Re: Alex Len out for 4-6 months
It's a very unpredictable injury is all. As has been pointed out. Some feel it has something to do with mileage, while others feel it has to do with the body's structural design. Yao for example was a little older when he got his, but it was also after his first few years of running through an NBA schedule which is far far more rigorous than basketball really anywhere else (that fact often feels overlooked in the league, the jump in games played is crazy).
So I fear that a guy who's putting so much strain on his feet over a 30 game college schedule, is worth worrying how that stress, which is really what it is, will affect him over nearly 100 games hopefully.
This is the same injury that destroyed Bill Walton, and oddly this injury really hasn't evolved in treatment the way others have. And ACL for example is on the verge of becoming a known quantity. It gets torn, this is the procedure, and this is how long to recover, give or take, and you can expect a return to form from between 80-100%. There's just a lot more maybe's and what if's surrounding stress fractures.
The issue I have with my knees, degenerative cartillage, is also something like that. The fixes and results fluctuate wildly. It ruined Chris Webber, even moreso Brandon Roy, and seems to have wrecked Amare Stoudamire, while Jason Kidd continued relatively cleanly afterward.
I still like Len as a prospect, enough over most of the other bigs to still take him. But if you were only marginally favoring him over Zeller or Gobert or someone else, this to me would be enough to go with someone else. Particularly Zeller who may not have near the ceiling, but at this point has a hugely higher floor.