Re: First-round upsets
I hope more and more people take Davidson over Maryland and Winthrop over Notre Dame because neither is going to happen. I don't really think 9 over 8 and 10 over 7 as upsets. The upsets I'm looking at now:
12 ODU over 5 Butler. Butler hasn't beaten a decent team since mid-December, but ODU doesn't have the guards to go against Graves and Green. ODU is coming in hot winning 12 of their last 13, but they did just get hammered by mediocre GMU. I'm leaning towards Butler, though.
12 Illinois over 5 VT. When VT is on then they're really on (beat ODU by 17, App. State by 32, UVA by 27, BC by 17, and swept UNC), but when they're off, then they're really off (lost to Western Michigan, GW, Marshall, NC State by 11 at home, by 25 on the road and by 8 at a neutral site, and BC by 21). It's hard to judge a team that beat UNC twice, but lost to NC State 3 times. I've watched them played a bunch of times, and there's no telling what you're going to get. Might as well flip a coin here.
12 Arkansas over 5 USC. USC is way over-seeded as a 5, but then again, Ark probably shouldn't have made it in. If Beverley and Weems are on, then USC will be in trouble. Something is telling me Ark, but I'll probably go with USC.
11 George Washington over 6 Vandy. Vandy is way over-seed as a 6. I think GW has the experienced guards and enough height to match up against Vandy's guards. I'm leaning towards GW.
11 Stanford over 6 Louisville. I just haven't been high on Louisville all season. Stanford has had some injury problems, but they're healthy now, plus they have twin 7-footers. It's practically a home game for Louisville, though. I'm leaning towards Louisville.
13 Holy Cross over 4 Southern Ill
11 VCU over Duke
14 Oral Roberts over 3 Washington State