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-   -   Keith Bogans has scored... (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=209142)

jasonresno 02-15-2011 07:33 PM

Keith Bogans has scored...
 
...in double digits FOUR times this entire year and three of those times came IN A ROW at the beginning of November. He has also been held to 3 points or under THIRTY times this season.

My question to you, steady Bulls fans, is his defense so good as to make up for this glaring hole?

A tired subject, I'm sure, but I haven't seen anyone point out those two stats yet and it really puts his mediocrity under a microscope.

SinJackal 02-15-2011 08:51 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
As long as Bogans isn't shooting a ton of bricks a game, his not scoring a lot isn't actually hurting the offense as much as it might seem. He isn't wasting offensive possesions with chucking and bad scoring efficiency, so it's hard to hate him that much. All I ask is that he hit the open shots he takes at a better rate than he has been, and he will be more bearable.

He's been pretty good that last few games. 7 points on 3 shots, then 11 points on 5 shots, then 6 points on 2 shots tonight so far. He's been pretty efficient this month in general actually. He isn't a volume scorer, so mainly you should just look at his efficiency to see if he's hurting the team :P

He's only playing 17 1/2 minutes and getting about 4 PPG. Kurt Thomas is playing just over 24 minutes a game and only scoring 4.8 a game. No one's complaining about him, and he's scoring less points per minute, and at slightly lower efficiency as Bogans. :P Bogans really isn't doing that bad given what his role is.

Bogans:

.531 TS%

.523 eFG%

Not bad at all for a guy who "sucks offensively". :P

Those stats should be up after today's game too since he's scored at an eFG% and TS% rate of 1.500% for both (so far)

ballinhun8 02-15-2011 10:01 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
I'll agree that he was terrible the first couple of months but he's been turning it around lately. He's shooting the ball well and playing solid defense. And distributing the ball well and playing within the system as his role.

But with that said, I hope the Bulls don't fall in love with his recent production. Just like Asik. I remember a couple years back where Tyrus was putting up monster stats just before the trade deadline where we could've got Amare and the Bulls ended keeping Tyrus.

If we can improve without losing too much then go for it. Still if we kept Bogans and improved the SG then I would like our depth with Bogans, Brewer, and Korver off the bench.

Glide2keva 02-15-2011 10:39 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SinJackal
As long as Bogans isn't shooting a ton of bricks a game, his not scoring a lot isn't actually hurting the offense as much as it might seem. He isn't wasting offensive possesions with chucking and bad scoring efficiency, so it's hard to hate him that much. All I ask is that he hit the open shots he takes at a better rate than he has been, and he will be more bearable.

He's been pretty good that last few games. 7 points on 3 shots, then 11 points on 5 shots, then 6 points on 2 shots tonight so far. He's been pretty efficient this month in general actually. He isn't a volume scorer, so mainly you should just look at his efficiency to see if he's hurting the team :P

He's only playing 17 1/2 minutes and getting about 4 PPG. Kurt Thomas is playing just over 24 minutes a game and only scoring 4.8 a game. No one's complaining about him, and he's scoring less points per minute, and at slightly lower efficiency as Bogans. :P Bogans really isn't doing that bad given what his role is.

Bogans:

.531 TS%

.523 eFG%

Not bad at all for a guy who "sucks offensively". :P

Those stats should be up after today's game too since he's scored at an eFG% and TS% rate of 1.500% for both (so far)

Why do people rely on TS% and eFG%?

Crystallas 02-15-2011 11:42 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
Keith Bogans deserves some props. Maybe he was hibernating until the 2nd half of the season.

SinJackal 02-16-2011 04:54 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Glide2keva
Why do people rely on TS% and eFG%?


"Rely on"? Is that some kind of left-handed insult? TS% and eFG% is more accurate than just looking at 3pt% and FG%.

