NBA lottery pick
Join Date: Jun 2006
Re: My Crazy Mock
13) Dallas Mavericks:
What I think will happen: Plumlee - There are a lot of players who can help the Mavs here actually. They could go big with any of the guys available. Or they could chase a PG. I think they’ll go big to form a rotation with Dirk and Brand. As it’s played out, I think they’d be choosing between Plumlee and Olynek. And I think the notion of putting Plumlee’s athleticism next to Dirk would win out.
What I would do: Michael Carter-Williams - This is another spot where I think I’d take a bigger risk. You’re going to war up front next year with Dirk, Brand, and Marion anyway. Hopefully Mayo comes back to play SG. Right now you’re starting Darren Collison, who’s really a waterbug, change of pace type PG. I’d take MCW here. You can do a number of things with him. With Dirk being a threat outside, you can post him. You can use his size defensively to let him play some off the ball next to Collison. Frankly, I’m not sure he’s a PG in the truest sense of the word (again, I’m an Orange fan who’s seen tons of this guy, several times in person). He’s not terribly comfortable bringing the ball up against pressure. But he’s great in the middle of the break. And he’s a great playmaker off the bounce, with or without a screen, so running PnPop with Dirk could be an asset next year. Even Mayo’s multiple skills could play well with him because he wouldn’t always have the pressure of bringing up the ball with Mayo out there with him, and he could play off the ball some too. Coming off a screen, catching without having given up his bounce, and getting a screener coming at him to play a two man game, using his height to spot shooters across the court … that’s where he’s best, which isn’t necessarily Point Guarding, but in a PnR league, this guy should be an asset. And if Dirk teaches him how to shoot, you might have the best player in this draft.
14) Utah Jazz:
What I think will happen: MCW - This team now belongs to the frontline of Kanter and Favors, along with Gordon Haywood on the wing. I actually expect them to bring back one of their two FA bigs, probably Millsap because he’s got a little more versatility. They could use another wing, but they’d be better served by a PG at this point. I don’t see a team this young going into the season starting Mo Williams at the point as being a good idea. In this iteration, all of MCW, Dennis Schroeder, and Shane Larkin are available. With all three on the board, Larkin is probably too much of a reach, although he may be the best fit for them, because he’s the most reliable with the ball and the best shooter of the three. This team has a decent history with foreign born players. The drafted Kirelenko once upon a time, and had success with a few other guys. They also have a history of valueing jumpshooting, to the point where MCW may seem like not their type of player. But I’d expect them to follow the value of the board at this point and go with MCW.
What I would do: Sergei Karasev – Along with Schroeder, this is the other international player that I’ve fallen hard for. Starting with the Hoops Summit game, then doing as much research as possible on him. The guy is a coaches sun. And by all accounts, he’s a premium shooter. What strikes me are two things. At 19, he’s already a physically impressive SF, particularly for an international player. He’s not a plus athlete, but he’s strong and well put together, and isn’t gonna be pushed around. Secondly, he seems to have incredible instincts. A great passer who can use his shooting to get defenders close enough to create passing angles and lanes. He and Heywood would be a nice oversized wing duo who can shoot, which is a nice foundation in front of their big rotation. You may want one of them to be a better defender, but neither is gonna be bad. If Schroeder were still here, I’d take him, and I genuinely considered Larkin, who’s shooting I feel would make him a good fit on this team, with his size being mitigated some by the extra size all over the rest of the court.
15) Milwaukee Bucks:
What I think will happen: Pope - I’ve gotta imagine both Ellis and Jennings are back next year. Jennings’ qualifier is too good a deal for the team. Ellis’ player option is too good a deal for him. Although being an expirer, he could make for trade bait as the season goes on. I’d think a better team will step up and steal Reddick away though. So help on the perimeter makes sense. They’ve got a type going with the long defensive minded bigs like Larry Sanders, Jon Hensen, Epke Udoh, and even Ilyesova, who’s gonna have to play more SF next year. I see them choosing between an offensive big, or a wing like Pope who could free them up to move Ellis. I think they’ll go Pope and try to move Ellis as an expirer who can help a fringe contentder next year. There are people who’d call him a steal at this point.
What I would do: Alex Len - Personally I’d go big here. LARRY SANDERS!!! is a defensive specialist. I saw enough of Henson at UNC to not be thrilled with his offensive future, and Udoh falls somewhere in between at best. There are good deals on decent shooting decent defending wing players all the time in this league, which is what I see as Pope’s ceiling. The bigs left on this end at this point are pretty much everyone less Zeller and Plumlee. I’d lean toward Len. He’s still the best genuine post presence. Gobert could be interesting, but he does a lot of the same things they already do.
16) Boston Celtics:
What I think will happen: Schroeder - For a 7th place finisher, there’s not a lot this team can do at 16 to really change their fortunes (I’m a Celtic fan for disclosure). Unless there’s some trades or retirements, it will be Rondo, Bradley, Pierce, Green, Garnett next year, with Bass, Courtney Lee, the corpse of Jet Terry, and Jared Sullinger getting some run off the bench. One of the bigs would be intrigueing, but they just whiffed on Fab Melo last year, and may still not see any of these guys as a step above him at this point (although I’d disagree). All the wings of consequence, meaning able to crack that deep rotation, are gone. So I’m gambling on a few things I’ve read saying that Schroeder could wind up here. It’s about where his general value is. And seeing as Danny Ainge has had a hard on for Rondo for years, it makes some sense. You can stash him for a year while Rondo comes back and reestablishes his value, then move Rondo while he’s still got a year on a friendly contract number and bring Schroeder over. Personally I’d love this pick, which means they’ll probably take Jeff Withey.
What I would do: Rudy Gobert - Well, unfortunately I’m too smart to have had Schroeder fall to here for me. Pope is still haning around, along with the usual collection of bigs. Pope wouldn’t be bad value, but really for Boston, he shouldn’t play over Bradley or Lee, and won’t over Jet. Hell, I’d be willing to keep trying to rescue Terrence Williams. As much as I hate to crap on the Fab Melo project so soon, Gobert is just too good a physical specimen to pass up at this point. At least he’s as good a project as Melo, and you could theoretically get someone else to train him before starting his contract clock. Very exciting stuff.
17) Atlanta Hawks:
What I think will happen: Kelly Olynek - Back to Back picks are always interesting, because it seems like you can really take a gamble on one. Like the Celtics last year when they bought that Fab Melo scratch off ticket. But the way this draft has fallen has not been good for Atlanta here, because all the quality players left are bigs, which means your back to back picks are either going to include duplication, or a reach. The good news is that this team has been gutted. So it can afford to reach, because it’s gonna find a player it can use at pretty much any position. The only players of consequence they really have under contract for next season are the excellent Al Horford, the still developing Jeff Teague, for one more year, a 6th man style streak scorer undersized SG in Louis Williams coming off knee surgery, and a usable rotation quality shooting SG in John Jenkins. With Pachulia coming off and perhaps Josh Smith, I see them going big and moving Horford to PF full time. There’s just too much value at that position here. Olynek is just too much a step ahead of Withey or Adams at this point for me to think they’d go another way. He’s got some legit offensive game, and moves well defensively. I really think he’s a teir tipper for bigs. He’s the last one left among this group. He may be better than Deng, or maybe not, but after him the rest won’t.
What I would do: Deng - Because I was more inclined to gamble it seems on the couple of foreigners earlier, I have an extra choice among the bigs now. I prefer Deng’s defensive presence to Olynek. And I feel good about what Deng does offensively.