ESPN Insider Request:JOHN HOLLINGER'S Player Ratings

[Rose]

btw [COLOR="Green"]REPPED[/COLOR]

got no green!

[OnceInADECADE]

got no green!

ISH[/B]] ou must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Rose again.

sORRY

[Rose]

sORRY

damn you rep system!

[OnceInADECADE]

damn you rep system!

R U getting 2k?

[Rose]

R U getting 2k?

**** yeah i'll pm you my gamertag in a sec

[OnceInADECADE]

**** yeah i'll pm you my gamertag in a sec

iight

got it thanks bro

[EnoughSaid]

Rose, can you please post the Heat one's?

[Rose]

Rose, can you please post the Heat one's?

MARIO CHALMERS, PG
Projection: 11.5 pts, 3.0 reb, 5.5 ast per 40 min; 11.33 PER | Player card

• Shoot-first point guard with good size and amazingly fast hands.
• Good 3-point shooter, but rarely penetrates and commits too many turnovers.
• Gambling defender who will leave openings. Professionalism an issue.

Chalmers delivered a disappointing second season, getting benched for repeated tardiness and staying on the pine due to repeated misses. He shot just 31.8 percent on 3s, which was a huge setback from his promising rookie performance and one that all but eliminated any reason to keep him on the floor.

At his best, Chalmers' ability to space the floor and play off the ball make him a useful weapon on a team like Miami that doesn't require a traditional point guard, but he has to make shots. Last season he rarely shot the ball and was even worse at creating shots for others; plus, he ranked 65th out of 71 guards in turnover ratio.


DWYANE WADE, SG
Projection: 27.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 7.2 ast per 40 min; 26.31 PER | Player card

• High-scoring slasher with unbelievable quickness and knack for drawing fouls.
• Willing passer but erratic jump shooter. Will lose handle on the drive.
• Phenomenal shot-blocker for size and a good defender. Loves to roam off ball.

Wade put together an amazing year considering he was in noticeably worse shape the first two months and lacked his usual elevation. He shot in the low 40s in late December, but from that point until the end of the year, he was pretty much an exact replica of his 2008-09 self.

Wade's whole game is getting to the basket. He shot 63.4 percent in the basket area and ranked fourth among shooting guards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. That's why it's amazing to see defenders bite on his shot-fake time after time; once you've got him shooting a jumper you've won, just let him shoot it. Wade shot 35.8 percent on long 2s and 30 percent on 3s, but seemingly twice without fail during every game, would have somebody land on him after he faked a 17-footer off the dribble.

Wade can take himself out of plays by roaming on defense, but he's such a dynamic disruptor that it's hard to complain -- especially since he chooses his risks much more carefully than he used to. Despite standing 6-foot-4, Wade blocked 1.1 shots per game; he's one of only three players 6-5 or shorter to average more than a block per game, and he's accomplished this four times. (Dennis Johnson and David Thompson are the others.) He also averaged a block and two steals in the same season for a second time in four years; the last player besides Wade to do so was Gerald Wallace in 2005-06.


LeBRON JAMES, SF
Projection: 29.0 pts, 7.3 reb, 8.3 ast per 40 min; 29.12 PER | Player card

• One-of-a-kind talent with point guard skills in a power forward's body.
• Physique and blinding speed overpower opponents on drives and transitions.
• Middling outside shot and free throw stroke are lone remaining weaknesses.

The disappointing ending in Cleveland doesn't change the fact James churned out one of history's most dominant regular seasons. His 31.19 PER didn't quite match the 31.76 he chalked up a year earlier, but since 1973-74 (we can't track it for earlier seasons because the league didn't track individual turnovers until then), he boasts two of the top six PER marks. The only player to top him is Michael Jordan, who owns the first, second, fourth and fifth positions.

Top Reg.-Season PER Since 1973-74
Player Team PER
Michael Jordan 1987-88 31.89
Michael Jordan 1990-91 31.79
LeBron James 2008-09 31.76
Michael Jordan 1989-90 31.31
Michael Jordan 1988-89 31.29
LeBron James 2009-10 31.19
Of all the phenomenal stats he put up, this one is the most remarkable: James converted an incredible 71.2 percent of his attempts at the basket area. To fully appreciate this mark, consider that nobody since 2004 has sunk more than 70 percent of their shots in that area with at least 150 attempts. Now consider that James had not 150 attempts, but 601 -- nearly eight a game. When he wasn't dunking, he was dishing -- he had a 5.83 pure point rating that was easily the best among non-point guards (see chart).

Top Pure Point Rating Among Non-Point Guards
Player Team PPR
LeBron James Cle 5.83
Manu Ginobili SA 4.31
Joe Johnson Atl 3.50
Hedo Turkoglu Tor 3.47
Jason Terry Dal 3.42
The ***** in the King's armor is that he's quite mortal if you can manage to keep him away from the basket. James hit only 39.1 percent of his 2-pointers that weren't at the rim, and that was a career high. Similarly, his other shooting numbers are mediocre: 33.3 percent on 3-pointers and 76.7 percent from the line. It's useful in end-of-shot-clock situations that he can get a jumper off any time he pleases, but the jumper is a liability earlier in the possession.


