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Old 05-21-2012, 03:59 PM   #39
StateProperty's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: BMore, MD
Posts: 4,742
Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

You can see here how stats like these are so circumstantial. These charts make Asante look like he had arguably his best year yet (and maybe still did?). You can't go strictly by stats though with football.

Samuel's success rate - defined as the percentage of passes that don't manage to get at least 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent of needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of needed yards on third down - was 67 percent, which also ranked third.

And Samuel allowed 2.0 YAC on average, second-best. By all statistical accounts, he had a great year.

Most of you know I really appreciate the work Football Outsiders does, and I find a lot of value in the charting numbers. But in Samuel's case, I don't think the stats tell the whole story.

I went back and looked at my Man Up write-ups from last year. For the most part, Samuel did a decent job in coverage. But he also got lucky quite a bit.

In the first matchup against the Giants, Samuel got beat badly by Victor Cruz on a double move, but Eli Manning overthrew his receiver on what easily could have been a 50-yard completion.

Against the Bears, Samuel was beat by Roy Williams on what would have been a 20-yard gain, but Jay Cutler threw behind his receiver. Later, Devin Hester beat Samuel for what could have been a 45-yard gain, but Cutler underthrew him (to Samuel's credit, he recovered nicely).

Larry Fitzgerald beat Samuel with a double move, but John Skelton was off-target with his throw. And Samuel also likely had a hand in Fitzgerald's 37-yard catch late in that game, although he wasn't targeted specifically.

I have no way to prove that Samuel was luckier than other cornerbacks. And the point here is not to pick on him or poke holes in his game. For the most part, when quarterbacks threw Samuel's way last year, they didn't have a lot of success. And in 2010, the charting numbers on him were even more impressive (3.2 yards per pass, 78 percent sucess rate). But it's important to note that a couple plays going differently could have significantly changed those overall numbers.
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