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Old 02-16-2011, 10:34 PM   #8
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Join Date: Oct 2008
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Default Re: Keith Bogans has scored...

Originally Posted by SinJackal
"Rely on"? Is that some kind of left-handed insult? TS% and eFG% is more accurate than just looking at 3pt% and FG%.

Why? Because when most people look at just FG% and 3pt%, they don't look at the volume of threes they're taking, and the volume of shots they're missing. They just look at the %'s, and then incorrectly claim a player is worse than he really is (or in some cases better than he really is).

eFG% shows Bogans' ability to score points based on the amount of FGAs he takes. It's more accurate than just saying look his FG% is just 40% and his 3pt% is just 37%.

Since Bogans mostly just takes threes, he's actually scoring at a significantly higher rate than a guy who just takes mostly twos and shoots 40%.

Bogans's efg%: .533. Which means, if a player were to score the same amount of points as Bogans' at the same ratio of shots, but only took two pointers, they'd have to be a 53.3% FG% scorer.

The real question is, why wouldn't you use eFG%? Bogans is clearly not NEARLY the inefficienct scorer some of you guys are making him out to be. Bogans simply does not score large volumes of points. He's a role player.

Thanks for enlightening us about those stats you mentioned.
My problem with Bogans is that he is waaay OVER selective with his shots, passing up shots that would be considered makeable with a PURE/accurate shooter. My best guess is that Keith has been really worried that he'll miss a TON of shots forcing Thibs to yank him out sooner.
This forces Rose and Deng to shoot more than their usual number of shots. Rose's attempts per game is up by nearly 3 resulting to a decreased % from 48.9 to 44.5%. Deng's 3pt attempts has been up from 1.2 to 3.2 with a lower % from 38.6 to 33.9. I strongly believe if they didn't do this, they would be called for a 24 sec violation or even get a worst shot selection.
What is interesting is the fact that even if Bogans has been shooting well the past 2-3 weeks, his playing time has been almost IDENTICAL. It just seems to me that he is like a "token starter" a stop gap so Brewer or Korver would sneak in the game and inject life esp to their bench, hoping that the other coaches would not be prepared to deal with them.
The biggest question is if this current setup, Bogans starting and eventually just playing 18 mins/game would be sufficient against the top teams like Boston, Miami and Orlando when they REALLY play stingy defense in the playoffs.
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