Why? Because when most people look at just FG% and 3pt%, they don't look at the volume of threes they're taking, and the volume of shots they're missing. They just look at the %'s, and then incorrectly claim a player is worse than he really is (or in some cases better than he really is).

eFG% shows Bogans' ability to score points based on the amount of FGAs he takes. It's more accurate than just saying look his FG% is just 40% and his 3pt% is just 37%.

Since Bogans mostly just takes threes, he's actually scoring at a significantly higher rate than a guy who just takes mostly twos and shoots 40%.

Bogans's efg%: .533. Which means, if a player were to score the same amount of points as Bogans' at the same ratio of shots, but only took two pointers, they'd have to be a 53.3% FG% scorer.

The real question is, why wouldn't you use eFG%? Bogans is clearly not NEARLY the inefficienct scorer some of you guys are making him out to be. Bogans simply does not score large volumes of points. He's a role player.

jasonresno 02-16-2011 05:39 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SinJackal
"Rely on"? Is that some kind of left-handed insult? TS% and eFG% is more accurate than just looking at 3pt% and FG%.

Why? Because when most people look at just FG% and 3pt%, they don't look at the volume of threes they're taking, and the volume of shots they're missing. They just look at the %'s, and then incorrectly claim a player is worse than he really is (or in some cases better than he really is).

eFG% shows Bogans' ability to score points based on the amount of FGAs he takes. It's more accurate than just saying look his FG% is just 40% and his 3pt% is just 37%.

Since Bogans mostly just takes threes, he's actually scoring at a significantly higher rate than a guy who just takes mostly twos and shoots 40%.

Bogans's efg%: .533. Which means, if a player were to score the same amount of points as Bogans' at the same ratio of shots, but only took two pointers, they'd have to be a 53.3% FG% scorer.

The real question is, why wouldn't you use eFG%? Bogans is clearly not NEARLY the inefficienct scorer some of you guys are making him out to be. Bogans simply does not score large volumes of points. He's a role player.

Doesn't relying on the ratio assume that he's makes/misses would remain consistent? Whose to say if Bogans was taking more shots he wouldn't be missing more?

But regardless: IF Bogans keeps playing like he has been these last few weeks... We don't need to make a move at all and I'd say we're twice as dangerous.

tamaraw08 02-16-2011 10:34 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SinJackal
"Rely on"? Is that some kind of left-handed insult? TS% and eFG% is more accurate than just looking at 3pt% and FG%.

Why? Because when most people look at just FG% and 3pt%, they don't look at the volume of threes they're taking, and the volume of shots they're missing. They just look at the %'s, and then incorrectly claim a player is worse than he really is (or in some cases better than he really is).

eFG% shows Bogans' ability to score points based on the amount of FGAs he takes. It's more accurate than just saying look his FG% is just 40% and his 3pt% is just 37%.

Since Bogans mostly just takes threes, he's actually scoring at a significantly higher rate than a guy who just takes mostly twos and shoots 40%.

Bogans's efg%: .533. Which means, if a player were to score the same amount of points as Bogans' at the same ratio of shots, but only took two pointers, they'd have to be a 53.3% FG% scorer.

The real question is, why wouldn't you use eFG%? Bogans is clearly not NEARLY the inefficienct scorer some of you guys are making him out to be. Bogans simply does not score large volumes of points. He's a role player.


Thanks for enlightening us about those stats you mentioned.
My problem with Bogans is that he is waaay OVER selective with his shots, passing up shots that would be considered makeable with a PURE/accurate shooter. My best guess is that Keith has been really worried that he'll miss a TON of shots forcing Thibs to yank him out sooner.
This forces Rose and Deng to shoot more than their usual number of shots. Rose's attempts per game is up by nearly 3 resulting to a decreased % from 48.9 to 44.5%. Deng's 3pt attempts has been up from 1.2 to 3.2 with a lower % from 38.6 to 33.9. I strongly believe if they didn't do this, they would be called for a 24 sec violation or even get a worst shot selection.
What is interesting is the fact that even if Bogans has been shooting well the past 2-3 weeks, his playing time has been almost IDENTICAL. It just seems to me that he is like a "token starter" a stop gap so Brewer or Korver would sneak in the game and inject life esp to their bench, hoping that the other coaches would not be prepared to deal with them.
The biggest question is if this current setup, Bogans starting and eventually just playing 18 mins/game would be sufficient against the top teams like Boston, Miami and Orlando when they REALLY play stingy defense in the playoffs. :confusedshrug:

