Originally Posted by steve
The big problem with comparing Griffin to Robinson, is comparing Blake Griffin the NBA player with Thomas Robinson the NCAA player. If, for whatever reason, you find Griffin lacking in the comparison, something massive is missing. Griffin in the final year of college ball pretty much laps Robinson in production and efficiency (not to mention that Oklahoma team was a good bit worse than this Kansas team). Robinson has a ways to go to reach Griffin's level.
Anywho, Robinson should probably function as a solid starter in the NBA (which is sort of the M.O. of most of this draft). He's an excellent rebounder, he has what looks like a solid jump shot, and he has a pretty high motor, which will keep in the league as a productive player for a long time. But he does struggle against NBA sized bigs (as evidence by his really poor scoring numbers in the NCAA tournament) and he's fairly unrefined when it comes to scoring, even in terms of his instincts.
Oh I totally agree with the fact that a direct comparison of Griffin in the NBA and Robinson in the NCAA has notable faults to it. Thanks for bringing it up.
However, when I look at the two in generalized skillsets, both within the NCAA and NBA, the model provided for Robinson suggests to me that Robinson will do well because a lot of his style is reflected in my eyes in an earlier Griffin.
I don't think Robinson will ever put up the numbers Griffin does, but his similarity in huge motor with (in my eyes) a slightly better skill foundation (esp when compared to NCAA years of themselves) will help Robinson to do quite well at the next level. It is this slightly greater skillset that I believe makes up for slightly less production and domination that Griffin demonstrated at the collegiate level as a prospect for the NBA. You do also bring up good points on comparing them as NCAA prospects, though I personally think using "laps" is an exaggeration when comparing their efficiency and production.
From what I've seen, there is a split between whether or not Robinson has moves outside of power moves and being aggressive, (I believe this is your opinon as well). I genuinely do think Robinson has a respectable set of skill moves and a jump shot that is at this point better than what Griffin displayed, though it's still nothing to praise.
Essentially, my sentiments about Robinson comes down to this - a lot of people think Robinson can't succeed because he is a pretty athleticism-based, raw player that has his limitations (like, as you noted, has trouble against long guys). However, guys like Griffin, Jefferson, etc. who have similar limitations (albeit Big Al has some sick moves and Griffin is an elite athlete paralleled only by guys like LeBron) have had major success and puts up stats and I don't see why a guy who is very similar to (I know I keep using his name, but I feel like as prospects the general perspective of them was similar) and even better in some regards AS A PROSPECT can't have success nearly as good despite the negative parts of his portfolio.