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Old 10-07-2012, 02:03 PM   #8
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Default Re: Romney Surges Ahead in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia

Originally Posted by bootsy
This. is what people don't realize when they are relying on these polls. The only thing that matters in the EC and winning as many as the big, important states as possible. Romney as you said still has a lot of work to do and to me it's too late. One debate is not going to make up for months of campaigning where he failed to make an impression on voters. These Romney voters couldn't wait to go to these bogus polls and puff their chest out. It's too late.

538 confirms Mitt's momentum, but also says he is still in a big hole.

Mitt Romney continues to show improved numbers in polls published since the presidential debate in Denver on Wednesday and has now made clear gains in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. The forecast gives him roughly a 20 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from about 15 percent before the debate. Mr. Romney’s gains in the polls have been sharp enough that he should continue to advance in the FiveThirtyEight forecast if he can maintain his numbers over the next couple of days.

The other thing about 538's model is, based on how past elections worked out, they have expected the race to tighten as it gets closer to election day.

Last edited by KevinNYC : 10-07-2012 at 08:55 PM.
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