Predict 2013 Lebron stats in 1993 NBA

[3ball]

Terrible OFFENSE

Fixed.. We saw Boris Diaw forced Lebron into midrange and forearm push-offs - this kind of mechanical, stone-hands touch wasn't good enough to be a 27+ ppg scorer in the 80's or 90's:





That's ugly.. His touch is a 1 out of 10 compared to say, Bob McAdoo.

[Bless Mathews]

We saw Boris Diaw forced Lebron into midrange and forearm push-offs - this kind of mechanical, stone-hands touch wasn't good enough to be a 27+ ppg scorer in the 80's or 90's:

Damn. Bron Bron is just not fOnky at all.

About as graceful as 6 foot tall Scandinavia bitch trying to be sexy in bed.

[3ball]

As the gif shows, today's 3-point shooting/spacing and hand-check ban makes penetration an automatic, built-in component of the game - look how airy and contact-free Parker's drive into the lane is - it looks more like a performance routine of some sort than a basketball drive.

However, 1993 had less than half the 3-point production that today's game uses to open up the lane.. The paint congestion would force Lebron to pull-up for more midrange jumpshots, like everyone else back then.. The lack of 3-point-shooting personnel would also reduce the efficiency of screen-roll/drive-and-kick - he simply would NOT be using screen-roll as much as he does in today's game.. He'd be forced to use midrange, post and isolation - all areas he's average to bad in..

[3ball]

1981 - Illegal Defense Guidelines put in place to increase scoring and open up the paint

Passage from Bill Simmons' (Globally known NBA analyst, well respected publically) book

[COLOR="Red"]In 2005, paint-camping and zone was BANNED inside the 16 x 19 foot painted area[/COLOR] - inside the paint, defenders must stay within "armslength" (about 3 feet), which is the exact opposite of a zone.

"Armslength" is actually the strictest defense possible outside of having defenders stand shoulder-to-shoulder.. yet this strict policy governs today's defenders in the most important area of the floor: the paint.

Offenses have had to adjust to the modern, strong side flooding defenses

Remember - the defensive 3 seconds rule banned paint-camping... Paint-camping is a superior defensive tactic to today's flooding.. Furthermore, due to defensive 3 seconds, defenders must shade/flood to OUTSIDE the paint, leaving the paint unprotected and allowing quick wings to beat defenders to the open paint (as opposed to defenders already being in the paint waiting on penetrators, like previous eras).

Finally, today's 3-point shooting and the resulting spacing negates the current defensive schemes.. It's all nice and good that defenders are flooding, but the spacing makes them help from further away - spacing makes defenders help from further away - that's the definition of spacing... The further distance of today's help defenders isn't disputable - it's physics... Spacing affords today's players more time and room to operate than ever before.

Elite scorer numbers are down across the board

This is factually incorrect - there were only two 30-point scorers in the 90's - MJ six times and Malone once... In the 2000's there have been many 30 point scorers.. Today's much higher number of 30-point scorers is due to increaseed 3-point shooting which has spread the floor, hand-check ban, and defensive 3 seconds.

Remember, Wade and Westbrook led league in scoring in 2009 and 2015 with a worse 3-point shot and far worse mid-range shot than MJ.. Nor could they double-pump with ease from the FT line like MJ.. And let's compare the defenses they faced:

[COLOR="Indigo"]PREVIOUS ERA: paint-camping... no-spacing... hand-checking[/COLOR]
[COLOR="DarkRed"]TODAY'S ERA:[COLOR="White"].....[/COLOR] shading..[COLOR="White"]........[/COLOR] spacing.. [COLOR="White"]..[/COLOR]no hand-checking[/COLOR]


I guess that's why MJ was able to average 37 PPG on 59% TS despite shooting all 2-pointers amidst every-possession double-teams... Only the goat has it like that.

