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Old 02-17-2011, 12:17 AM   #9
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Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Illinois
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Default Re: Keith Bogans has scored...

Originally Posted by jasonresno
Doesn't relying on the ratio assume that he's makes/misses would remain consistent? Whose to say if Bogans was taking more shots he wouldn't be missing more?

But regardless: IF Bogans keeps playing like he has been these last few weeks... We don't need to make a move at all and I'd say we're twice as dangerous.

That's the thing, Bogans isn't a big volume scorer. I do think his efficiency would be down if he was taking a bunch more shots. Thing is, he doesn't. He knows he won't make them at a good rate. . .so instead he just takes the shots he can handle instead of forcing the issue (he's a role player with good self control. . .that's a good thing, not bad. ..)

Bogans is that rare type of guy who doesn't keep jacking up shots to "get his", he just takes shots that help the team, and doens't pass on the open shots where he gets a good look. That's pretty much all that's asked of Bogans, and while his FG% is low, his 3pt% is high, and since most of the shots he takes are threes, his actual overall scoring efficiency is pretty good. Though yes, he doesn't score in volume. We have other guys for that though. . .Rose, Boozer, and to a lesser extent, Deng and Noah.

Bogans is just a 17 minute per game defensive guy. How many points should he be scoring exactly?

Originally Posted by tamaraw08
Thanks for enlightening us about those stats you mentioned.
My problem with Bogans is that he is waaay OVER selective with his shots, passing up shots that would be considered makeable with a PURE/accurate shooter. My best guess is that Keith has been really worried that he'll miss a TON of shots forcing Thibs to yank him out sooner.
This forces Rose and Deng to shoot more than their usual number of shots. Rose's attempts per game is up by nearly 3 resulting to a decreased % from 48.9 to 44.5%. Deng's 3pt attempts has been up from 1.2 to 3.2 with a lower % from 38.6 to 33.9. I strongly believe if they didn't do this, they would be called for a 24 sec violation or even get a worst shot selection.
What is interesting is the fact that even if Bogans has been shooting well the past 2-3 weeks, his playing time has been almost IDENTICAL. It just seems to me that he is like a "token starter" a stop gap so Brewer or Korver would sneak in the game and inject life esp to their bench, hoping that the other coaches would not be prepared to deal with them.
The biggest question is if this current setup, Bogans starting and eventually just playing 18 mins/game would be sufficient against the top teams like Boston, Miami and Orlando when they REALLY play stingy defense in the playoffs.

I agree on the times Bogans passes up shots sometimes. When he's wide open for a three, sometimes he will bumble the ball after a pass and then dribble out and pass back to Rose instead of get a clean shot off.

Thing is though, we brought in Boozer to take a bunch of extra shots. Bogans was never meant to take many more shots than he is now. At most Bogans could be taking one more shot per game without probably just hurting the team in the long run.

At the same time though, I'm looking at the alternative. Guys like Parker who are "more aggressive". Despite his better 3pt%, his overall efficiency is worse.

So while he's definitely not contributing 8-10 PPG which would be cool, at least he isn't wasting possessions by taking bad shots. Remember . . .scoring is good, but bricking is equally negative as a score would've been positive. Not making a shot adds no positive, but not bricking one adds no negatives.

He doesn't add a big positive offensively, but he doesn't waste shots either. . .I'm sort of looking at it at the molecular level basically. I'm cool with Bogans' not scoring a lot since he at least isn't bricking a lot too. I would much rather Rose, Boozer, Noah, and Deng be sharing those spare 1-2 shots that Bogans isn't taking.

I'm with you though, if he somehow was better, and got open more I'd like that. I just hope you guys realize that Bogans isn't actually hurting the team by not getting more points since when he does take the shots since he's at least not bricking and turning the ball over a lot :P I'd be more annoyed though if he was playing 28-30 mins a game and only getting 4 points. 17 though. . .he's just a roleplayer guys :P and has been better lately.
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