Tim duncan is someone that will retire in the next 3 -4 years Oden is someone who will retire in 10 - 15 years
3 - 4 < 10 - 15 its about how long you want spurs to be a competitor in the NBA with a dominant big man.
Magic's 3-4 years with Shaq >>> The 10 years since.
Miami's 3-4 years with Shaq>>> The rest of their history.
It would be a tough trade to make but Duncan is the one guy in the NBA that gives you a legit shot at a title. I think that makes you do the deal. You never know what will happen in the future so take the now while you can.
I mean there have been much better prospects than Oden that have failed miserably or not won their team a title. Guys like Ewing, Bias and Coleman all come to mind. Hell Mutombo never won his team a title and if Oden is that good in 4 years time then Portland should be very happy.
Oden is an excellent prospect. Duncan is a great player.