[GIF REACTION]

1981 - Illegal Defense Guidelines put in place to [COLOR="Red"]increase scoring and open up the paint[/COLOR]
Passage from Bill Simmons' (Globally known NBA analyst, well respected publically) book
[QUOTE]The new wave of coaches made defenses sophisticated enough by 1981 that [B][COLOR="Red"]the league created an

[OldSchoolBBall]

No idea how anyone can think that Lebron is equal to - much less better than - Jordan. It's pretty clear that he's not. I think his 2-3 best seasons ('09, '13 etc.) may COMPARE to '88 or '89 Jordan, but '90-'93 Jordan was better than Lebron has ever been by a decent margin. Not a large gap, but definitely clear.

[3ball]

Illegal Defense Rules


2a. Weak side defenders may come in the pro lane (16’), but not in the college lane (12’) [COLOR="Red"]for more than three seconds[/COLOR].

As the bolded red shows, previous era defenders could remain INDEFINITELY in the "pro" lane, or the outer partition of the paint - today's defenders can't do that - they have a max of 3 seconds.

For the inner part of the paint (college lane), weakside defenders can stay for up to 3 seconds, just like today's defenders.

2b. Defender on post player is allowed in defensive three-second area (A post player is any player [COLOR="Blue"]adjacent[/COLOR] to paint area).

[COLOR="darkRed"]2b. When a defensive player is guarding an offensive player who is [COLOR="Blue"]adjacent[/COLOR] (posted-up) to the 3-second lane, the defensive player may be within the "inside lane" area with no time limitations. An offensive player shall be ruled as "postedup" when he is within 3' of the free throw lane line. A hash mark on the baseline denotes the 3' area.[/COLOR]

Rule 2b is a legal paint-camping provision.

As you can see, defenders were allowed to stay in the paint "with no time limitation" if their man was in the paint already, or "adjacent" to the paint - "adjacent" is defined as when the offensive player is within 3 feet of either side of the paint, as denoted by hash marks on the baseline.. The hash marks are the only thing refs had to eyeball if an offensive player was "adjacent"/within 3 feet, or further than 3 feet/in violation, which is why defenders often camped in the paint while their man was all the way at the 3-point line (no enforcement).

The criteria needed to paint-camp (a defender's man being in the paint or within 3 feet of either side) was always fulfilled in previous eras due to the lack of 3-point shooting and spacing - coaches foolishly ran offenses that didn't shoot threes and positioned players close to the rim, which activated this legal-paint camping provision of Rule 2b.. The full Illegal Defense Guidelines from the NBA rule book are [COLOR="Blue"]here[/COLOR], also shown at realgm here.

2c. Player without ball may not be double-teamed from weak side.

Rule 2c is the same thing as today's flooding - but flooding isn't an advantage for today's game.. Today's 3-pointers/spacing and the resulting further distance of help defenders makes offensive players more dangerous when they catch the ball, which necessitates extra tactics so the ballhandler isn't as secluded by the spacing - but the flooding tactic merely makes the concentration of defenders equivalent to an un-spaced court where help defenders were already in closer proximity.

Lack of spacing and closer proximity of help defenders made previous eras better-equipped to handle a player that has the ball without needing risky gambles like flooding, where big men come away from the rim to flood in a mismatch outside the paint.. Instead, the lack of 3-point shooting kept offensive players closer to the paint, which allowed defenders to paint-camp when their man was in the paint or within 3 feet of either side (see Rule 2b above).. Paint-camping is a more equitable way to defend the entire court, without necessitating the extra rotations and leaving guys wide open that flooding requires.

2d. Offensive player above foul line and inside circle must be played by defender inside dotted line (upper part of the paint).

This allows defenders to stand in the upper part of the paint above the dotted line INDEFNITELY when their man is at college 3-point distance (the tip of the circle).

Otoh, today's defenders can NEVER stay in the paint for longer than 3 seconds unless they're within "armslength".. But being on the dotted line in the paint is way out of armslength of the college 3-point line (tip of circle).

By virtue of being able to stay in the paint indefinitely, previous era defenders have more flexibility in this spot (when a defender's man is at the top of the circle).

2e. If offensive player is above the top of the circle, defender must come to a position above foul line. [COLOR="Red"](within 2.9 seconds)[/COLOR]

This is the same as today - when an offensive player is above the tip of circle, his defender can't sag into the paint for more than 3 seconds.. Rule 2e gives the defender 3 seconds, just like today's rule.

