Understanding the NBA Salary Cap when it reaches $100M.

[DMAVS41]

The bolded are good deals in THIS market, no matter the team situation.

Danny Green is a good deal in THIS market for the Spurs.

And Middleton is a terrible contract in this market, bad next season (unless he really takes off, which is possible), and good in 2017. He's making 14m per right now.. which equates out to (relative to today's market, as that's what most understand) 14m this year, then 10.69 then 8.86.

I will not admit that Middleton at 11m per year in the current market is a good deal, much less 14m.. not until he shows me something more. He is on his way, and one of my favorite up-and-coming players, so I expect he will get there. But he's in a curious case of being a FA right before he's truly proven something, but he has flashed so much potential that it's worth the risk.

I would have signed Middleton to 9-11m per year for 4-5 years, to make it a good signing. Right now, it's fraught with risk.

Dude....you just don't know Middleton if you think that is a bad contract. It's arguably the best deal of free agency so far.

Go read up on Middleton and listen to people in the know about him. He's 23 years old...already a great shooter...and a very good defender. His contract is amazing.

You are really really really off here.

That contract is being universally praises by the smart guys in the basketball community.

[UK2K]

Just because the cap is increasing doesn't mean it's ok to hand out terrible contracts.

A terrible contract now =/= A terrible contract after the cap increase.

[kshutts1]

Dude....you just don't know Middleton if you think that is a bad contract. It's arguably the best deal of free agency so far.

Go read up on Middleton and listen to people in the know about him. He's 23 years old...already a great shooter...and a very good defender. His contract is amazing.

You are really really really off here.

That contract is being universally praises by the smart guys in the basketball community.

You mean the same people that draft, and sign, based on potential?

I think Middleton has tons of upside still. He had a great, great year. Ended on a high note. 17/4/4 with great splits and legit D.

But if I'm running a business, where contracts are guaranteed, I'm not tossing 14m that players' way just yet. Now, one can argue that the Bucks are in a unique situation to offer that kind of money (a la Cleveland) in that they have their young pieces, and they're ready to stop drafting and start winning. I can buy in to that. But as a Bulls fan, I'm not sitting here upset that we didn't get him at that price.

[DMAVS41]

You mean the same people that draft, and sign, based on potential?

I think Middleton has tons of upside still. He had a great, great year. Ended on a high note. 17/4/4 with great splits and legit D.

But if I'm running a business, where contracts are guaranteed, I'm not tossing 14m that players' way just yet. Now, one can argue that the Bucks are in a unique situation to offer that kind of money (a la Cleveland) in that they have their young pieces, and they're ready to stop drafting and start winning. I can buy in to that. But as a Bulls fan, I'm not sitting here upset that we didn't get him at that price.

But it's not even on potential as much as it is on the market trends.

It's not like you only evaluate a player on what he's done...you also factor in things like skillset, ability, and age. Every sign points to Middleton improving his game and being the exact type of player teams need so badly now...a versatile player on both sides of the ball that can shoot. It's just exactly the skills needed for where the game is going.

Next season Chandler Parsons will likely get a 5 year over 100 million dollar contract offer if he's healthy.

He's maybe 10% better than Middleton...maybe....I'm not even sure he is given Middleton's defense is much better and Parsons needs the ball more.

But let's say he's 10% better....he'll be making over 30% more money a year essentially....and that trend is only going to grow over the length of the Middleton deal.

You are basically saying you'd rather pass on Middleton than sign him to what the Bucks did...which I just think is absolutely absurd.

[SwishSquared]

The bolded are good deals in THIS market, no matter the team situation.

Danny Green is a good deal in THIS market for the Spurs.

And Middleton is a terrible contract in this market, bad next season (unless he really takes off, which is possible), and good in 2017. He's making 14m per right now.. which equates out to (relative to today's market, as that's what most understand) 14m this year, then 10.69 then 8.86.

I will not admit that Middleton at 11m per year in the current market is a good deal, much less 14m.. not until he shows me something more. He is on his way, and one of my favorite up-and-coming players, so I expect he will get there. But he's in a curious case of being a FA right before he's truly proven something, but he has flashed so much potential that it's worth the risk.

