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  1. #61
    College superstar joe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Quote Originally Posted by KevinNYC
    That's the problem when you have to accept a premise for an investment to make sense. There's a difference between "Trust me, this a good investment because of these reasons" and "Trust me, this is a good investment, because I'm secretly the exiled Crown Prince of Malta." Gold prices are not necessarily based on supply and demand like any other commodity.

    You also have to understand in the past few years you had lots of people running to buy gold because the US dollar was going to collapse AND you have lots and lots of people running to buy Treasury because US debt was the safest investment in the world.

    However, I'm not sure what you mean by "inflation hose" though, because it kind looks like a inflation grade-school water fountain to me.

    Year 2012
    Jan 2.93%
    Feb 2.87%
    Mar 2.65%
    Apr 2.30%
    QE, operation twist, stimulus

    You are trusting the governments statistics on the goverments (or the Feds) inflation. You might as well be asking the guy with blood on his hands if he's responsible for the dead body in his livingroom. The inflation statistics are purposely designed to lowball the real inflation.
    Last edited by joe; 06-08-2012 at 10:37 PM.

  2. #62
    College superstar joe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Quote Originally Posted by -p.tiddy-
    no it's not...that is a REALLY REALLY horrible comparison



    yes there are many cases...how about the US Dollar
    The US dollar has only been off of gold for 40 years, give it some time. In that span its value has shrunk, and our debt has skyrocketed. Not a good track record.

    Analogies aren't my strong suit My point is that, the fundamental reasons that gold has always been used as currency have not changed.

  3. #63
    Perfectly Calm, Dude KevinNYC's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Quote Originally Posted by joe
    QE, operation twist, stimulus

    You are trusting the governments statistics on the goverments (or the Feds) inflation. You might as well be asking the guy with blood on his hands if he's responsible for the dead body in his livingroom. The inflation statistics are purposely designed to lowball the real inflation.
    Joe, at some point your going to have to see if your ideology holds up in light of the facts. You can't simply just keep complaining about the facts because they don't match your ideology. You should try this as an intellectual exercise.

    If you don't like the cpi index of inflation (apparently because they're the equivalent of murderers in your opinion), you can check the Billion Price Project at MIT. Of course, you'll get about the same result because both are derived from real world prices.

    Something that cost a dollar in mid 2008 went down to 96 cents by Jan 2009 and now is a little over $1.05. about 4 years later.

    Also, I know you don't like looking at the facts, but if you did ask the guy with the blood on his hands he'll tell you he was trying to stop the flow of blood from the wound and save his friends life, but he failed. If you bothered to ask, he'll point to the bullet hole that was fired through the window.

  4. #64
    College superstar joe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Quote Originally Posted by KevinNYC
    Joe, at some point your going to have to see if your ideology holds up in light of the facts. You can't simply just keep complaining about the facts because they don't match your ideology. You should try this as an intellectual exercise.

    If you don't like the cpi index of inflation (apparently because they're the equivalent of murderers in your opinion), you can check the Billion Price Project at MIT. Of course, you'll get about the same result because both are derived from real world prices.

    Something that cost a dollar in mid 2008 went down to 96 cents by Jan 2009 and now is a little over $1.05. about 4 years later.

    Also, I know you don't like looking at the facts, but if you did ask the guy with the blood on his hands he'll tell you he was trying to stop the flow of blood from the wound and save his friends life, but he failed. If you bothered to ask, he'll point to the bullet hole that was fired through the window.
    If you measure inflation the way they used to, it's higher than when Nixon instituted price controls. That's a fact! How do you feel about that?



    If you measure unemployment the way they used to, it's above 16%. Another fact.



    Inflation can be whatever you want it to be. Find the group or website that you agree with, copy and paste their charts, and inflation is low or high or medium, or whatever you wanted.

    Let's just keep things simple.


  5. #65
    Perfectly Calm, Dude KevinNYC's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    You've educated me Joe, I had no idea such a thing as shadowstats.com existed.

  6. #66
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    The currency of the nation does not need to be backed by anything.