The full Illegal Defense Guidelines from the NBA rule book found [COLOR="Blue"]here[/COLOR], also shown at realgm here

Today's game has shooting-enforced spacing, not rule-enforced spacing

Today's game has rule-enforced spacing in the paint ("armslength").... and spacing-enforced spacing outside paint via 3-pointers.

Otoh, previous eras didn't have spacing-enforced spacing (no 3's).

They didn't have material rules-enforced spacing either - defenders could paint-camp and they could sag off 3-point shooters to the edge of the paint just like today's defenders.

Elite scorer numbers are down across the board

False - there were only two 30-point scorers in the entire 90's - MJ did it 6 times and Karl Malone once - that's only 2 guys.. But in the 2000's there have been many 30-point scorers.. It's like night and day.

Furthermore, there are only 2 ball-dominators never even broke 25 ppg in the 90's!!!... The game just wasn't set up for ball-dominators back then like it is now.. Otoh, the no spacing and hand-checking of previous eras are the 2 things least conducive to penetration.

ball movement and [COLOR="Red"]clever schemes[/COLOR] are required for these elite scorers to hit the box score.

False again - over 50% of Harden and Lebron's offense comes from isolations and screen-roll.. It was 60% for Lebron in the playoffs.. 50-60% is standard for point guards and ball-dominators like Harden, Lebron, various other wings, and virtually all PG's.. So offenses aren't more "clever" - it's just one drive-and-kick after another.

One reason teams can use drive-and-kick so easily is because zone is only allowed OUTSIDE the paint.. Inside the 16 x 19 ft paint, defenders must stay within "armslength" (about 3 feet) to remain in the paint, which is the opposite of a zone and the strictest defense possible outside of having defenders stand shoulder-to-shoulder.. Yet this strict no-paint-camping, no-zone policy is what governs the most important area of the floor: the paint.

George Karl on how the rule changes have made post ups inefficient

George Karl is wrong..

It's a mathematical fact that without 3-pointers, the efficiency of screen rolls/drive-and-kick plummets and becomes not worthwhile compared to post-ups.. This proves that the decline in post-ups is due to higher efficiency drive-and-kick made possible by 3-pointers, not defensive tactics.. In the absence of 3-pointers, no amount of defensive strategy could prevent post-ups from supplanting drive-and-kick.

Since post-ups, mid-range, off-ball and isolations were the only things left in the 80's without the 3-pointers needed to make drive-and-kick back worthwhile, we can say with certainty that Lebron would be half the player back then - he's simply not elite in any of these areas.

2001 - Removal of Illegal Defense Guidelines

Purpose: To encourage ball movement and team play through giving defenses more freedom to defend, [COLOR="Red"]particularly help defense from the weak side[/COLOR], which was extremely restricted from 1981-2001 with the Illegal defense guideline in place

The NBA said their rule changes were meant to create superior spacing, which put ALL defenders a further distance away from helping, especially weakside help defenders.

Specifically, the NBA said they wanted to increase drive-and-kick to encourage 3's and make spacing better, so they robbed the defense of their hands (literally) and forced them to keep the paint clear (defensive 3 seconds) to "open up the game".. Here the NBA's official statements on the rule changes:

http://www.nba.com/2009/news/feature...son/index.html

You simply cannot compare stats across eras without mentioning the rule changes

[COLOR="Indigo"]PREVIOUS ERA: paint-camping... no-spacing... hand-checking[/COLOR]
[COLOR="DarkRed"]TODAY'S ERA:[COLOR="White"].....[/COLOR] shading..[COLOR="White"]........[/COLOR] spacing.. [COLOR="White"]..[/COLOR]no hand-checking[/COLOR]


Remember, Wade and Westbrook led league in scoring in 2009 and 2015 with a worse 3-point shot and far worse mid-range shot than MJ.. Nor could they double-pump with ease from the FT line like MJ.. And let's compare the defenses they faced:

I guess that's why MJ was able to average 37 PPG on 59% TS despite shooting all 2-pointers amidst every-possession double-teams... Only the goat has it like that.
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[scandisk_]

GIF REACTION = 3ball