Originally Posted by KG215
I've been noticing Florida State as a trendy Elite Eight or Final Four pick and I'm hesitant to buy into it. I think too much is being made of their ACC tournament wins over Duke and North Carolina.
1.) In two of their final three regular season games Florida State lost on the road to Miami by 16 despite Miami not having Reggie Johnson. They also lost at home to Duke by 8.
2.) Forget the Duke and North Carolina wins. Miami didn't have their leading scorer and maybe their best player in Durand Scott when Florida State beat them in the first round of the ACC tournament. Then they go on and beat Duke by three and Duke did not have Ryan Kelly. I don't know where Kelly falls in the pecking order for Duke, but there's been games I've watched this year where he's been their best or second best player. It just depends on if he's hitting the three ball or not. And of course they only beat UNC (who obviously didn't have John Henson) by three despite shooting nearly 60% from the field. It's no secret the kind of impact John Henson has on a game, especially on defense. He's the only player in the country on the same level as Anthony Davis in terms of how much he effects a game defensively.
Don't get me wrong, Florida State is talented. And not only are they talented but their rotation is mostly upperclassmen with postseason experience. They already defend well enough to be a Final Four team. I just don't know if they can consistently score the ball well enough to make an Elite Eight or Final Four run.
FSU lacks the component that teams, almost without fail, need to go deep in the tournament: a go-to guy on offense. Balance is a wonderful thing. But to win this thing you better know exactly where you're going to get quality shots in those stretches where you're going to need them.
Don't forget the omnipresent Leonard Hamilton factor. The ACC Coach of the Year is one of the worst in-game coaches in college basketball. I can only assume he won the award because they don't want to give it to Roy or K every year, the rest of the ACC sucked, and FSU finished higher than anticipated.
I've watched the guy closely since his days at OK St. A really bad clock manager. Never has a consistent offensive attack, reliant instead on the athletes that he does successfully recruit. A guy who will steal defeat from the jaws of victory in a big spot.