    What matters is, WHO CREATES IT AND CONTROLS THE QUANTITY!!!!!!

    So who should that be???

    A. A state authorized monopoly of unelected bankers, charging interest, working for private shareholders, while using fractional reserve lending for profit, through the Federal Reserve System? What we have now.

    B. Unregulated global banks under the gold standard, charging interest, controlled by private hands for private gains, in a total anarcho capitalistic free market?

    Or...

    C. WE THE PEOPLE!!! Debt free in the public interest, through democratically elected representatives, whose policies can be debated in an open forum and publicly held accountable?


    A nation who must borrow from private banking institutions at interest, or be binded by backing their currency in gold, can never ever be truly sovereign. Those who believe that the goverment can not be trusted to handle the responsibility of creating and regulating it's own currency, also must not believe in the concept of self governance, and therefore is an anarchist. Which is okay, just admit it.

    Watch and learn the deal from a real AMERICAN LIBERTARIAN, not the Austrian, goldbug, anarcho, science fiction crap.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4VaSh8MMo34
    Last edited by Norcaliblunt; 06-09-2012 at 06:45 AM.

  7. #67
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Quote Originally Posted by joe
    Gold has traditionally been currency for a very good reason. It wasn't by accident, or because people were dumb in the past and now we're geniuses who can print money. It's because the natural course of the market inevitably favors gold or precious metal as money. There's nothing scary about it. Gold money is honest, efficient, trustworthy money. There's nothing about a gold standard that inherently crashes the economy. That's all BS made up by the federal reserve and government propagandists, to justify robbing us blind with their printing press.

    Fact is, the world WILL return to a precious metal standard, like it or not. Paper money will always go back to its real value, which is NOTHING. Zero! Nadda! There is no documented case in world history of a paper currency not eventually becoming WORTHLESS. The only reason gold standards end is because governments make it illegal, or remove all the actual gold from the money and horde it for themselves. That's it.

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=4VaSh8MMo34

  8. #68
    코비=GOAT
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Not sure if Joe understands that a return to the gold standard will instantly collapse the economy into massive irrecoverable debt. There is a reason that the US is devaluing the dollar. Capitalism in the US, in its efficiency, has created more than people can consume and people are simply not confident. In world trade, the US devalues the dollar to shift the burden of overproduction overseas. This was Bernanke's gambit. Devalue the dollar, increase demands for US exports, boost GDP. The problem was China and the world went into a state of "flight-to-quality" and boosted demand for the dollar and kept the cost of US exports high.
    Currency devaluation would have been an obvious solution for Greece, but they lack a central bank and their currency is issued by the European Central Bank.
    Last edited by shlver; 06-09-2012 at 12:33 PM.

  9. #69
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Quote Originally Posted by Norcaliblunt
    The currency of the nation does not need to be backed by anything.

    What matters is, WHO CREATES IT AND CONTROLS THE QUANTITY!!!!!!

    So who should that be???

    A. A state authorized monopoly of unelected bankers, charging interest, working for private shareholders, while using fractional reserve lending for profit, through the Federal Reserve System? What we have now.

    B. Unregulated global banks under the gold standard, charging interest, controlled by private hands for private gains, in a total anarcho capitalistic free market?

    Or...

    C. WE THE PEOPLE!!! Debt free in the public interest, through democratically elected representatives, whose policies can be debated in an open forum and publicly held accountable?


    A nation who must borrow from private banking institutions at interest, or be binded by backing their currency in gold, can never ever be truly sovereign. Those who believe that the goverment can not be trusted to handle the responsibility of creating and regulating it's own currency, also must not believe in the concept of self governance, and therefore is an anarchist. Which is okay, just admit it.

    Watch and learn the deal from a real AMERICAN LIBERTARIAN, not the Austrian, goldbug, anarcho, science fiction crap.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4VaSh8MMo34

    i agree with this

  10. #70
    Shazam! raiderfan19's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    The people who say gold cant go down are the same idiots who said that real estate couldnt go down because of its intrinsic value. Gold is following the exact same bubble that real estate went through a few years ago and in another couple of years it will also crash. It wont be as bad because its not bought on credit the way real estate is, but it will still go down.