I would have signed Middleton to 9-11m per year for 4-5 years, to make it a good signing. Right now, it's fraught with risk.

Somebody gladly would have given Middleton $14M if you didn't. He would have even sought & secured a 2+1 max deal potentially (a la Chandler Parsons) if you, acting as the Bucks, didn't sign him to a sufficient deal.

I get that right now he's not a $14M/year player for a $69M cap (or less), but he will be next year. Easily. Klay is making $17.5M/year going forward and is older and better on offense, but Middleton is a better defender. Demarre Carroll just got $15M/year for 4 years in his late 20s vs. at 23 for KM.

The Middleton contract will be very valuable in 2 years.

[DMAVS41]

Somebody gladly would have given Middleton $14M if you didn't. He would have even sought & secured a 2+1 max deal potentially (a la Chandler Parsons) if you, acting as the Bucks, didn't sign him to a sufficient deal.

I get that right now he's not a $14M/year player for a $69M cap (or less), but he will be next year. Easily. Klay is making $17.5M/year going forward and is older and better on offense, but Middleton is a better defender. Demarre Carroll just got $15M/year for 4 years in his late 20s vs. at 23 for KM.

The Middleton contract will be very valuable in 2 years.

Yep.

I actually think the Lakers and Sixers made a mistake by not going after him for the full max.

Worst case is the Bucks match....best case is you get a great 23 year old player on a very good contract....that will be excellent for trading if you don't want to keep him long term.

That is the kind of deal the Lakers should have been looking to pull off rather than chasing aging stars like LMA.

The Bucks got a steal...very nice.

[SwishSquared]

Yep.

I actually think the Lakers and Sixers made a mistake by not going after him for the full max.

Worst case is the Bucks match....best case is you get a great 23 year old player on a very good contract....that will be excellent for trading if you don't want to keep him long term.

That is the kind of deal the Lakers should have been looking to pull off rather than chasing aging stars like LMA.

The Bucks got a steal...very nice.

100% Agree. I told my friend (big Laker fan) months ago to hope to chase with a max, even if it's aggressive like Parsons' deal. That guy is going to be really, really good.

I'm a little surprised Hinkie didn't even try to max him out b/c he's a perfect fit for how they play on offense and defense. Also thought the Blazers should have targeted him once it became apparent that LMA was gone, as he would have been a really great fit there too.

I think Middleton should have demanded a max from the Bucks honestly. I think he/his agent sold him short to a degree. Is the last year a player option, or has that not been released yet? Maybe that was the trade-off

[DMAVS41]

100% Agree. I told my friend (big Laker fan) months ago to hope to chase with a max, even if it's aggressive like Parsons' deal. That guy is going to be really, really good.

I'm a little surprised Hinkie didn't even try to max him out b/c he's a perfect fit for how they play on offense and defense. Also thought the Blazers should have targeted him once it became apparent that LMA was gone, as he would have been a really great fit there too.

I think Middleton should have demanded a max from the Bucks honestly. I think he/his agent sold him short to a degree. Is the last year a player option, or has that not been released yet? Maybe that was the trade-off

Yep....worst case scenario is you make another team pay more for a player.

Best case...you get said player that is key to what every team wants.

Love the Blazers idea. I think that would have been a better idea than going for Aminu and some of the guys they did.

I still like what the Blazers have done, but they could have done that if the Bucks matched anyway. In fact, they might have ended up getting a better deal on Aminu if he lingered the first 3 days. Although I'm not sure what the market actually was for him....but 7.5 a year for Aminu isn't anything worth going crazy over.

[kshutts1]

Just not my style to hand out max contract offers to players that, at best, averaged 17/4/4.

And using other bad contracts to show why this one is not-as-bad (which I agree with) is silly, IMO. Maybe not realistic, but silly nonetheless.

[SwishSquared]

Just not my style to hand out max contract offers to players that, at best, averaged 17/4/4.

And using other bad contracts to show why this one is not-as-bad (which I agree with) is silly, IMO. Maybe not realistic, but silly nonetheless.

