Originally Posted by Jailblazers7
Those are some good points that I hadn't considered about Oubre. It would make a lot of sense that an instinctual athlete like him would freeze up when asked to process a lot more information. There are just a ton of variables when it comes to judging a guys mental make-up/motor. Was he just thinking too much as a freshman? Will a more open play-style be good or bad for a guy who might have a lower motor? I do like the thought of how he fits in with Kansas' recent picks. It's a very appealing narrative.
The one thing I kind of worry about with him is that he stands out most on tape when he is being active around the hoop. Good rebounder at the 3 spot and excels when he gets inside on offense. I'd be a little scared that he might fall in love with the jumper at the NBA level given the concerns about his effort.
I think I'd just feel much safer getting a known commodity and tireless worker like Johnson. But then again, those reason are probably exactly why Johnson is consistently mocked ahead of Oubre. Once you get to past the really bad team, most GMs are looking for potential but also immediate production because in theory those teams aren't that far away from the playoffs. You know Johnson can contribute right away but the same can't be said with a ton of confidence about Oubre.
I saw a piece on Johnson just last night on NBA TV's draft combine coverage, and his jump shooting numbers are a lot better than I thought they were. It's still a weakness. But there's more to work there than I somehow thought there was. He's not Aaron Gordon. But then they showed him shooting, and there's still a fundamental restructuring that I'm guessing will need to happen. Still, I'm probably undervalueing him.
There's also an element of team need involved. For example a team like Sixers in my opinion just have no room for another athlete that needs a shot doctor. Almost irregardless of how good an athlete he is.
Then again, we've all watched Justice Winslow fly up the draft boards. He was rated below Oubre and Johnson coming into the season. Along with 14 other guys, and he's now firmly in the second tier with the foreigners. And really the difference between him and Johnson is mostly that Winslow's previously assumed broken shot fell at a really good rate as the season moved along. Did it get better? Was it undervalued all along? Was he put in a better position to exploit by his coach and his teammates? Or did we just catch two 19 year old kids over a thirty game stretch where one just got a little hot while another went a little cold?
I like the structure of Winslow's shot better than Johnson's. And I also think he's a craftier ball handler while giving up little to nothing physically. So I do think he's a better prospect. But to me they're questions worth thinking about.