  11. #71
    In Morey We Trust! brantonli's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Quote Originally Posted by joe
    Saying "gold is a relic of the past" is ignorant. That's like saying "gravity is a relic of the past." Gold has traditionally been currency for a very good reason. It wasn't by accident, or because people were dumb in the past and now we're geniuses who can print money. It's because the natural course of the market inevitably favors gold or precious metal as money. There's nothing scary about it. Gold money is honest, efficient, trustworthy money. There's nothing about a gold standard that inherently crashes the economy. That's all BS made up by the federal reserve and government propagandists, to justify robbing us blind with their printing press.

    Fact is, the world WILL return to a precious metal standard, like it or not. Paper money will always go back to its real value, which is NOTHING. Zero! Nadda! There is no documented case in world history of a paper currency not eventually becoming WORTHLESS. The only reason gold standards end is because governments make it illegal, or remove all the actual gold from the money and horde it for themselves. That's it.
    Well...

    http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/ic...ichengreen.pdf

    [QUOTE]there now exists agreement among most economists
    that the gold standard was a key element

  12. #72
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Quote Originally Posted by joe
    If you measure inflation the way they used to, it's higher than when Nixon instituted price controls. That's a fact! How do you feel about that?



    If you measure unemployment the way they used to, it's above 16%. Another fact.



    Inflation can be whatever you want it to be. Find the group or website that you agree with, copy and paste their charts, and inflation is low or high or medium, or whatever you wanted.

    Let's just keep things simple.

    very interesting material. do you have information about shadowstats' methodology? I'm interested in knowing whether they collect the data or compute it via some unpublished numbers or do a correction of sorts

    the appearance of the inflation curves looked so similar that it seems they just added 2% to the official number

    but the unemployment curve actualy looks like it has data points so I'm wondering how that's computed
    Last edited by heyhey; 06-10-2012 at 02:15 AM.

  13. #73
    College superstar joe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Quote Originally Posted by heyhey
    very interesting material. do you have information about shadowstats' methodology? I'm interested in knowing whether they collect the data or compute it via some unpublished numbers or do a correction of sorts

    the appearance of the inflation curves looked so similar that it seems they just added 2% to the official number

    but the unemployment curve actualy looks like it has data points so I'm wondering how that's computed
    Ummm I forget where I got the unemployment graph. Google "the old way of measuring unemployment" or something like. Or, "the real unemployment rate" would be even better. I won't vouch for the sources I put up there specifically, but I've seen similar numbers from a few different places. The gov. doesn't deny that the unemployment and cpi statistics have been changed to show lower numbers. They just say the new numbers are more accurate or useful, where I think they changed them to mask the effects of their policies.

    I just hope people see my main point, which is that statistics are pretty useless in the grand scheme. Everyone has statistics that back up their argument. Numbers don't lie, but humans do. And humans are what creates the formulas, and gives significance to the results.

  14. #74
    College superstar joe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Quote Originally Posted by brantonli
    Well...

    http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/ic...ichengreen.pdf



    By Eichengreen and Temin, two extremely well respected academics.

    The whole effing Great Depression was caused by the Fed operating under the Gold Standard (and had to raise interest rates to prevent gold outflows, which ****ed up the rest of the economy). FYI, Spain didn't go on the gold standard in the interwar period and didn't suffer nearly as much of a crisis as the other countries did.
    The Austrian school has a totally different take on the Great Depression, if you care to hear it. They argue that it was a classic example of the Austrian business cycle, with the Fed creating too much credit in the 20's, leading to an artificial boom, followed by the bust in 29/30. Then, instead of allowing the free market to fix the problem, the government consistently intervened, causing a depression. The depression didn't end until 1946, when government finally cut spending (as Keynesians of the time were predicting the austerity would devastate the economy). 1946 was one of our best economic years in history.

    I do tend to agree with that explanation, but I won't say it's cut and dry.

