That is the only factor.
BC has said since the end of the season that if MJ is reasonable in his financial demands, then the Raps are interested. If not, there's always a sign-and-trade option. If that fails and they lose MJ for nothing, an extra 3 or so mil of cap space is now available. It's a win-win situation as far as BC is concerned.
IMO, If BC gets a semi-sweet deal on MJ via a sign-and-trade, he's a goner. Remember, this is the GM that didn't hesitate trading Starbury in Phoenix. And his track record shows he sees the incredible importance of a pass first PG.
I would quantify the chances of MJ being back at this point at 33%.