CHRIS BOSH, PF
Projection: 25.4 pts, 12.0 reb, 2.6 ast p/40 min; 23.88 PER | Player card

• Long, athletic frontcourt player with outstanding midrange jump shot.
• Lefty excels at driving either side to draw fouls. Likes to operate from left elbow.
• Excellent rebounder. Mobile defender but can be overpowered.

Bosh showed up with a little more muscle and put together the best season of his career, ranking fourth in the league in PER while setting new career-bests in points and rebounds per minute, shooting percentage, true shooting percentage (TS%) and usage rate. He's become a spectacular midrange shooter, making 46.3 percent and 48.2 percent of his long 2s the past two seasons.

Bosh also owns the free throw game. He ranked fourth among power forwards by averaging better than a foul shot for every two field goal attempts, and rarely reciprocated: No power forward fouled less often than Bosh's 2.69 per 40 minutes. Of course, the latter datum is partly an indictment -- he didn't give hard fouls on any of the myriad layups the Raptors gave up, especially during the final quarter of the season when, to put it kindly, he had it in cruise control.

Considering Bosh's slim build, perhaps the most impressive part of his season was that he ranked fifth among power forwards in defensive rebound rate. The biggest worry, on the other hand, is that once again he missed significant time with injuries. Bosh has played more than 70 games just once in the past five years.


JOEL ANTHONY, C
Projection: 6.5 pts, 8.1 reb, 0.5 ast per 40 min; 10.73 PER | Player card

• Hard-working shot-blocker with bad hands and limited offensive skills.
• Possesses good quickness and hustles. Won't shoot but makes foul shots.
• Undersized for 5. Amazingly poor rebounder considering his athleticism.

The Heat are justifiably pleased with Anthony's intangibles -- he works really hard, he defends well and he's one of the best shot-blockers in basketball, rejecting 3.3 shots per 40 minutes last season.

But the tangibles? Eccch. Anthony averaged a ridiculous 6.6 points per 40 minutes. He also posted the worst defensive rebound rate of any center at a comical 11.1. For comparison, 25 shooting guards rated better, as did 6-footers Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry. At the end of the day, he's a third center and at 28 he's not going to suddenly morph into anything more. Why Miami felt he merited a half-decade commitment is one of life's great mysteries.


KEY RESERVES
MIKE MILLER, SG
Projection: 11.4 pts, 7.1 reb, 4.5 ast per 40 min; 11.68 PER | Player card

• Outstanding shooter with textbook release. Strangely reluctant shooter.
• Willing passer -- too willing, actually -- who can put ball on floor going right.
• Excellent rebounder. Not terribly mobile and struggles on D, especially vs. 2s.

My big problem with Miller last season wasn't his unfortunate man-bob, but rather his inexplicable unwillingness to shoot. Miller led all shooting guards in TS%, assist ratio and rebound rate. So he was a human triple-double machine, right?

Wrong. His PER fell below the league average.

Miller is an awesome shooter, making 48 percent of his 3s, but he shot the ball only once every lunar eclipse. He finished 57th amongst shooting guards in usage rate and instead indulged his newfound unselfishness by passing up shots and forcing passes into traffic. Miller amassed the best assist ratio at his position … and the second-worst turnover ratio.

As for the rebounding, that's legit -- Miller might be the most underrated rebounder in basketball, averaging more than seven per 40 minutes for a third straight season. That's all well and good, but if LeBron and Wade are kicking the ball out to him wide open at the 3-point line, he's gotta shoot the rock.

[Rose]

ZYDRUNAS ILGAUSKAS, C
Projection: 13.8 pts, 9.4 reb, 1.3 ast per 40 min; 11.76 PER | Player card

[EnoughSaid]

Thanks dude.

[PowerGlove]

How many points are the heat going to score a game? 140?

13.8
13
10.7
13.7
10.2
11.0
11.5
27.9
29.0
25.4
6.5
11.4
=184.1

F8ck this, give me Hollinger's job ASAP.

[Rose]

How many points are the heat going to score a game? 140?

13.8
13
10.7
13.7
10.2
11.0
11.5
27.9
29.0
25.4
6.5
11.4
=184.1

F8ck this, give me Hollinger's job ASAP.

it's based on a per 40 minute basis. Yeah it took me a minute to figure it out too, I was like. Asik is gonna average 14 and 10 a game?!?!?!?! jesus! someone get this kid in the convo for rookie of the year!

[SEEBASS1234]

FU A.J

I thought we had something special

[OnceInADECADE]

I thought we had something special

IT'S OVER

[PowerGlove]

it's based on a per 40 minute basis. Yeah it took me a minute to figure it out too, I was like. Asik is gonna average 14 and 10 a game?!?!?!?! jesus! someone get this kid in the convo for rookie of the year!

Why would you base predictions on a 40 minute basis? That is damn lazy.