    I don't know much about Spain's history, so I can't comment. But correlation does not equal causation. Maybe Spain avoided economic problems for another reason?

    After all, we have had economic problems recently, and we don't have a gold standard. So shouldn't I be able to say that if we had one, things would be fine?

    I think a lot of bad history has plagued the perception of gold. Mainly the idea that we had many bank panics/recessions before the Fed came along. People should be reading alternative versions of history on that, because there's great arguments against those interpretations of history. Some even gaining acceptance in the mainstream.

  15. #75
    Perfectly Calm, Dude KevinNYC's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gold is the best investment

    Quote Originally Posted by KevinNYC
    You've educated me Joe, I had no idea such a thing as shadowstats.com existed.
    For those of you who have followed the conversation Joe and I have been having on economics on ISH, might have guessed that I meant that sentence ironically. It's not a statement of approval. I had a very simliar feeling the first time I saw Rebbecca Black's video for "Friday."

    I also kept my reply to Joe to one sentence, because I knew it wouldn't matter what I said, he would still believe in shadowstats because it helps support his world view. I did do some Googling to see what mainstream economists think of shadowstats and it makes for some interesting readng, but I'm not able to evaluate the debate. Unless anyone on ISH is an expert in statistics and understands how economists use "hedonic regression" and "Laspeyres indexes" they are simply not qualified to differentiate between the model that shadowstats.com uses and the method that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses either.

    But even given that, there are a few guides as to the reliability of shadowstats.com.

    One is pointed out by heyhey in this thread. Why does the graph published by shadowstats exactly match the shape of the CPI-U index? I mean take a look at this chart that shows how the Billion Price Project at MIT matches up to the CPI



    As you can see both graphs show roughly the same trend, but they are not the exact same shape. (and they shouldn't be the same shape because MIT does not measure the exact same goods and services that the Bureau of Labor Statistics does.

    Another clue about shadowstats is when you go to their page, you see the Title is
    John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics

    So is this a one man shop? Dunno, but if you look up the company that publishes shadowstats is American Business Analytics & Research LLC. They don't have a website of their own and if you look them up on coporatewiki, no officers are listed for the company.

    So I doubt SGS is actually going out and collecting any information. Their method does seem to be take the BLS number and add 2 or 3% to it. (I think it's actually 2.7%)

    If you want some background, here's what econobrowser says about them

    Shadowstats debunked

    I've yet to find someone who has been able to reproduce the claims made by Shadow Government Statistics about the extent to which government agencies are grossly misreporting the U.S. inflation rate. Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and Robert McClelland in the latest issue of Monthly Labor Review.
    ......
    Finally, and most importantly, there is rigorous empirical evidence on the actual quantitative impact of the geometric mean formula, because the BLS has continued to calculate Laspeyres indexes for all CPI basic indexes on an experimental basis for comparison with the official index. These experimental indexes show that the geometric mean led to an overall decrease in CPI growth of about 0.28 percentage point per year over the period from December 1999 to December 2004, close to the original BLS prediction that the impact would be approximately 0.20 percentage point per year.
    There's some very technical language in there, but check out what they are saying in that last part. In a very dry way they are saying

    A. The BLS still publishes and index the old way. (so you can use those figures if you so please.)
    B. The difference between the old way and new way is not 2.7% as some are claiming (cough, shadowstats, cough).
    C The difference is actually .28 % ( 3 divided by .28 is 10.7, so shadowstats is exaggerating the difference by a factor of almost 11.)
    D. When we made the change years ago we PUBLICALLY predicted we thought the difference would be somewhere around .20 %.


    The comments to that blog post are very interesting as well. If you want to dive into the whole thing you can this PDF that the blog references. It seems it was written in direct response to shadowstats.

    In the PDF they have a chart that shows the rise in prices for various goods from 1998 to 2008, actual measured prices. And they compare this to what their critics say the price should actually be and those prices are always higher because their critics are overestimating inflation and the actual measured price increases do not reflect this higher inflation level.
    Last edited by KevinNYC; 08-27-2012 at 11:50 AM.

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