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Old 05-08-2013, 06:27 PM   #173
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Default Re: The BigAss 2nd term thread

Originally Posted by longhornfan1234
Great input.
You asked a question. I answered.

It's not a one time deal, economists are predicting a smaller deficit next year and the year after that. Goldman Sachs is more bullish than the CBO on this, they see it down to $500 billion by 2015.
After beginning the year expecting a $900 billion deficit for 2013, Goldman's economic team, lead by Jan Hatzius, has now cut the figure twice, this time to $775 billion. By the close of 2014, the economists said, the deficit will decline to $600 billion, and clock in at $475 billion at the end of 2015. Goldman had previously expected a $650 billion deficit at the end of 2014 and $500 billion at the end of 2015
If the question you wanted to ask is why is this occurring, then that requires a different answer. The short answer is the unemployment situation is better.

Your scenario seemed to imply it was all about the capital gains tax going up. However, that only applies to folks earning more than $400,000. How many of them are there? Since this expected to a longer term trend, then that implies this is broad-based. So what happened in 2012? The employment situation got better.
The last month of 2011, the unemployment rate was 8.5%. The last month of 2012, it was 7.8%. Housing prices and the stock market rose too, which should mean more tax revenue.

There's a spending component to this as well as spending as gone down, however, it's mostly due to more revenue.
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