Originally Posted by Thorpesaurous
That's weird because I feel like our opinions are similar but our takeaways are different.
Oubre's motor is a huge concern. But he did seem to learn a shit ton of defense at Kansas. I remember watching an early game this season, and he actually was facing the baseline at one point.
Johnson's motor has no questions. But I feel like he's got way more work on his jumper than it seems. I'm going back to some of the HS play I saw from him too. I just feel like he's too reliant on his athleticism. And in a league that doesn't really let you body up defensively as much as they do in college, I'm worried his defensive prowess won't translate great without some change in his workout routine.
Oubre to me has a more natural foundation to his shot. And I think he's going to measure in more athletically and more longer than Johnson. And I think I'd rather work with that. I'd rather try to either find a coach to keep his motor running, or someone who'll work with finding him specific roles that he can be worked into. Rather than Johnson who I'm afraid defenses will warp away from.
There is an interesting cluster in the draft around those guys. Winslow, Hezonja, and Devin Booker all bring a similar profile, but the sliders on which skills rate where are all over the place. And Winslow and Hezonja may have separated themselves some, but we still need to see the measurements. And Sam Dekker may have played himself into this.
Yeah, I think Oubre has the better tools but I have a hard time trusting a young kid with a questionable motor coming into the NBA and changing that when 1) he now has money and distractions like never before and 2) he will have to deal with limited minutes for the first time ever. I know it's most important how he projects long-term but a lot of prospects like him never recover from a rough first couple years.
I think who I would favor is completely situational. For example, I see Oubre mocked to Indy which I think would be great for him. Awesome mentor in Paul George, great FO leadership, and a coach who is a bit of a hard ass. But out of the top 6-8 team? I'd go Johnson over Oubre. I think the only top 10 team who I would favor Oubre is Charlotte because I think I'd rather kill myself than plug another wing who can't shoot into that line-up.
But yeah, this should be a pretty interesting draft. There is a cluster of wings and a cluster of PGs from pick 10 and onward that should make the 1st round pretty interesting.