SinJackal 02-16-2011 11:17 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jasonresno
Doesn't relying on the ratio assume that he's makes/misses would remain consistent? Whose to say if Bogans was taking more shots he wouldn't be missing more?

But regardless: IF Bogans keeps playing like he has been these last few weeks... We don't need to make a move at all and I'd say we're twice as dangerous.


That's the thing, Bogans isn't a big volume scorer. I do think his efficiency would be down if he was taking a bunch more shots. Thing is, he doesn't. He knows he won't make them at a good rate. . .so instead he just takes the shots he can handle instead of forcing the issue (he's a role player with good self control. . .that's a good thing, not bad. :D ..)

Bogans is that rare type of guy who doesn't keep jacking up shots to "get his", he just takes shots that help the team, and doens't pass on the open shots where he gets a good look. That's pretty much all that's asked of Bogans, and while his FG% is low, his 3pt% is high, and since most of the shots he takes are threes, his actual overall scoring efficiency is pretty good. Though yes, he doesn't score in volume. We have other guys for that though. . .Rose, Boozer, and to a lesser extent, Deng and Noah.

Bogans is just a 17 minute per game defensive guy. How many points should he be scoring exactly?


Quote:

Originally Posted by tamaraw08
Thanks for enlightening us about those stats you mentioned.
My problem with Bogans is that he is waaay OVER selective with his shots, passing up shots that would be considered makeable with a PURE/accurate shooter. My best guess is that Keith has been really worried that he'll miss a TON of shots forcing Thibs to yank him out sooner.
This forces Rose and Deng to shoot more than their usual number of shots. Rose's attempts per game is up by nearly 3 resulting to a decreased % from 48.9 to 44.5%. Deng's 3pt attempts has been up from 1.2 to 3.2 with a lower % from 38.6 to 33.9. I strongly believe if they didn't do this, they would be called for a 24 sec violation or even get a worst shot selection.
What is interesting is the fact that even if Bogans has been shooting well the past 2-3 weeks, his playing time has been almost IDENTICAL. It just seems to me that he is like a "token starter" a stop gap so Brewer or Korver would sneak in the game and inject life esp to their bench, hoping that the other coaches would not be prepared to deal with them.
The biggest question is if this current setup, Bogans starting and eventually just playing 18 mins/game would be sufficient against the top teams like Boston, Miami and Orlando when they REALLY play stingy defense in the playoffs. :confusedshrug:


I agree on the times Bogans passes up shots sometimes. When he's wide open for a three, sometimes he will bumble the ball after a pass and then dribble out and pass back to Rose instead of get a clean shot off.

Thing is though, we brought in Boozer to take a bunch of extra shots. Bogans was never meant to take many more shots than he is now. At most Bogans could be taking one more shot per game without probably just hurting the team in the long run.

At the same time though, I'm looking at the alternative. Guys like Parker who are "more aggressive". Despite his better 3pt%, his overall efficiency is worse.

So while he's definitely not contributing 8-10 PPG which would be cool, at least he isn't wasting possessions by taking bad shots. Remember . . .scoring is good, but bricking is equally negative as a score would've been positive. Not making a shot adds no positive, but not bricking one adds no negatives.

He doesn't add a big positive offensively, but he doesn't waste shots either. . .I'm sort of looking at it at the molecular level basically. I'm cool with Bogans' not scoring a lot since he at least isn't bricking a lot too. I would much rather Rose, Boozer, Noah, and Deng be sharing those spare 1-2 shots that Bogans isn't taking.

