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Old 09-30-2013, 01:52 AM   #415
Xiao Yao You
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Default Re: The sure to be epic 2013 Jazz off-season!

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Peter: I think we both agree that at this point in time it is difficult to see a scenario where the Jazz offer a full 4 year, $62.3mm maximum extension to either player. When I consider how much either player is worth, I look for recent comparable players/contracts. In Favorsí case I think the Serge Ibaka extension (4 years, $49.3mm) signed last year is rather indicative of what Favors is worth. Both Favors and Ibaka are raw, defensive-focused PFs with room to grow on offense.


Ibaka has proven a lot more. No way should he get that much especially with salaries going down under the new CBA.

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For Hayward, I look at DeMar DeRozanís extension (4 years, $38mm). While Hayward is a better shooter and more efficient overall, DeRozan has a superior athletic profile which balances out their future NBA prospects. Will either player agree to those type of numbers?

He's a lot better than DeRozan. They'd both be smart to take those deals I'd think. Hayward I see taking the money more than Favors though I could see him holding out for more.

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Considering how conservative the Jazz franchise is historically, I tend to think the Jazz wonít offer that type of money now. Further, I think both players are looking at their anticipated roles this year and could anticipate a work load that will allow them to put up better production than their Ibaka and DeRozan comparisons did. For this reason the players may similarly be hesitant to sign a deal in that range.

It's Lindsey now so we'll see. It's not necessarily conservative. You don't give it to them now you could lose them next year or pay a lot more.

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Dan: The extension prices you quoted probably arenít way off, although thatís not where the Jazz will start the conversations. The playersí agents might, but I donít think the Ibaka-Favors comparison will get Favorsí negotiating team very far. Serge was coming off all-defensive first team and a trip to the NBA Finals, the culmination of a run in which he netted an 18.9 Playoff PER. Even still, he got an extension that averaged a little more than 12M/yr with an extra couple million in incentives. I just donít think Favors is in Ibakaís league yet, in overall terms, to say nothing of a much different economic market than when Ibaka extended.

Hayward-Derozan, on the other hand, might be in the ballpark. A 4/38M deal is honestly a better deal on the Jazz end than I thought, so if thatís on the table, they might have to take it. But in either case, I think it points back to the salient question about the risk calculation on the part of the players. On one hand, you could take the money now, knowing it might be lower than you could get after a year of number-padding. On the other, you could wait for the chance of a slightly more lucrative payday but risk getting screwed by: the structure of restricted free agency, a market with loads of marquee guys, injury, or just the fact that any shortcomings are going to be magnified when youíre the #1 or #2 option.

Or injury. Who knows if their bodies can hold up to their bigger roles. Favors has some issues already last year.
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