UK2K's Draft Lottery v1.0

[HOoopCityJones]

taking okafor over russell will set the lakers back 5 years, book it

okafor is going to be a massive bust

Further confirmation none of you know a damn thing about Basketball.

[SwishSquared]

John Wall was a horrible shooter when he was 19 too.

You don't want him either?

He shot 48% from the floor and 35% from the 3pt line, at 19. His mechanics and form are there, better than Wall at the same age.

He definitely is further along as a shooter compared to Wall, Rose, or Westbrook. I think, however, he's a lot closer to Tyreke Evans athletically than those other three guys. I'm not trying to knock him down- he'll be able to break down the D off the dribble pretty well. He's just not a blur. He does have nice passing vision and is learning to freeze the help man, which is a critical PnR skill.

I think his mechanics aren't that great- he apparently doesn't hold consistent form. His low FT% has plagued him since HS. The 35% from deep is encouraging since CBA uses the NBA line, but he shot in the low 60s in high school from the FT line. Can be tricky to differentiate signal/noise given the sample sizes. I think he eventually will be able to hit Js if the defense goes under screens, but I wonder how much floor spacing he'll need.

If you guys have the time, listen to the Dunc'd On podcast that had the guy from the DX videos as a guest. Really interesting listen.

[UK2K]

He definitely is further along as a shooter compared to Wall, Rose, or Westbrook. I think, however, he's a lot closer to Tyreke Evans athletically than those other three guys. I'm not trying to knock him down- he'll be able to break down the D off the dribble pretty well. He's just not a blur. He does have nice passing vision and is learning to freeze the help man, which is a critical PnR skill.

I think his mechanics aren't that great- he apparently doesn't hold consistent form. His low FT% has plagued him since HS. The 35% from deep is encouraging since CBA uses the NBA line, but he shot in the low 60s in high school from the FT line. Can be tricky to differentiate signal/noise given the sample sizes. I think he eventually will be able to hit Js if the defense goes under screens, but I wonder how much floor spacing he'll need.

If you guys have the time, listen to the Dunc'd On podcast that had the guy from the DX videos as a guest. Really interesting listen.

I think with work from professional coaches and trainers, almost anything can be fixed if you are willing to put in the effort.

I see him, and I see a 19 year old point guard who will be bigger than almost everyone who will guard him. A 6'8.5" wingspan, he's the perfect guy to check a Curry or CP3 in two years. Tall, lanky, and a nightmare to defend.

I think after Towns and Okafor, this guy has as good a shot as any of being an all-star.

[SwishSquared]

I think with work from professional coaches and trainers, almost anything can be fixed if you are willing to put in the effort.

I see him, and I see a 19 year old point guard who will be bigger than almost everyone who will guard him. A 6'8.5" wingspan, he's the perfect guy to check a Curry or CP3 in two years. Tall, lanky, and a nightmare to defend.

I think after Towns and Okafor, this guy has as good a shot as any of being an all-star.

I'm not trying to say he's a bust lol- I'd definitely draft him, but I have Russell above him right now. D-Russell is longer, might be a shade taller, is a better shooter & has better vision imo.

Completely agree on the ability to improve (within reason), but I'm just saying he's had a few years to sort out his FT% and it hasn't yet happened. I only bring that up since FT% can be an indicator for somebody's ability to shoot well from outside in the NBA. Granted, he's only had pro-level coaching for a season and anything he gets in the NBA will trump his CBA coaching/development.

I didn't watch any of his pro grames, so I'm curious how many of those 3PA were pull-ups, stepbacks, C&S, the location, etc. I think that plays a role in evaluating his shooting. For example, Winslow had concerns entering Duke whether he could shoot. He put in the work to learn how to hit open set shots, even if his mid range game and FT shooting leave a lot to be desired.

Like I said, Mudiay will break down the D off the dribble pretty well and he's shown some next-level offensive creation by freezing the helper in the PnR. That's really advanced for a teenager and shows he should be a good PG, if not great. I just have cooled on him a bit as I learned more about his shooting. I believe he'll improve his stroke, but I think he's got some major tweaking to do to improve his mechanics to have a more consistent outside shot.

[Sportal]

Swishsquared with the most interesting read I've had on here in ages..

What do you think Russell will be best at? PG or SG and why?

[Xiao Yao You]

Jazz need a center or a trade.

[UK2K]

Updated again.

Will do one more before the draft.

It would really help if the Knicks knew what they were doing, because I don't think the draft actually begins until the 1, 2, and 3 guys (in that order) are gone.

[ClipperRevival]

I think Russell is going to be a good one. I really hope Lakers take him at 2 but 90% likely, we go with Okafor. 5 years from now, people might be saying, "We had a chance to draft Russell."

[UK2K]

Swishsquared with the most interesting read I've had on here in ages..

What do you think Russell will be best at? PG or SG and why?

I have stated my convictions that Russell will play SG in the NBA. He just will.

I could be wrong, but IMO his talents are not going to be utilized unless he's running off screens into flare cuts and across the baseline on deep cuts. I think hes a Demar Derozan type player and I think will mimic Derozan's progression (year 5 he was dropping 23, 5 and 5).

[UK2K]

I think Russell is going to be a good one. I really hope Lakers take him at 2 but 90% likely, we go with Okafor. 5 years from now, people might be saying, "We had a chance to draft Russell."

I think you may be right.

The hype behind Okafor is too much, but I think Russell may be the better pick in 5 years.

[HurricaneKid]

Updated again.

Will do one more before the draft.

It would really help if the Knicks knew what they were doing, because I don't think the draft actually begins until the 1, 2, and 3 guys (in that order) are gone.

KAT is all but gone at pick #1.

I think its a crapshoot after that. I think Okafor is dropping a fair amount. A big who cannot defend even a little and his sole offensive skill is to post up (name the top 5 post up players in the league - hint there aren't 5).

He has motor issues, he doesn't love the game, fitness issues, terrible footwork, etc. I think his likelihood of busting is really high. Meanwhile, Zinger and Hezonja are climbing.

I'd bet pretty much anyone even money getting picks 2 and 3 right at this point. Because 3 is a big question mark too. I've seen a bunch of mocks with Russell going 4.

[ClipperRevival]

The karma thinking guy in me thinks NY ends up with Russell and they get the Curry they've always wanted. It's up to the Lakers to prevent that from happening and taking him at #2.

[ClipperRevival]

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/po...angelo-russell

According to some advanced analytics formula, Russell has the greatest chance of being a superstar.

[UK2K]

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/po...angelo-russell

According to some advanced analytics formula, Russell has the greatest chance of being a superstar.

[QUOTE]As much as analytics love Russell, it is also important to recognize that SPM predicts a high probability of him being a bust. Among SPM

[ClipperRevival]

Again, I think it is totally based on how he will be used in the league.

And I've had the PG/SG argument on these boards for the last week, but I think if he is drafted to be a PG and is used as a PG, he won't reach his ceiling.

Just as Harden/Derozan/Monta play SG but still handle the ball a lot in the half court, that's where he needs to be.

Not to mention defensively I can't see him staying in front of many NBA caliber PG's.

I don't understand why you are so stuck pigeon holing him to a specific position. I'm sure you are aware that the line between 1 and 2 is blurry in today's game. It's a PLUS that he can play both positions, not a negative. If he has to play the 2, he has the scoring abilities and right size to do that. If he has to play the 1, he is taller than most 1s and also has the vision, passing abilities and handles to do that.