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-   -   Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=88484)

bagelred 05-20-2008 09:15 AM

Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Chad Ford:

Quote:

The lottery originally was developed to help the NBA's worst teams rebuild by having the highest pick in the draft. But often the results haven't had exactly that effect.

Since 1990, only four teams with the worst record have won the lottery: the Orlando Magic in 2004, the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2003, the Philadelphia 76ers in 1996 and the New Jersey Nets in 1990.

The team with the second-best probability of winning the lottery has fared even worse, winning the lottery just twice: the Magic in 1992 and the San Antonio Spurs in 1997.

Chad Ford doesn't understand that its a LOTTERY.

Since 1990, there have been 18 lottery drafts. The chances of worst team winning lottery are 25%, based on ping pong balls. So, 25% of 18, is 4.5. Therefore, we would expect worst team to win 4 or 5 times in last 18 years. FOUR teams with worst record have won, exactly as we would expect.

The 2nd worst team has about a 20% chance of winning. So in the last 18 years, we would expect 2nd worst team to win 3.6 times. This is slightly less, 2nd worst has only won twice.

But someone please explain to Ford its a LOTTERY. He doesn't understand.

biisak 05-20-2008 09:18 AM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bagelred
Chad Ford:



Chad Ford doesn't understand that its a LOTTERY.

Since 1990, there have been 18 lottery drafts. The chances of worst team winning lottery are 25%, based on ping pong balls. So, 25% of 18, is 4.5. Therefore, we would expect worst team to win 4 or 5 times in last 18 years. FOUR teams with worst record have won, exactly as we would expect.

The 2nd worst team has about a 20% chance of winning. So in the last 18 years, we would expect 2nd worst team to win 3.6 times. This is slightly less, 2nd worst has only won twice.

But someone please explain to Ford its a LOTTERY. He doesn't understand.


Actually most of this board have the exact same problem, itīs called bad-with-math-and-probabilities-syndrome.

Then again the average age and so on would make you think that ESPN would be better.

chains5000 05-20-2008 09:21 AM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Now someone will come and post something about conspiracies in the draft...

2LeTTeRS 05-20-2008 09:27 AM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
How does this show that he doesn't understand the lottery? His point was to show that the lottery doesn't guarantee the team with the worst or 2nd worst record end up with the top pick of the draft, and he proved that by saying that they didn't end up with the top pick more than 1/2 the time. When you're writing for the masses and not for basketball junkies like us a lot of times you don't get as specific with the information because it just goes over the head of most people.

bagelred 05-20-2008 09:30 AM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 2LeTTeRS
How does this show that he doesn't understand the lottery? His point was to show that the lottery doesn't guarantee the team with the worst or 2nd worst record end up with the top pick of the draft, and he proved that by saying that they didn't end up with the top pick more than 1/2 the time. When you're writing for the masses and not for basketball junkies like us a lot of times you don't get as specific with the information because it just goes over the head of most people.


The first sentence implies that the lottery is flawed, that the worst teams should win more often. When the lottery has done exactly what its supposed to.

biisak 05-20-2008 09:33 AM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 2LeTTeRS
How does this show that he doesn't understand the lottery? His point was to show that the lottery doesn't guarantee the team with the worst or 2nd worst record end up with the top pick of the draft, and he proved that by saying that they didn't end up with the top pick more than 1/2 the time. When you're writing for the masses and not for basketball junkies like us a lot of times you don't get as specific with the information because it just goes over the head of most people.

'

Doesnīt take a basketballjunky to react to someone stating something that just isnīt true just to make headlines. Itīs going over the heads of most people on this board and most people here would call themself junkies.

MaxFly 05-20-2008 09:37 AM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by biisak
Actually most of this board have the exact same problem, itīs called bad-with-math-and-probabilities-syndrome.

Then again the average age and so on would make you think that ESPN would be better.


Spot on.

tontoz 05-20-2008 10:29 AM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Actually i think Ford is just saying the lottery should be more weighted to the worst teams. Statistically the single most likely outcome for the team with the worst record is the 4th pick, which has happened the last two years.

There really is no reason to have 14 teams in the lottery. The number of teams should probably be cut down and the lottery weighted more towards the worst teams.

Phenith 05-20-2008 10:47 AM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tontoz
Actually i think Ford is just saying the lottery should be more weighted to the worst teams. Statistically the single most likely outcome for the team with the worst record is the 4th pick, which has happened the last two years.

There really is no reason to have 14 teams in the lottery. The number of teams should probably be cut down and the lottery weighted more towards the worst teams.


The problem with weighting it even more to the worst teams makes it even more benifitial to "tank" when you know you aren't going to make the playoffs. Miami put it into total shut down at the end of the year playing a bunch of D League guys, 25% is a high enough chance for them after that sickness.

youngnignorant 05-20-2008 12:00 PM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
youre a moron

bagelred 05-20-2008 12:09 PM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Phenith
The problem with weighting it even more to the worst teams makes it even more benifitial to "tank" when you know you aren't going to make the playoffs. Miami put it into total shut down at the end of the year playing a bunch of D League guys, 25% is a high enough chance for them after that sickness.


Agreed. They do the lottery to prevent teams from tanking. Why should Miami be guaranteed #1? They are already guaranteed a 1 - 4 spot.

InspiredLebowski 05-20-2008 12:17 PM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Nobody seems to remember that the ping pong balls only determine the top 3 picks. After that it goes in inverse order of record.

tontoz 05-20-2008 12:19 PM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Teams are tanking anyway (Miami, Memphis). It isn't like the current system is preventing tanking.

But when the team with the worst record is most likely to get the 4th pick the percentages are a little skewed.

bagelred 05-20-2008 12:22 PM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tontoz
Teams are tanking anyway (Miami, Memphis). It isn't like the current system is preventing tanking.

But when the team with the worst record is most likely to get the 4th pick the percentages are a little skewed.


I like it this way. One pick in basketball could change your whole franchise for the next 15 years. If, let's say, Shaq is going to be #1, why should teams that tank get such a big advantage.

I like it this way. Why should the Heat get the #1 for literally tanking the whole season? They don't even deserve it.

tontoz 05-20-2008 12:27 PM

Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bagelred
I like it this way. One pick in basketball could change your whole franchise for the next 15 years. If, let's say, Shaq is going to be #1, why should teams that tank get such a big advantage.

I like it this way. Why should the Heat get the #1 for literally tanking the whole season? They don't even deserve it.


You aren't making any sense. Nobody is talking about getting rid of the lottery and teams will tank regardless of what the percentages are.

The fact that there is a lottery will prevent the worst team from being a sure thing to get the number 1 pick.

But right now the team with the worst record has a 25% chance to get the 1st pick and a 36% chance to get the 4th pick. That doesn't make sense.


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