I'm with you though, if he somehow was better, and got open more I'd like that. I just hope you guys realize that Bogans isn't actually hurting the team by not getting more points since when he does take the shots since he's at least not bricking and turning the ball over a lot :P I'd be more annoyed though if he was playing 28-30 mins a game and only getting 4 points. 17 though. . .he's just a roleplayer guys :P and has been better lately.

tamaraw08 02-19-2011 01:21 AM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SinJackal
.

I agree on the times Bogans passes up shots sometimes. When he's wide open for a three, sometimes he will bumble the ball after a pass and then dribble out and pass back to Rose instead of get a clean shot off.

Thing is though, we brought in Boozer to take a bunch of extra shots. Bogans was never meant to take many more shots than he is now. At most Bogans could be taking one more shot per game without probably just hurting the team in the long run.

At the same time though, I'm looking at the alternative. Guys like Parker who are "more aggressive". Despite his better 3pt%, his overall efficiency is worse.

So while he's definitely not contributing 8-10 PPG which would be cool, at least he isn't wasting possessions by taking bad shots. Remember . . .scoring is good, but bricking is equally negative as a score would've been positive. Not making a shot adds no positive, but not bricking one adds no negatives.

He doesn't add a big positive offensively, but he doesn't waste shots either. . .I'm sort of looking at it at the molecular level basically. I'm cool with Bogans' not scoring a lot since he at least isn't bricking a lot too. I would much rather Rose, Boozer, Noah, and Deng be sharing those spare 1-2 shots that Bogans isn't taking.

I'm with you though, if he somehow was better, and got open more I'd like that. I just hope you guys realize that Bogans isn't actually hurting the team by not getting more points since when he does take the shots since he's at least not bricking and turning the ball over a lot :P I'd be more annoyed though if he was playing 28-30 mins a game and only getting 4 points. 17 though. . .he's just a roleplayer guys :P and has been better lately.


YOu brought up an interesting point about Boozer bec Carlos is already taking 15 shots per game(Taj and Warrick were taking significanly less shots last year), Rose is taking about 3 more attempts for 20/game, Deng taking 3 more 3pt shots/game, so how many shots exactly do you want them to take just bec Bogans is being OVER selective with his shots. :confusedshrug:
While I agree that he really doesn't hurt the team bec he doesn't brick too many shots, I believe he is not exactly helping this club either bec of his lack of confidence, if he is, he would be playing more than 18 mins/game.
Like I said in other threads, I think its unfair to simply look at Anthony Parker's stats bec he has a different situation at Cleveland where his defender every game has NO REASON to leave him open, averaging 40% from the 3pt area with a hand on his face. On the other hand Keith is getting MORE open looks bec of the extra attention on Rose and Boozer.
To me Bogans is a token starter and stop gap so Brewer and Korver and sneak in and provide energy to the bench and hoping that opposing coaches would not be thoroughy prepared to deal with them.

ljsbb27 02-19-2011 06:04 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
I'll give him credit for stepping up as of late and being more of a contributor, but in my eyes the fact remains that he is surely our weakest link and if we can upgrade the SG spot (which ultimately we absolutely have to if we want to seriously contend) than why not?

But I will admit that if we have to give up any of our main guys in order to do it this current season than I would pass. We have a good group of guys here and we shouldn't break it up unless its really worth it.

The offseason will bring us a great oppurtunity to upgrade without substracting what we have now whether it be through free agents or the draft.

Will have options and the front office along with the coaching staff will be able to step back and see exactly what would be a great inclusion into our core.

Just some quick ideas on my end even though I know its a while away and that we have a great current season going on now to focus on.

Guys I would target:

Draft- Jordan Hamilton, Alec Burks, LaceDarius Dunn, Malcolm Lee, Demetri McCamey.

Feel like we need a SG or a combo type of guy that can play both guard spots. A backup PG wouldn't hurt either since Watson can play some 2.

