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Old 02-05-2013, 09:30 PM   #22
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Default Re: North Korea posts a video of there missle destroying NYC

Originally Posted by -p.tiddy-
what was formerly known as the "Star Wars Program"

I really don't know much about it, but from what I was told if someone shoots 20 nukes at us, only 1 will actually hit

Even under test situations we haven't achieved a 95% success rate. The giant issue has always been decoys which I don't think has been tested. To fire 20 nukes you might launch 60 missiles. These decoy missiles might also release debris, this has been talked about for 20 years or more. If you think of the nuke as a bullet, think of the decoys as shot gun shells. They could release a whole bunch of debris. Now there is hundreds, perhaps thousdands of objects moving very quickly through space and our systems would not only have to figure out which is the real target, but now we have to hit the target and not any of the decoys and we only have a couple of minutes to figure all this out.

Debris and Decoys

With respect to the need to deal with decoys and countermeasures, the NAS committee wrote that “[t]here is no effective ballistic missile area defense that does not require dealing with midcourse discrimination (or shooting at all potential threat objects!).”[20] “Moreover,” the panel wrote in its April 30 letter to Congress, “early intercept, even if achievable from a forward-based interceptor system, cannot obviate the need for midcourse discrimination, because countermeasures and payload deployment can be achieved very rapidly (as historical experience shows) after threat booster burnout.”[21]

The DSB task force made a similar point about the need to discriminate real targets from debris and decoys: “If the defense should find itself in a situation where it is shooting at missile junk or decoys, the impact on the regional interceptor inventory would be dramatic and devastating.”[22]

Because of the inability to discriminate real targets from debris, decoys, or both and because of the poor record of successful intercepts in tests, especially by the GMD system, the reports from the NAS committee and the DSB task force recommend a “shoot-look-shoot” strategy. This means shooting several times at the same object and looking at it between shots to see if it has been destroyed.

Congressional testimony on this matter by Defense Department officials has been reluctant but clear: the system might have to shoot at each object four or five times to have a reasonable chance of killing that object.[23] If the enemy launches 20, 30, or 50 missiles in a salvo, that could consume hundreds of interceptors.

In battle, those repeated tries would take time.
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