You may disagree with the dollar amounts, but view these deals as % of expected cap in 2016-2017. That's how you should judge these. A supermax next year is $30M or so. Isn't Middleton worth roughly half that?

The market spoke and that's what people are paying for these guys. What's silly to reacting to how the market set the prices? Reacting to these deals based on today's dollars is the wrong view because the reality is this cap doesn't matter as much as you're thinking. It's using space this summer to snag bargains going forward, locking up as many prime years as possible.

Do you dislike the Leonard or Klay contracts? Because nobody I know is bashing those deals nor the KM deal.

[DMAVS41]

Just not my style to hand out max contract offers to players that, at best, averaged 17/4/4.

And using other bad contracts to show why this one is not-as-bad (which I agree with) is silly, IMO. Maybe not realistic, but silly nonetheless.

At some point you can't claim every contract is a bad contract though. The market is the market.

If Brandon Knight and Reggie Jackson get 70 and 80 million...yea, those are bad deals imo, but they are kind of the norm...and it's only trending more in that direction over at least the next 2 years.

There is nothing about the Middleton contract that is bad.

You can choose not to pay him, but I think that is a huge mistake to not pay a 23 year old player that can shoot and play good defense...that is exactly what every NBA team is looking for.

[kshutts1]

You may disagree with the dollar amounts, but view these deals as % of expected cap in 2016-2017. That's how you should judge these. A supermax next year is $30M or so. Isn't Middleton worth roughly half that?

The market spoke and that's what people are paying for these guys. What's silly to reacting to how the market set the prices? Reacting to these deals based on today's dollars is the wrong view because the reality is this cap doesn't matter as much as you're thinking. It's using space this summer to snag bargains going forward, locking up as many prime years as possible.

Do you dislike the Leonard or Klay contracts? Because nobody I know is bashing those deals nor the KM deal.

No, that's not how it should be viewed. Because we need to take in to account the upcoming season, as well. Skews the numbers.

And I'm not "bashing" the deal in particular. It's one of the better deals of the summer, though that's not saying much. Just used it as an example of a team overpaying in the current market because they have the fall-back of the increased cap as insurance.

[DMAVS41]

No, that's not how it should be viewed. Because we need to take in to account the upcoming season, as well. Skews the numbers.

And I'm not "bashing" the deal in particular. It's one of the better deals of the summer, though that's not saying much. Just used it as an example of a team overpaying in the current market because they have the fall-back of the increased cap as insurance.

What?

You just got done calling it a terrible contract....


And you should absolutely view a long term deal with a 23 year old...in the long term. Why on earth would you only look at if for 1 year when the dude is 23 and he's on a team that isn't contending for a title now anyway, but rather building something long term.

I'm so confused as to your position.

[HurricaneKid]

The bolded are good deals in THIS market, no matter the team situation.

Danny Green is a good deal in THIS market for the Spurs.

And Middleton is a terrible contract in this market, bad next season (unless he really takes off, which is possible), and good in 2017. He's making 14m per right now.. which equates out to (relative to today's market, as that's what most understand) 14m this year, then 10.69 then 8.86.

I will not admit that Middleton at 11m per year in the current market is a good deal, much less 14m.. not until he shows me something more. He is on his way, and one of my favorite up-and-coming players, so I expect he will get there. But he's in a curious case of being a FA right before he's truly proven something, but he has flashed so much potential that it's worth the risk.

I would have signed Middleton to 9-11m per year for 4-5 years, to make it a good signing. Right now, it's fraught with risk.

You are insane. He was top 10 in the NBA in RAPM, is probably the best defensive 2 in the league (and at 6'8" can guard 2, 3, even switch on most 4s), has a career 3pt% > 40%. And he is 23. He checks ALL the boxes. You think you are going to get that for 9M? Freaking Jerebko makes almost that.

C'mon man. There are only a handful of posters here I demand more from and you are one of them.

[Levity]

It's going to be a painful time when this new CBA kicks in and the Chandler Parsons of the world are expecting 20+ a year. That's where this is headed.