average 51.3%. Given his lack of physical strength, Williams will need to continue to hone his shooting ability in the mid-range area to become a more complete offensive threat at the shooting guard position.
The most impressive aspect of Jones’ resume is his 46.5% scoring ratio, indicating that he scores at least a point on nearly half of his extremely high 21.6 possessions per-game. The level of efficiency ranks first in this group, and his .976 PPP and 11% shots fouled are well above average as well. Jones is both a high usage and high efficiency scorer, which is a rare combination to find.
With nearly 20% of his touches coming in transition, Jones gets to the line better than any of his peers on the break, drawing a trip to the line on 21.6% of those possessions. The USF product doesn’t excel in any one particular offensive situation, though he is a solid isolation player. Much of his success comes from his ability to finish at the rim. His 1.22 points per-possession as a finisher place him third amongst this group. That quality should lend itself well to the NBA.
The reason Jones doesn’t excel in any one particular area is because he isn’t a terribly efficient jump shooter. An average shooter when left open off the catch (39%), and a below average pull up shooter (32.4%)
One of the lower usage players in this group at just 12.6 possessions per-game, Bradley scored on a slightly below average 40.8% of his touches. With 24% of his possessions coming in transition, the freshman shot 53.3% on the fast break, and scored on a below average 38.2% of his half court possessions.
While he’s certainly not the most dynamic offensive threat at this point, Bradley was very solid in spot up situations. With a sizeable 30.5% of his touches coming from such opportunities, he shot a second ranked adjusted field goal percentage of 60.9%. The least prolific player running the pick and roll (.57 PPP) and a mediocre isolation player, Bradley was heavily reliant on his jump shot to score points.
Nearly 75.7% of his half court shots were jumpers, and he led all players with a 43.1% shooting percentage on such attempts. Despite being a prolific shooter, Bradley is the worst finisher in this group, averaging 0.754 points per-shot. One of the top unguarded and guarded catch and shoot players in this group (1.347 PPP and 1.149 PPP), he proved capable from the perimeter during his time at Texas, but struggled at the rim.
A player once projected to be selected near the top of the lottery, Willie Warren’s fall from grace shows in his numbers. He turned the ball over on 22.7% of his overall possessions, the highest amongst twos projected to be selected in the draft. Warren sits right at the average in overall scoring percentage at 42.5%, but is second lowest prospect in terms of transition scoring percentage at 45.1%, nearly 20% less than Evan Turner.
On the positive side, Warren shot 47.8% from the field in half court situations, the highest mark amongst all prospects. Much of his success against a set defense comes from his ability to score in isolation situations. His explosiveness played a key role in his 52.5% shooting in one-on-one scenarios –the highest percentage on our rankings. He also shot the highest adjusted field goal percentage in pick and roll situations at 60%. These are qualities that are in high demand in today’s NBA, and could make him an intriguing change of pace option in some team’s second unit, granted he’s able to hone the rest of his game.
Warren’s outstanding numbers in those sets are largely result of his ability to get to the rim and finish athletically. Warren ranks as the top finisher in our group at 1.31 PPP in a slightly below average 3 shots per-game at the rim. Similarly, he is the second best pull up jump shooter at 1.04 PPP in a meager 1.6 possessions in game. He ranks below average in both catch and shoot metrics, and it seems clear that Warren wasn’t always playing to his strengths last season.
Looking at those numbers alone, Warren seems like a high caliber offensive weapon who could win games for his team when his shot was falling, but there’s much more to the story. Despite his outstanding shooting in pick and roll situations and prolific one-on-one ability, he turned the ball over on nearly one-third of his possessions running the two-man game and on a quarter of his isolation touches. He was also the worst spot up player in terms of PPP (0.72).