Free Agents- Jason Richardson, Nick Young, JR Smith, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Marcus Thornton.

VishaltotheG 02-19-2011 06:51 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
If we can sign a Marcus Thornton, we are set for life

tamaraw08 02-19-2011 09:30 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ljsbb27
I'll give him credit for stepping up as of late and being more of a contributor, but in my eyes the fact remains that he is surely our weakest link and if we can upgrade the SG spot (which ultimately we absolutely have to if we want to seriously contend) than why not?

But I will admit that if we have to give up any of our main guys in order to do it this current season than I would pass. We have a good group of guys here and we shouldn't break it up unless its really worth it.

The offseason will bring us a great oppurtunity to upgrade without substracting what we have now whether it be through free agents or the draft.

Will have options and the front office along with the coaching staff will be able to step back and see exactly what would be a great inclusion into our core.

Just some quick ideas on my end even though I know its a while away and that we have a great current season going on now to focus on.

Guys I would target:

Draft- Jordan Hamilton, Alec Burks, LaceDarius Dunn, Malcolm Lee, Demetri McCamey.

Feel like we need a SG or a combo type of guy that can play both guard spots. A backup PG wouldn't hurt either since Watson can play some 2.

Free Agents- Jason Richardson, Nick Young, JR Smith, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Marcus Thornton.


My question to you is who exactly do you consider as a "main guy"?:confusedshrug:
Do you consider a guy like Omar Asik as one? IMO, he is not esp with Kurt Thomas proving that he can still hang and provide very decent quality minutes, starting and battling against the best after Noah started to miss games.
Im not saying Omar has no future and is not a decent player with no potential but when Noah comes back, he is their 3rd center in line.
In the playoffs, Noah is projected to play about 34 -38 mins, with Kurt backing him up. If Noah gets in foul trouble Kurt can hold the fort for as long as 28-36 mins and if too gets in foul trouble, Boozer has the bulk while Taj has this long wingspan to match up for as long as 12 mins until Kurt and Noah gets back in the 2nd half.
Ideally for me, I would not give up Asik but if you are gaining a very good defensive minded SG who can hit the 3pt shots like Courtney Lee esp his experience with Orlando in the finals, then I would have to do it. I'll offer 2 draft picks first and JJ then....
Those college players you mentioned looks good, but who knows really if they can contribute right away. Boozer and Deng are not getting any younger and in 2 yrs their skills will erode and the window would soon close. This is a great opportunity to plug the hole and REALLY CONTEND this year.
But hey as long as they are consulting Thibs about this and if he truly believes they can win with the current lineup then so be it.

Crystallas 02-19-2011 11:38 PM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
Wait a minute now. You can't fault Asik for being a rookie. You also can't asume Courtney Lee will get us any further in the playoffs this year, than what the Bulls can do already, including what they can do with Asik next year + that SG upgrade we have been begging for.

tamaraw08 02-20-2011 01:09 AM

Re: Keith Bogans has scored...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Crystallas
Wait a minute now. You can't fault Asik for being a rookie. You also can't asume Courtney Lee will get us any further in the playoffs this year, than what the Bulls can do already, including what they can do with Asik next year + that SG upgrade we have been begging for.


Nobody can assume anything, even you who really thinks they can get an SG upgrade next year. But I strongly believe that Lee is much quicker with his feet to keep in step with the best/very fast SGs like Ray Allen, Wade etc as compared to Bogans and Brewer plus he is also a better shooter than Bogans and Brewer from the perimeter.
Im with the majority here who beleives that Bogans is more of a bench/minor player, unfortunately Brewer and Korver are also more fit as bench players.
I don't dislike Asik but the reality is, he is a 3rd string center behind Noah and the veteran Kurt Thomas. If I have my way, ill offer 2-3 future first rounders before I let go of Omar and ofcourse if Thibs don't think Courtney Lee is the answer, then Im fine with it. All I hope and pray is that Thibs is being consulted by these roster decisions.


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