Originally Posted by el gringos
Good read as always and I like that you talk about percieved value and the difference from what the teams should do to will do- but your order seems very odd to me
What makes you such a fan of earl clark or hill? How can you justify flynn and lawson over holiday? Why is holiday not a top 10 prospect to you?
the last position okc will search for with this high pick is pg. I understand if they have to but I'm thinking they know they did the right thing with westbrook
Lakers win your draft w teague at the end of the 1st(not happening, as teague is also going to be a better pro than flynn and way better than lawson)
Thanks for actually reading it. This was a much bigger pain in the ass than I even anticipated, as it was difficult to keep track of both lines of thought. A player may be gone in one sequence but not the other, and it was hard to keep track of who where.
I'm not a big fan Jordan Hill, actually quite the opposite. But he seems to be so universally considered the third best prospect in this draft. I just couldn't bring myself to take him that high. I had him slipping to the Knicks at 8 in my version. And even then, am not thrilled with choice. But at some point, if a guy is generally considered a top five prospect, even if you don't like him, you're almost forced to take him just because he'll hold more value for you around the league than the guy you may prefer.
Clark I have to admit I'm fascinated by. I've said a few times on here that I think he will disappoint, because he's doesn't have a star mentality, and fans always want that out of a lottery pick, even though it's rarely the case. I've frequently compared him to Derrick McKey. What I like about him is that I think he's poised to be a better pro than a collegian because he's got the perfect mismatch game. He can shoot over SFs, and break down PFs. He's insanely long. I think he'll be a plus defender too. In the end, he has as much upside as almost anyone, you just wish he had the mentality to take over games, but what intrigues me is that I think he's almost bust proof, because of all the intangible things he brings to the table. That mentality means he can thrive without being the man, which is a tough transition for a lot of college stars. Plus he'll bring rebounding and defense. There's just a lot to like. If there were more star power in this draft, he'd be a guy who slipped.
I agree that OKC is not going to be searching for a PG with that first pick. But if Rubio were to fall that far, he's a guy who's value would be almost impossible to overlook. He's almost universally considered the number two prospect. One rule I had was that I wouldn't manufacture trades. And if he fell this far, I'd be shocked if the Thunder didn't trade the pick. In fact, Rubio fits so poorly with the Wizards, I wouldn't be shocked to see them move out if they actually land the second pick. But this is another case sort of like Hill, where he's almost too good a prospect not to take here in spite of needs.
The PG who falls furthest in my scenario is Jennings, who I think will go Fifth, but in my take would fall to 17th. And frankly, that was the toughest choice for me was Flynn or Jennings at ten. With Jennings gone, I have no problem taking Flynn, but any of another four PGs could go there. But Jennings really may be a matter of percieved value there. I just think Flynn changes ends and gets into the lane in a way that doesn't dominate the ball as much as what Jennings does, and he'd work so well with the Bucks who's center plays high, and who's PF and wings are really shooters. Jennings still strikes me as more iso and PnR oriented.
On Flynn, I'll be honest, that was the hardest spot for me. There are so many PGs who are so closely rated, that I feel like there's going to be a ton of possibilities. And they're going to be spread all over the place, because not every team has a need there. So two guys may be considered near equals, and one will go top ten and the other may just squeak into the first round. I actually really like Calathes too and he would fall well into the second round. I actually think Alex Ruoff could fit well in the right situation too. Both have size and solid jumpers, and if Teague didn't fall in my scenario, I would have reached probably for Calathes with the Lakers.
Holliday I just don't see as a true PG yet. Part of that comes from playing with Collison, which also affected my perception of Westbrook, but Westbrook measured out off the charts physically, and was in a relatively weak draft for his position. With so many other refined options, I think it will be easy for Holiday to slip, especially since he won't grade out physically the way Westbrook did. And his limited production leaves a lot guesswork to be done.