Originally Posted by Indian guy
As much as I'd love that, Bulls have the 8th best record in the league and with Keith-worst-starter-in-the-league-Bogans as their SG, they have no shot at getting a good enough record for Rose to be a serious MVP candidate this season. You have to play for a Top 5 team to have a shot, so as of right now it's between Dirk and LeBron.
Lebron's team is a grand total of 2 1/2 games ahead of Rose's and the Bulls are only 1 1/2 games behind 5th place Utah/LA--despite the Bulls arguably facing the toughest schedule in the league up to this point without his all-star 20/11 PF. You are right that generally speaking a player has to be on a top 5 team in the league to have a shot but you are assuming the Bulls have no shot at moving up the leader board. The Bulls will not catch Dallas, the Spurs, Boston and probably not the Heat but none of those teams have a player who blows Rose out the water as a MVP candidate. If Rose can lead the Bulls to 55+ wins he has a very good shot at being MVP.
Last year Durant finished 2nd in MVP voting on a 50 win #8 seed that placed in a four-way tied for the 9th best record in the league.
It won't just be about rankings but rather the gap between teams. If the Bulls place 7th in the league with 55 wins while third place has, say, 58 wins that difference is negligible and would have a minimal impact on MVP voting.
Right now Dirk's team is on pace for 67 wins, Lebron's 59, Rose's 54 and Amare and Howard's 49. If that kind of disparity holds over 82 games Rose is done but if Dallas comes down to Earth, the Bulls improve their winning percentage--as they should with Boozer back and having the tough part of their schedule out the way--Rose would have a shot in a scenario where Dallas wins 63 games, Miami 60, and the Bulls 57.
his team will be lucky to win 50 games and his stats aren't even that great. If Durant didn't win it last year, Rose sure as hell isn't winning it this year. He's not even better than Deron Williams who has better stats and a better team record.
the Bulls are on pace for 54 wins despite having arguably the toughest schedule in the league thus far without their all-star 20/11 PF for much of that time. The Bulls will easily reach 50 wins. The question for Rose's MVP chances are whether they can clear the 55 win mark. I think the Bulls will provided the team remains reasonably healthy.