Originally Posted by Jailblazers7
Yeah, I think Oubre has the better tools but I have a hard time trusting a young kid with a questionable motor coming into the NBA and changing that when 1) he now has money and distractions like never before and 2) he will have to deal with limited minutes for the first time ever. I know it's most important how he projects long-term but a lot of prospects like him never recover from a rough first couple years.
I think who I would favor is completely situational. For example, I see Oubre mocked to Indy which I think would be great for him. Awesome mentor in Paul George, great FO leadership, and a coach who is a bit of a hard ass. But out of the top 6-8 team? I'd go Johnson over Oubre. I think the only top 10 team who I would favor Oubre is Charlotte because I think I'd rather kill myself than plug another wing who can't shoot into that line-up.
But yeah, this should be a pretty interesting draft. There is a cluster of wings and a cluster of PGs from pick 10 and onward that should make the 1st round pretty interesting.
I think the counter to that would be mostly that he's 19 years old. And the small sample size of games he played in college may be the first time in his life he's had to live away from home, and been coached at that level, and played under that level of scrutiny. So it's possible the motor isn't a motor issue so much as it is a certain level of shyness, that he may very well grow out of.
Johnson's hope is he turns out like Tony Allen, a guy where the motor overcomes some technical flaws, in both cases their jumper.
Oubre has some Wiggins in him, not talent wise, but in that you hope he can grow out of the college doldrums. Something I think a lot of people are unwilling to believe, is that the college game is a bit more complex than the pro game in terms of strategy. There's more time to scout and prepare. And less restrictions in terms of rules. Fewer defensive limitations. Some increase physical allowances. Sometimes these young great athlete types lock up when they're finally being pushed mentally within a game they've never had to think about at all. And when they get to the NBA, the schemes stay more consistent, and they seem to do better.
I consider myself a bit of a draftnik, and one of the things that is really tough about guys cases like this, is that we don't get much access to what happens in the interview process. I know a lot of guys are really coached up going into these interviews, but it'd really help to suss out stuff like Motor if I could read into a guy like Oubre while sitting down with him for a few hours.
Kansas has also gone through a few of these guys lately.
Wiggins off the charts physicality looked weird not producing, and was paired up next to Jabari Parker's "it" factor.
And Ben McLemore, who measured up physically and had a more pure stroke while being younger, next to Victor Olidipo, who's jumper was more of a restructure, and while a comparable athlete, was both smaller and older.
And so far the Kansas guys have rounded into shape as pros over a short time. It makes me wonder if Self is pushing a ton of info at them. I wonder if it freezes them up mentally and causes them to not look as great in college as they eventually will. I wonder if that crash course in basketball helps them long run more than it helps Kansas and Self in the moment. It's something of the opposite of Calipari's somewhat simple systems that allow his athletes to use their athleticism without thinking as much and simply attacking on both ends.
It's also possible I'm wildly overthinking this.
And I agree this has a chance to be a really interesting draft. I like the tier thinking toward drafting, and the tiers feel deep this year. And there are weird clusters of prospects by position that seem to be clumped into tiers as well.
The PG position like you said. There's a good chunk of prospects that are clearly a tier or two behind that top level, but they're all over the place in style and skill set.